How will the attack on Iran impact the Macro economy and markets?

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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As we all know, politics is forbidden on METAR. Everyone knows by now that the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

How will the attack on Iran impact the Macro economy and markets? It’s not at all clear that there will be any impact considering that Iran’s oil has been sanctioned by the U.S. for years. Or maybe the repercussions will upset the markets. Will we have another 1973 experience?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/business/energy-environment/oil-gas-iran-attack.html

Oil Shipments in Persian Gulf Already Disrupted by Iran Attack

Tankers have begun to steer clear of the region and the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to push up energy prices.

By Rebecca F. Elliott and Peter Eavis, The New York Times, Feb. 28, 2026

The widening military conflict in the Persian Gulf quickly began to disrupt shipping in one of the world’s biggest oil-and-gas producing regions, threatening to send energy prices soaring.

Oil markets were closed on Saturday when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran that spurred retaliatory strikes across the Middle East.

But shipping companies quickly began trying to steer clear of the region and the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway on Iran’s southern border through which ships typically carry about one-fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas to market…

Analysts widely expect global oil prices, which ended Friday near $73 a barrel, to climb considerably when markets open on Sunday evening. Prices are already up about 20 percent so far this year.

The big question is how long prices will remain elevated. … [end quote]

The conflict could disrupt shipping via the Red Sea (due to Houthi attacks) as well as the Strait of Hormuz.

But it’s really too early to say how long the disruptions will last and how they will affect the world economy and markets. Because it’s a weekend the markets are closed but there’s still a pop in the price of oil and flight-to-safety in Treasuries and gold.

The markets have apparently front-run the attack since the U.S. moved major sea power to the area over the past week.

Wendy

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Oil is low in price. Going higher won’t be that dramatic. It won’t be all that much higher. The US economy is slowing. I’d venture the global economy is mostly slowing down.

The wealth effect is in danger of falling out.

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All the discussions on this topic appeared to have been censored this morning.

The biggest threat to the US Economy is that we will amass a multi-trillion dollar debt, just like we did as a result of the expensive and embarrassing misadventure in Iraq & Afghanistan.

intercst

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Have you heard of any divisions being mobilized?

DB2

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@WendyBG- In another thread, I posted the tanker rates for certain major routes for dirty and clean tankers. Prior to the attack on Iran, the TD3C route - Middle East Gulf (MEG)-to-China was @ 218K daily, and the TC1 route Middle East Gulf (MEG)-to-Japan was @ $53,7K daily. I think, with the current developments, each if those rates moves higher.

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Hopefully if we bomb them enough, we can get Iran to agree to the same deal we pulled out of.

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Oh, Canada…

Canada backs United States actions in Iran
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/28/mark-carney-canada-iran-strikes-00805631
“Canada supports the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security,” he said…

“Despite numerous diplomatic efforts, Iran has neither fully dismantled its nuclear program, halted all enrichment activities, nor ended its support for regional terrorist proxy groups,” Carney said.

DB2

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Tehran is celebrating.

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@drbob
Thanks, I would have gone to sleep not knowing of this and I think this signifies “something” more than the minimal in USA Canada relationship, almost a challenge to the US to match this minimal level of alliance…

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Here is another indication of new developments - insurance

Insurers mull price hikes for ships in Gulf (FRO:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha

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David,

As a progressive labour person I think we are not dealing with the issues well when we deny Trump.

He does enough wrong to oppose him without us being in an all or nothing.

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I’m sure Mr. Carney is very sincere, but the US government previously stated in no uncertain terms that the Iran nuclear program was completely and totally obliterated in a previous bombing.

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No intelligent person ever thought that the Iran nuclear program was completely and totally obliterated in the previous bombing. Trump saying it was so is BS.

Iran has always wanted to enrichment capability for their commercial nuclear power program which does not requires enrichment to bomb grade level.

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I’ve been trying to follow the events. What I hear is 99% opinion and a fact here and there. If we don’t even know what is happeing how do you expect us to know the future?

For one, it depends on the outcome of the war, does the regime fall or survive. If it falls, who takes over. What ideology do the people taking over have?

An easier question to answer? What are we, individually, doing about it? Me, just listening to the events unfolding, as best I can.

The Captain

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That’s pretty irrelevant given two facts:

Sanctioned or not, Iranian oil has found its way into the world economy, primarily through China. Iran produces about 4% of world oil, and ranks 9th on the list (just above Kuwait, which as I recall we went to war to prevent Saddam from taking over.)

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Knowing that oil is fungible and that China is not likely to simply forgo a pretty good slice of petroleum, they will likely begin buying in other markets, which would probably bid up prices in the short term by some non-trivial, but non-world threatening amount.

Second, and possibly more important, oil from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, and Iran all pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the way to the rest of the world. That Strait is around 20 miles wide at the narrowest point, which happens to be between Iran and Saudi Arabia. So while not super narrow (like, say, the Suez) it’s also well within the ability of a rogue nation to “discourage” if not disrupt shipping, should they want to and have that ability. Will whoever the new leaders of Iran choose to do so? That depends a LOT on the political situation in Iran, and therefore the destiny of the oil market, at least in the short term.

There is simply no telling on “what will happen”, but if you are a pessimist, then “what could happen” is not pretty.

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Disrupting 20%-30% of the world’s oil and gas supply could be a very big deal.

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The first casualty of war is truth.

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The major question is how will Iran respond. Will they make peace? Or will they seek alliances and attack. Ukraine makes it unlikely Russia can support their effort. China seems unlikely. Could N Korea come to their aid. Could they broker a nuclear weapon.

So far response has been missiles in inventory. Larger response might take longer. A month or more.

After the previous attack you expect them to beef up their air defenses. So far no indication they achieved that.

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The US sent in troops for those wars. Seems we have learned to minimize such possibilities.

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Their previous Russian-made defenses certainly weren’t up to the task back in June. I wouldn’t expect anything better this time around (and they have less of it).

US and Israeli air forces have achieved air supremacy in less than a day. The Israelis launched more sorties than they did in the entire 12 days in June.

DB2

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