Israel’s opening strike was undoubtedly a tactical success. Caught off guard by the assumption that Israel wouldn’t act before the sixth round of nuclear talks, Iranian leaders had taken no precautions. Many were asleep in their homes in northern Tehran, alongside their families, when Israeli strikes killed them in their beds. Iran’s air defenses were also unprepared and inactive.
Israel aimed to eliminate as many Iranian commanders as possible to disrupt Iran’s command and control structure and effectively paralyze its military response. Initially, the strikes were so successful — and Iran so subdued — that it was unclear whether Tehran retained any meaningful capacity to retaliate.
But within 18 hours, Iran had restructured its chain of command, activated its air defenses, and, most critically, launched four missile barrages aimed primarily at Israeli air defense systems. Many of the missiles penetrated Israel’s multilayered defenses, lighting up the Tel Aviv skyline as they struck their targets — including a direct hit on Israel’s Ministry of Defense.
That Tehran could mount such a response just hours after losing several top military commanders was the first clear sign that Israel’s initial success would be short-lived.
despite inflicting significant damage on the Natanz nuclear site, Israel has failed to penetrate the far more critical and heavily fortified Fordow facility. As a result, the actual impact on Iran’s nuclear program appears limited.
While Israel likely holds escalation dominance, it faces a critical disadvantage: it has fewer air defense interceptors than Iran has long-range missiles. Israel needs a swift and decisive victory — but a prolonged war of attrition may ultimately favor Iran. And such a victory now seems out of reach.
Can Israel afford a war of attrition with Gaza, Syria & Lebanon already on its plate?
Initially Iran was rocked but came back strong in 18 hours.
There are reports that Israel’s jets were shot down. Denied. I have seen no photos of the downed aircraft or captured pilots or their bodies. Have you?
I think Iran received a significant blow. Yes, they have lots of missiles. Not much else. Israel much prefers to destroy them on the ground rather than in the air.
Israel claims air superiority over Tehran. Do you disagree?
We have photos of the electric substations and their backups serving the uranium enrichment destroyed. Iran’s nuclear program is not stopped but it clearly is slowed.
Iran was caught with their pants down and had many senior commanders killed but responded with missile attacks within 18 hours.And some of those missiles are penetrating Israeli air space. Missile damage is not a one way street.
Despite the military censorship imposed by the Israeli authorities on the media to prevent the exposure of the damage, images showed massive destruction in central Israel, particularly Tel Aviv, as a result of Iranian missiles and drones, the report noted.
We will see going forward whether Israel jets remain impervious to air defense missiles. It’s early days yet.
As readers who have been following Israel’s attack on Iran and Iran’s response so far have likely worked out, things are not working out according to Israel’s plan, save perhaps the getting the US involved part. We’ll give some more detail below, but Iran appears to now be able to interdict most Israeli strikes, save ones from inside Iran, which Simplicius claims are mainly from Iran’s dissident group MEK, with Israeli assistance. By contrast, many and perhaps most Iran missile strikes on Israel seem to be getting through. Keep in mind, Iran is not even using its best kit, since it is mainly using older missiles to get Israel to deplete its defense stocks.
So far, there is no evidence that Israel has a plan B beyond getting the US committed. If Israel does not back off, it is looking at a protracted conflict, which does not remotely favor them.
We should remember Iran’s willingness to sacrifice in the 8 years of attrition with Iraq.
DUBAI, June 16 (Reuters) - Tehran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to press U.S. President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire with Iran in return for Iranian flexibility in nuclear negotiations, two Iranian and three regional sources told Reuters on Monday.
Gulf leaders and their top diplomats worked the phones all weekend, speaking to each other, to Tehran, Washington and beyond in an effort to prevent a widening of the biggest ever confrontation between longstanding enemies Israel and Iran.
Iran is willing to be flexible in the nuclear talks if a ceasefire is reached, one of the Iranian sources said.
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That last sentence could be important. If true, the Iranians seem more willing to negotiate some kind of deal compared to, say, last week. We shall see.
Consider the possibility that the Israelis figure they can start a war, and force the US to finish it for them?
Former Israeli Defense Minister Gallant saying the US is “obligated” to help Israel…at the 3:50 mark.
Yes, the US has been itching for an excuse to beat up Iran, ever since the Iranians had the bad form to tip over a US client, just because he was a brutal, repressive, tyrant. But the US, so blatantly, being Israel’s slave?
The US had active negotiations with Iran. TIG wants another “arty” deal, so he can take another victory lap as 'the bestest deal maker in the history of the world".
Consider a hypothetical. Maybe Israel was afraid he would be a success, so whipped up a lot of hysterical talking heads about how Iran could have bombs in a couple weeks, and launched their war, to abort the US/Iran talks? Then Israel leverages it’s lobbyists in the US, to force the US to finish the war Israel started, because there is no way Israel could really defeat a country the size of Iran, from a thousand miles away, using only air power.
Isn’t that the one that was supplied by the Russians and was pretty much destroyed by Israel over the last year?
Israel responded to the April 2024 Iranian attack by striking a Tomb Stone target engagement radar that was part of an Iranian S-300 air defense system in central Iran. Eliminating a target engagement radar renders a surface-to-air missile battery unable to track and engage targets…
The IDF strikes into Iran in April and October 2024 rendered Iran’s four S-300 air defense systems inoperable.
Just watched the local “news” at noon. TIG still wants to do an “arty” deal. Israel wants to knock off the head Ayatollah, which the media reported TIG had previously vetoed. There was discussion on Amanpour, last night, about apparent Israeli attempts to decap the entire Iranian regime, with rumors the objective is regime change.
The “news” also ran the expected, daily, gas price hysteria piece.
Ya think? Israel has wanted regime change for decades as Iran has tried to encircle Israel, but American leaders have been reluctant to go there. Somehow they don’t get the “Death to America” thing.
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” Trump added. “He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”
So, is the pressure from the Israel lobby winning out over self-aggrandizement over another “arty deal”?
Seems apparent that, the only way to really be sure any Iranian nuke program is dead and buried, is to occupy the country. Anyone up for that? The population of Iran is 90M, double that of Iraq. Population of Israel is less than 10M. So, who would get the job of occupying Iran? Notice, we are hearing the same sort of narrative that we heard about Iraq: the population hate the regime, probably soon to be followed by “US troops will be welcomed as liberators”.