I am financially completely out of the USA except for my extremely illiquid oil and gas interests….how ironic that they are on a rocket ship up.
The crux macroeconomic moment will be the mid-term elections, if we have them.
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This war taught me something. Tfg can act out in the extreme and congress will back him. He needs to default before the elections or he’ll be overruled
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@Chapter3 thanks for the encouragement! I appreciate it. 
Wendy
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Leap1:
The war is for the liberation of the persians, listen to them. The only major human targets are the regimes leaders. The rest of it is inaccurate ranting.
You are listening to reports about the war through the filters applied by propagandists. The tales about why we are at war and our hopes for a final outcome keep changing and currently seem to be written by video game authors.
This is a board designed to help protect your wealth and project future actions based on macroeconomics. Any alleged moral high ground (if any) talked about by our government is probably hot air and, regardless, won’t prevent losses or enhance profitability. The length of the war, as well as the functional achievements that may (or may not) eventually be accomplished will.
Jeff
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I am not disagreeing with that.
But the lens needs some cleaning. We have killed around 600 people in over one week. Relentless bombing being done. The Iranians killed 40k of their own people in less than two days. It is liberation listen to them.
Trump decided not to involve ground troops or to involve the Kurds in an offensive. We are not giving any excuse to the Iranian Guard to rally support.
But our economy in the west is going to be savaged. I am waking up to that.
I think it is one more reason to default. ASSS PLLANNNED
There is the lie that the Jews are in control. Ancient reoccurring lie. The Arabs are also targets for the Guard, that has been going on for decades. The Arabs are not necessarily against this war.
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The hurricane starts today. Investors have had the weekend to assess. Iran has elected a new leader, who is by most measures, more extreme than the one we killed (and who is his son, so: vendetta.) The Strait of Hormuz is, for all practical purposes, closed. We cannot offer enough “insurance” to make it worthwhile going through, and who wants to bank on us paying off even if there was a sinking given our variable policies from day to day?
Iran is intent on widening the conflict to bring pain to the US via second-parties, and it is not difficult to do so given cheap drones and the expense of countermeasures. The US has no strategic plan other than “bombs”, which has, in all of human history since the invention of aircraft, never worked to effect a meaningful change in attitude, absent total destruction (see: Hiroshima, Dresden, or the Battle of Berlin.)
Meanwhile oil prices are skyrocketing worldwide, and it seems we have been thrown into the Briar Patch without a clear way out. The market was already toppy, there are hundreds of billions allocated to projects intended to replace workers - so happy days aren’t here again; I would think.
I took the opportunity on Friday to clear out a tiny bit of deadwood from the portfolio, the rest I will sit on because its loaded with stalwarts: Berkshire, Exxon, and so on. Two of my three shorts are green: Palantir and Nvidia. My Tesla short is negative, but only a few bucks and I expect that one to turn green soon as well.
I am keeping my drone etf (DRNZ) just because the news headlines should support the entire industry, about which I know nothing. Also SHLD, as in “defense” (war) because who knows who profits from this except, well, lots of them.
Note: I appreciate the weekly Control Panel, although generally I do not follow all the links. It does make for interesting commentary, which I’m pretty sure is the mission of the board. More info is generally better, I thought.
The amount of economic activity to replace the munitions will be dwarfed by the increasing cost of energy throughout all sectors of the economy, including the pocketbook hit by Americans many of whom will cut back in other areas to compensate. So yes, but seriously, NO.
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Only in the same way that if a house burned down, It would stimulate the economy by needing to buy new carpet.
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Leap, you haven’t been paying attention to the Ep$tein files, who it is run by, and for what purposes.
America is having an open-book final exam on morals, and we are failing miserably.
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Good old Bastiat. I should have remembered him. Thanks!
The Captain
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Thanks as always for the recap.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is certainly concerning. We should also consider the potential effects of longer-term bombing / droning of middle east energy infrastructure. The idea that everything will return to normal production as soon as the war ends is bonkers. I’m not suggesting you’re making that argument. I fear US warmongering is blinded by this misguided assumption.
True dat.
And girls’ schools. Did you mean to write - "The rest of it is inaccurate targeting?
It’s a bit premature to draw these conclusions. There’s been lots of reporting indicating that numerous discussions have already been had with the Kurds. With the pressure to keep US ground troops out, it seems self-evident that sending in the Kurds is an all but certain outcome.
It’s difficult to listen to them through all the noise of the US manufacturing consent for war.
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The economy is not the only thing that matters in this life.
The Captain
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Exactly.
I’d say food, housing, and healthcare matter more and since the economy has little to do with any of those, we should all be more optimistic.
Pete
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Yes, we are, but you can say that about any country.
I have been listening to NPR. The DoJ today gave up some pages on Trump.
It was very near a girl’s school. We screwed up badly. I think both of us doubt the girls were targeted.
The Persians are all over FB saying thank you to the US and Israel. You can listen if you want.
We have killed 600 or so in 10 days, the regime killed 40k in two days. You do not have to be kicking Trump more on this topic. But he is not nearly kicked enough in general.
Absolutely true. On the other hand, any pretense that this war was started to help the people of Iran is simply that - a pretense. This is the US taxpayer footing the cost of a war that, while it reciprocates for an old grudge, has been largely paid for (in a way) by gifts and campaign contributions to our leadership, his family and close associates by Iran’s enemies.
Israel:
Miriam Adelson contributed $100 million to Donald Trump’s campaign, making it the largest donation among recent disclosures. This amount was directed to her super PAC, Preserve America, in support of Trump’s candidacy.
Qatar:
Famously donated Air Force 1 which is being refitted at taxpayer expense and will, after Trump’s term, be donated to thee Trump Library by the US government.
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Since Trump was first elected in 2016, Qatar has spent nearly $250 million on at least 88 U.S. lobbying and public‑relations firms registered under FARA, more than almost any other foreign government in that period.
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Qatar sharply increased lobbying in Washington in 2017, after the Saudi‑UAE‑led blockade, spending around $16.3 million on lobbying that year alone to win favor with the Trump administration.
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These efforts included extensive meetings with U.S. officials: from 2021–mid‑2025, Qatari agents reported 627 in‑person meetings with U.S. political contacts, the highest count for any foreign country.
Ties to Trump officials, allies, and family business
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Several current senior Trump administration officials previously worked for Qatar: Attorney General Pam Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel, and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin all had lobbying or consulting roles on Qatar’s behalf before joining the administration.
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Jared Kushner’s family sought Qatari‑linked financing for the troubled 666 Fifth Avenue skyscraper; they negotiated with former Qatari prime minister Hamad bin Jassim (who managed Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund) in 2015–2016, including a meeting at Trump Tower during the transition, though that specific funding deal fell through.
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Later, a major real‑estate company tied to Qatar arranged a highly favorable rescue deal for 666 Fifth Avenue, leading analysts and watchdogs to question whether Qatari interests gained leverage over the Kushners and, indirectly, U.S. policy.
Questions about donations and benefits
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U.S. prosecutors examined whether people from Qatar or other Middle Eastern countries funneled money through intermediaries into Trump’s 2017 inaugural committee and a pro‑Trump super PAC; this focused on possible “straw donor” schemes rather than disclosed Qatari government checks.
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The Mueller investigation also asked witnesses about millions of dollars in donations to Trump’s inauguration that had connections to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia, again probing whether foreign funds were routed through U.S. individuals or entities.
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UAE:
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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has not disclosed direct personal donations to Donald Trump himself, but there is a clear pattern of large‑scale funding, investments and political projects closely intertwined with Trump’s family and inner circle.
High‑profile donations linked to Ivanka Trump
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In 2017, Saudi Arabia and the UAE pledged a combined US$100 million to the World Bank’s Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative, a fund publicly described as being inspired by Ivanka Trump’s women’s economic empowerment agenda.
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The pledge was announced while Trump, Ivanka, and Jared Kushner were visiting Saudi Arabia, raising concerns that foreign governments were using a multilateral fund tied to her signature issue to curry favor with the Trump family.
UAE investment in Trump family crypto venture
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In early 2025, an investment firm controlled by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE president’s brother and national security adviser, agreed to invest about US$500 million for roughly a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency startup founded by members of the Trump family and associates.
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Reporting indicates the deal was finalized just days before Trump’s 2025 inauguration and involved UAE sovereign‑wealth‑linked money, which ethics experts say creates serious conflict‑of‑interest and corruption concerns given Trump’s return to the presidency.
UAE‑linked donors and Trump inauguration
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Trump’s 2017 inaugural committee raised an unprecedented amount of money, and U.S. prosecutors later scrutinized whether foreign funds, including from the UAE, were routed through American intermediaries to evade bans on foreign political donations.
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A federal indictment and related reporting describe how allies such as George Nader, an adviser to the UAE leadership, helped channel money into Trump‑aligned political efforts, including a US$1 million donation to the inauguration via a payments‑company executive, prompting questions about the ultimate source of the funds.
Trump friends and operatives working for the UAE
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Elliott Broidy, a major Republican fundraiser and Trump ally, worked closely with George Nader to advance the UAE’s agenda inside the Trump White House, including pushing for a harder line against Qatar and advocating policy changes that aligned with Emirati and Saudi interests.
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Internal memos and emails show Broidy sought huge defense and security contracts from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while offering to leverage his access to Trump and senior officials; Nader, as Abu Dhabi’s adviser, was central to coordinating this effort.
UAE influence case involving Trump inaugural chair
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Thomas Barrack, Trump’s close friend and chair of the 2017 inaugural committee, was charged in 2021 with acting as an unregistered agent of the UAE by allegedly using his access to Trump to influence U.S. policy in ways that benefited Abu Dhabi.
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Prosecutors said Barrack promoted UAE positions in campaign speeches, media appearances, and internal policy discussions while seeking business with UAE sovereign wealth funds, though he later argued that any UAE investments in his firm were not a “quid pro quo.”
Overall picture
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The UAE’s ties to Trump’s family and friends center on large donations to an Ivanka‑linked World Bank fund, a massive equity stake in a Trump family crypto company, and lucrative relationships with key Trump allies like Broidy, Nader and Barrack.
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Ethics experts and watchdogs view these financial flows as classic influence‑buying: formally legal donations and investments that nonetheless create powerful incentives for Trump, his relatives, and close associates to favor Emirati interests in U.S. policy.
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Saudi Arabia:
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Saudi money has flowed to Trump‑linked projects mainly through high‑profile donations to an Ivanka‑branded initiative and large business deals with Trump family companies and associates.
Donations tied to Ivanka Trump
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In May 2017, during Trump’s first trip abroad, Saudi Arabia and the UAE pledged a combined 100 million dollars to the World Bank’s Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative, a fund publicly described as inspired by Ivanka Trump’s women’s economic‑empowerment work.
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The pledge was announced at an event in Riyadh with Ivanka present, prompting criticism that Saudi leaders were using a multilateral fund linked to her signature issue to gain influence with the Trump family, even though the fund is run by the World Bank, not by Ivanka personally.
Saudi sovereign fund and Jared Kushner (Affinity Partners)
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After leaving the White House, Jared Kushner created a private‑equity firm, Affinity Partners, in 2021; the largest investor is Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF).
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The PIF invested about 2 billion dollars into Affinity Partners roughly six months after Kushner left government, even though PIF’s internal advisers reportedly raised concerns about the fund’s inexperience and high fees before Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman overruled them.
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By 2021, Affinity reported around 2.5 billion dollars under management, meaning the Saudi stake represents the vast majority of its capital, which ethics experts say raises serious conflict‑of‑interest issues now that Trump is back in office.
Saudi‑backed LIV Golf and Trump properties
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Saudi Arabia’s PIF also finances LIV Golf, the breakaway professional golf league, which has staged at least six tournaments at Trump‑owned golf courses in the United States in recent years.
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Reporting notes that LIV has been “eager to pay” to use Trump resorts, providing a profitable revenue stream for the Trump Organization and deepening the financial relationship between the Trump family and the Saudi sovereign fund that bankrolls the league.
Trump‑branded real estate projects in Saudi Arabia
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Since Trump’s re‑election, Dar Global, a development company closely tied to Saudi government‑backed projects, has announced several large Trump‑branded developments in the kingdom.
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These include a roughly 7 billion dollar plan for a Trump‑branded hotel, 18‑hole golf course, and luxury “Trump Mansions” in Diriyah, as well as a separate 3 billion dollar mixed‑use Trump Plaza project in Jeddah, both part of major government‑owned developments.
Overall pattern
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Saudi Arabia’s financial ties to Trump‑world run through formally legal channels—multilateral‑fund donations aligned with Ivanka’s agenda, sovereign‑wealth investments in Kushner’s firm, tournament and branding deals with the Trump Organization—rather than direct personal cash gifts.
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Watchdogs and ethics experts argue that the scale and timing of these arrangements create powerful incentives for Trump, his family, and close associates to favor Saudi interests, even if no explicit quid‑pro‑quo is proven.
While money isn’t everything, it obviously, when it benefits a politician, it can buy a lot of sympathy and influence for reciprocally satisfying the desires of the donor.
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The flow of “information” to the current president seems to be followed more by personal relationships and his apparent addiction to limited media sources than by listening to whatever professionals are left in our intelligence apparatus.
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So, yes, while there are more important things in life than money, this is a board dedicated to the cause and effects of the flow of money and following that flow can help us attempt to predict the future.
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Jeff
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You don’t think that nukes in the hands of religious fanatics is a problem? For my part i’m glad for my tribe.
The Captain
PS: I didn’t read the rest.
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Sure I do. That’s why I worry about Netanyahu and Hegseth.
Anyway, why worry about it? I was assured just months ago that their entire program was “obliterated”. Nobody could recover from that, rebuild everything, and be “weeks away” from having a functioning weapon, could they?
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Word on the street is that the largest holder of nukes is now being led by religious fanatics. I agree with you, it’s probably not a good thing.
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A lot of things are true at once.
I am not all good. No one here is.
No one is nearly as bad as TFG. Sickeningly bad.
In some part, this is a war of liberation. The Persians are 65% not Muslim. What TFG’s intentions are, I would say, would be a pretense.
But what the American public wants is more than a pretense in this regard.
Also, that Jews or Israel control this is the same old lie. Plenty of other people have come to the table to create this. No one should be insulting them as powerless and adding to the lie Jews are in control of everything.
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The critique of Bibi is not different than the critique of TFG! Bibi does not represent all Jews. TFG does not represent all Americans. Their deeds are their own, they should both be criticized.
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