Direction of Crypto and How Soon

With all the craziness in the world right now - of course, when is it not crazy? - how long will it take for bitcoin to move at least 15% up or down and why? I think it will move up at least 15% over the next 4-6 weeks due to the following: 1) price is down about 35% since late last year, 2)I’m seeing stories of some heavy hitters buying bitcoin, 3)I believe inflation has peaked and the Fed is about to raise rates multiple times over the next few months to help that issue. Of course, this is just one Fool’s opinion and I don’t do this for a living…


Predicting the direction of prices for BTC is tough, as is predicting the direction of prices for all currencies, chiefly because the fundamentals aren’t determined just by what’s happening the US and the fact they trade 'round the clock.

There seems to be two schools of thought on the cryptos. One party says they are currencies and --in time-- will displace the fiats. Others say the cyptos will be short lived, because coming govt regs will destroy their anonymity and usefulness.

The cryptos aren’t a market I follow closely. But my impression is this. Like their PM counterparts, they trade inversely to the $US. So this becomes the research question. Why is our POS, backed-by-nothing-but-threats-of-violence dollar rallying? It should be falling like a stone, given that in '20 alone, the Fed/Treasury cartel printed trillions of them.

Yeah, the $US dollar is the least dirty shirt in the fiat currency laundry basket. But its role in international trade is being phased out by 2/3rds of the world’s economies. Heck, even staunch mid-east ally, Israel, is reducing its holding of $US dollars and replacing them with rubles and Yuan.

My suggestion? BTC isn’t an “investment”. It’s a “trade”, and it’s a trade that needs to be done in the context of what’s happening with at least the major pairs and the PMs, as plenty of articles at Zero Hedge lay out.




Take a look at this 4-month chart for BITO.

Draw trendlines to define the upper and lower boundaries of the slightly rising channel. 24.63 was Friday’s close. 31.50 would be where prices could be predicted to retrace to, or a 25%-30% gain, as you suggest. OTOH, was the Mar 28 high of 30 an anomaly, and we’re really seeing a descending wedge, and prices will break further to the downside?

Suggestion: use an OCO order and bracket the trade.


As of a minute ago, BITO and GBTC are up off of session lows by 5.5% and 5.9%, resp. That’s serious money, given they aren’t leveraged. Gonna hafta start tracking and trading 'em.

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