Predicting the direction of prices for BTC is tough, as is predicting the direction of prices for all currencies, chiefly because the fundamentals aren’t determined just by what’s happening in the US and the fact they trade 'round the clock.
There seems to be two schools of thought on the cryptos. One party says they are currencies and --in time-- will displace the fiats. Others say the cyptos will be short lived, because coming govt regs will destroy their anonymity and usefulness.
The cryptos aren’t a market I follow closely. But my impression is this. Like their PM counterparts, they (mostly) trade inversely to the $US. So this becomes the research question. Why is our POS, backed-by-nothing-but-threats-of-violence dollar rallying? It should be falling like a stone, given that in '20 alone, the Fed/Treasury cartel printed trillions of them.
Yeah, the $US dollar is the least dirty shirt in the fiat currency laundry basket. But its role in international trade is being phased out by 2/3rds of the world’s economies. Heck, even staunch mid-east ally, Israel, is reducing its holding of $US dollars and replacing them with rubles and Yuan.
I happened to check on the action of BITO and GBTC today. Near the close, BITO and GBTC were up 5.5% and 5.9% off the lows of the session. That’s serious money, given they aren’t leveraged. BTC isn’t an “investment”. It’s a “trade”, and it’s a trade that needs to be done in the context of what’s happening with at least the major pairs and the PMs, as plenty of articles at Zero Hedge lay out.
Arindam