Does 20% constitute a bear market?

Happened to look at a 12 month chart of the Dow 30. Peak at 36,327 on Nov 1, of 21 and a peak at 36,338 on Dec 27. 29,169 right now. Seems the “invisible hand” is trying to defend 29,000 as the index fell to 29,007, then recovered.


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It is an interesting question. I have never really understood why prognosticators fix on those definitions. If it is more news driven. If it is more hedge fund managers selling.

My own bigger purpose in this is to understand if in the total context we are going lower or higher in values.

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20% may “constitute” a bear market, but it does not constitute the bottom of a bear market (rather the “top” of it as the curve slices through the line).

According to WendyBG (and my examination of tea leaves and goat entrails), we are just verging on a recession which appears inevitable, coupled with the further aggravations of a war in Ukraine, derivative energy challenges, financial and supply train disruption, global inflation and China’s combined financial and COVID challenges. And that’s before we get some really bad news :slight_smile:

I’ve got a sneaky hunch that we have not seen the bottom of the equity market (or bond prices) yet.



At this point, the combination of wars and hurricanes will guarantee a recession. Economically speaking, the sabotage to the Nord pipelines is just destroying more supply when it was already going to be extremely tight and uncertain heading into winter so gas prices will go up worldwide for consumers and heavy industry. The hurricane destroyed tens of thousands of homes so all of the material and labor to rebuild doesn’t “solve” any housing problems, it just catches Florida up to where it was prior to the hurricane but by concentrating all of the rebuilding demand into a smaller window of time, it will inevitably drive certainly local rents and home prices up and will probably drive regional / national prices for raw materials up.

There really isn’t a single segment of the economy that has “planned for a rainy day.” Everyone has optimized for perfection and squeezed all the profits up to the top and no one else has any margin to absorb shocks and keep them from rippling immediately through the economy.




I forget what that is called in the futures market. Is it what I think it is? The derivatives market will drive the price nuts upward? Or is your comment discussing the reaction to the war?