Look demand side economics is the best of times. TPTB can not change that.
But what can go wrong in the equities markets?
Demand side econ the markets are more volatile to my eyeballs. The recessions are shallow but the market may swing widely.
Or we may face an 1890s style depression because of tariffs. Give it 1.5 years for a bottom in the markets.
If we get past the double top coming up in the equity markets then things will be different. I have my doubts about any bull market from here. It is a highwire high risk time to be invested.
Right if it was bearish it would be a death cross where the 50sma goes under the 200sma. But since the 50sma (red line) is going over the 200sma it is bullish golden cross. The same pattern is on the S&P500. It could fail so I am just watching to see while I am fully invested.
TA will never be the sameâŚFlipping a coin is only somewhat worse.
AI Overview
In technical analysis, a golden cross, which occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, is generally considered a bullish signal. However, it doesnât always result in a sustained upward price movement, and failures do occur. While success rates vary, studies suggest that a golden cross might fail around 30-40% of the time.
You said that TA was little better than a coin flip, so better than 50/50.
You have been calling for a recession since 2022. It looks like that will not happen again this year, so that is 4 years you have been wrong. To catch up with me you will have to get the next 5 years right. So you have a really steep hill to climb. Good Luck!!!
I said at 36k on the dow the market was too high for me to own it.
It is now 44k on the dow. Fill in whatever index you like. I wont own equities as these levels during this period of time.
I did not say a recession or a depression was coming in 2022. I was worried one might develop. I said during demand side periods recessions are shallow if they occur , but the market swings are wide.
I have gone from might develop to recession or depression will happen. I am not sure which will happen of those two yet.
I gave you the exact quote. You can search yourself. Just put in search Leap1 recession. It brings up all your past recession prognostications. But if you want to wipe out the previous prognostications and start over that is fine. So you are now calling for a recession next year?
You are misquoting me. Perhaps you do not remember the choice in 2022. Rates were rising to cut off inflation. I felt that could be done with a shallow recession at worst. That is not why I got out of the market.
This thread is from Nov. 2022
My first comment on the thread.
Last I knew everyone cared about inflation. Not sure why Musk wants inflation instead of a recession. Not sure why Musk would assume it will be much of a recession. So far this year the contractions in the economy have been minor. We have a huge demand in the US economy.
Yes we will have a recession, could have declared one this year almost, but a shallow recession. The current lay off headlines are in tech. The workforces are massive and these layoffs are good sized but not the soup of bankrupt companies.
Except I had been saying a shallow recession was possible in 2022 all along. You are implying hell freezing over.
In the first half of 2022, the U.S. economy experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Barronâs. Specifically, the first quarter saw a 1.6% annualized contraction, followed by a 0.6% contraction in the second quarter. While this met the common rule of thumb for a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) did not officially declare a recession, as they consider a broader range of economic indicators.
I guess my idea of a great depression is your idea of a recession.
We have a chance of seeing a great depression going forward.
If the market tops somewhere in here and fades away for over a year call that a great depression.
BY THE WAY, you are saying no recession in 2022. You are wrong. I had the pulse correct. But that was not why I exited the markets. I did not like the valuations.
What you want to do here is use a few more weasel words. That will give you better odds of defending a prediction.
Also, as you mature in your forecasting, continue to look for AI responses. They have trained several weasel statements into almost every single one of those responses. Even with the most direct questions, weasel words remain.
This is good if you actually care to think as contemplating many sides of an issue is the true path to enlightenment. Itâs super great if you are predic-o-matic on every response!
