Does $TSLA remind you of the Gartner Hype Cycle?

Gartner Hype Cycle


$TSLA five year chart

$TSLA could well be at or near the Trough of Disillusionment?

Tesla’s forward P/E is just 33!

Trailing P/E 55.73
Forward P/E 33.11

The Captain


One of Tesla’s problems is that the boss is no longer considered a genius, but is now first thought of as a lunatic. When the idiot savant is no longer valued as a savant, then all that people see is the idiot and wonder about their own sanity when trusting him with their money.



Do you expect Tesla sales to decrease?


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Telsa is a very important company.

That said Musk has ploughed the fortunes of the company into China. That is a huge mistake. He did so because of the battery production. Mostly.

The company is way over valued. It is a car company.

The FSD feature is meant to make it a tech company. Instead it is making it an insurance conglomerate.

As an insurance conglomerate would you put Musk up against Buffett? As a tech company would you put Musk up against Gates or Jobs?

Yes and no.

Tesla is going to have a longer drawn out trough.

The odds are about a decade from now Tesla is once again one of the largest market caps in the world. Similar to Microsoft’s reemergence. Musk wont be down that far or that far for ever.

Musk will work regardless of the market cap. He wont run away from this. Tesla has had more lower market cap years than high flying years.

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No, and if China ever gets their COVID act together it will greatly assist the company on many levels. That said, I think that the publication of Musk’s recent exploits at Twitter has spooked many stockholders who may feel more comfortable with someone a bit more stable fondling their money. That said, despite iit being underwater, I have continued to hold my Tesla shares (along wish equally underwater VW ones - based on their Chinese market share).



For Xi Covid is only a pretext. He does not have the resources for his economy.

Nope. Nor do I expect them to be able to grow into a P/E of 1396, which it was at one point. Or even probably the median of 335.

You might be able to do it when you’re in a high (customer) leverage business, where each additional customer costs you nothing (social media, tv station, software OS, game, etc.) When you have to produce a physical product that requires inventory, production of each unit, assembly, customer interaction, physical distribution, etc. there is virtually no chance of climbing on top of that P/E and riding it to glory.

At it’s lowest Tesla was at around 60. I’m not saying that you can’t make money riding the greater fool for a while, but if you’re thinking long term, as in “future cash flows” even a number that high is a tough putt. (Yeh, yeah, yeah, Amazon. Name another.)