Dreamer Port update

I haven’t posted here as much lately because I know many aren’t fans of China stocks, which is where I have been living for past month or two. But posted this on NPI and resharing here.

What I want to own:
What seems like years ago, but was only a couple months, I posted 4 stocks to beat them all over a many-year horizon: TTD, AYX, MDB, and ZS. Based on growth and relatively small market caps, I liked all 4 for their mgmt and markets too.

TTD had a great run and was up over 90% from where I reloaded during Feb 9th weak market day. I exited to protect those gains and because I honestly didn’t see, given their volatile pre/post-ER history, how they didn’t retrace a bit. So far my crystal ball has sucked there and they are holding steady. I am still content to wait, as there is bound to be 1 day, combined with a bad market day, to give it a healthy plunge, and then I am probably back in. If I have to wait until a week before Q2 ER, so be it. I project them to have a $120 stock price by end of 2019, but expected them to go sideways for a bit after such a huge runup, and wanted to put my funds elsewhere in the meantime.

MDB has earnings coming up, and my spidey sense says the market will pick apart any reason to knock it down a peg, at which point I jump in (provided the ER was actually good, imo).

AYX just had ER, and remains pricey. But it already has dipped. This is my likely next purchase.

ZS starting to trend downward, but first ER fast approaching and expect similar to MDB that the market will sell on the news. At least that is my hope. I like an entry of $20-21, which is still sorta pricey but not the crazy high P/S it has today.

Other Moves & Notes
I exited BIDU and JD for now. The market utterly hates JD…not sure why, but if next ER or two proves they are on right path, I can jump back in. BIDU was a tough one, but like Google, I wonder if the ad business is a bit at risk as more searches move to Amazon and their Chinese peers. Baidu has done a good job spinning off non-core pieces but their missteps with AI leaders coming and going, combined with fact that they were censured by govt previously and had to divest many bad business ideas tells me they the mgmt is perhaps more impulsive than needed at this time. The promise of autonomous vehicles for Baidu still exists, but there is a bit of a runway in front of that boom. I feel same on NVIDIA and likely I jump back in on both once self-driving vehicles seem on the cusp of being ready for mass production.

I exited MOMO after enjoying a 15% pop. The tea leaves seemed to say a pop was coming, and while I like the Tinder-esque purchase of TanTan, I don’t need this much exposure to China.

What I currently own:
BZUN - ecommerce/shopify-like service provider, with key partnerships with China’s titans.
IQ - they view themselves more akin to Disney than Netflix, and they are already making announcements into on-demand theatres and with online books, on top of growing their streaming video MAUs and paying subscribers rapidly. Combo of Netflix and YouTube and more sprinkled in.
NTNX - they are a 27 yr old slugging CF with speed that is entering his prime years and expected to take his game to the next level after cementing HCI and moving on to multiple cloud fronts in a SaaS-focused model for the IT Enterprise.
HUYA - haven’t said a ton on this one, and stock is priciest of my current holdings, but they announce soon (which is dangerous) but they also are capitalizing on huge new market of esports/gaming: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4175878-huya-twitch-china-b…
Huya just achieved $336 million revenue in 2017, a 174% growth YoY. No idea what growth they will show in next ER on June 5th, but willing to hold thru some post-ER-dip pain and perhaps buy more on dip too.



Apologies that I don’t have the fancy % breakdown for each stock that others have so graciously provided in their updates.

Reality is I don’t think monthly…maybe it is my work-life but I think Quarterly, and I have year-end personal goals for my portfolios. Currently I have passed my full-year 2018 goals in 5 months. That won’t happen every year, so hopefully I can pile on and add during the remaining 7 months.

(fwiw, my goal was 15-16% stock appreciation and then I have a separate goal for adding x amount of cash into ports for the year)

Since I add cash automatically to my 401k and randomly/often to my other two, I am too lazy to try and figure out the true % gains math on top of my full-time job. I could list the % changed in my balance thru a month, but it is skewed with the cash influxes. Plus I trade way too much, and am trying to cut down, but that is a lot more side math.

Net is that I had a very good May.

January was kind of a bust, as I foolishly was all in on TTD and missed out on a great month in the market for just about every other stock on the planet.
February was a solid TTD boost and I had diversified by their Feb 22nd ER.
March and April were mixed due to Trade FUD, Fed FUD, and the market being generally bipolar, but I was still up slightly.
May has been win after win after win.

May postive short-term trades: AAXN and MOMO were both post-ER pop winners that I flipped for gains. I tend to only do this on stocks I am ok with holding longer-term if the short-term reaction is negative, but I will also cut my losses if I like something much better out there. I also have the benefit of absorbing the ER results and conf call notes to see if I want to change my view to longer-term. Both of these stocks will probably go on to do well, but my highest convictions fell elsewhere.

May nothing-burgers:
TLRA (no expected bump from TTD’s success came)
NOC (I like mainly for Orbital ATK acquisition which still wasn’t complete)
DIS (too far in front of their 2019 streaming plans, and FUD around Fox purchase means more dips in future are likely - no rush here.)
BIDU - actually a nice gain for the year, but too much turmoil in AI ranks and self-driving cars are taking longer than I hoped, so in front of the next big ramp up. They spun out iQiyi (IQ) and I just doubled down on that instead.
JD - something is amiss, as their growth and infrastructure is impressive, but other higher conviction stocks out there and I am getting comfortable narrowing down my China stocks to a smaller number as I look to reinvest in TTD, AYX, and MDB, etc…

May postive longer-term plays:
TTD was a massive short squeeze post-ER winner, and while I am a huge long-term bull here, I took gains based on the stock’s history to be volatile and trend downwards over time after big pops like this. I will be back in by next ER most likely.
IQ has been the next biggest winner and currently my highest % of all 3 of my ports. It is up 40% in May alone for me. No plans to sell.
BZUN is 2nd largest position currently in 2 of my ports, and is up about 18% in May. No plans to sell.
NTNX is a stock I was in/out of before, and felt this recent ER was critical as I come across them daily in my real life career and anecdotally felt they were clicking on all cylinders, but wanted validation in the numbers, and they delivered. So I reentered after the ER. Up today and this is recent so up 1-2% for May. No plans to sell.
HUYA is similar to Twitch, an esports company Amazon wisely purchased a few years back, and they are growing 170% y/y and report first ER next week. May be primed for a post-ER dip given they are up 18% for me in May already and came in as the richest stock by P/S. I likely hold/add thru any post-ER dip, provided their ER shows the massive growth still intact.

My rough guesstimate of what I am up YTD, removing cash injections, is in the 30-35% range, which is great and I am happy with, but I know it should have been much higher if I had diversified better heading into 2018 and had benefited from the strong Jan market.



I did the same with TTD, but I reinvested in PVTL and AYX. My debate now is to pair down my port a little more (PYPL, NKTR, ANET) and buy more SQ or NTNX.

But I am patient.

Thanks for your posts, I appreciate them.