Electric Vehicle Sales Slowing. What next?

I’m a buyer of the Tesla Model Y at $35,000 and below.

intercst

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Coming with Tesla model 2 or whatever it will be called, to be made first at GigaAustin and later in Monterrey, Mexico.

The Captain

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Lowest Model Y Long Range I see today is $38,060 after the $7,500 tax credit. But, that only works if you owed a total of $7,500+ in tax, and have AGI under $150k.

Re: utilities. Musk has made major battery installation several times. We don’t hear much about them.

I think with new batteries rather than used auto batteries.

Battery storage is still one way to deal with intermittant power from wind and solar.

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You would hear if you followed the Tesla uTubers. I’m fairly sure they are new but not lithium ion, most likely LFP.

Most of the big installations (mega packs) are to replace peaker plants as far as I can tell.

The Captain

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Clearly an assault upon Tesla in the world’s largest EV marketspace.

to launch its family-friendly Firefly sub-brand in the market in 2025. This latest update follows nearly two years of speculation about the Firefly brand, in addition to a separate NIO sub-brand called Alps, both of which should join the EU markets.

Around that same time, NIO confirmed that a second, more affordable sub-brand was in the works to sell smaller EVs in China and Europe – its codename is “Alps,” and last we heard, was scheduled to launch in mid-2024.

NIO to bring cheaper EVs to China and EU.

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I’ve heard about them and yes, they are with new batteries. I’ve also heard lots of talk abut using “used” auto batteries but precious little news about it actually being done.

Certainly it’s possible, but I bet it’s not as easy as stacking a bunch of them up and turning it on. For one thing, the battery configurations are different for every vehicle. How viable they are is surely different for every one depending on age and condition. Those which ave been in an accident might be fully functional - or in danger of spontaneous combustion. Just balancing functionally “like” batteries is a fraught exercise, I can imagine what it might be like for this sort of thing.

So while I have hope for it, I suspect the reason we haven’t heard that much about it is that it’s not as feasible as we would like to believe. I hope I’m wrong, but I so rarely am.

(That’s a joke, son.) :wink:

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You can be one of the early investors…

Many electric vehicle (EV) batteries can be reused before recycling. RePurpose Energy is focused on reusing EV batteries to create reliable, low-cost “second-life” energy storage systems. In doing so, we maximize the value of these batteries, strengthen the resilience and sustainability of battery supply chains, and support the global transition to renewable energy.

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I don’t know what the service life of an EV battery is. I would suspect maybe 8 years.

Part of the problem could be lack of availability. As more cars are on the road and early EVs age, numbers available should improve.

That’s also a problem with recycling ingredients. Most they have now probably are damaged in accidents. That gives them time to work out the details and fine tune.

Another opportunity to keep an eye on.

Thanks for the input, Captain. Maybe reminds us that media seem so absorbed with EV news from Tesla, info on other initiatives tends to get buried in the fine print or omitted. We need to keep an eye out for progress on those other ventures too.

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I already did my Roth conversion so the $150k AGI limit is a bust for 2023. Tesla’s website now warns that in 2024 the tax credits on the Model Y will likely be reduced because of the foreign content restrictions, so I’ll need a big price cut to get below $35,000.

intercst

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As of today, the model Y is retaining the full $7,500 tax credit in 2024. The model 3 is losing some/all of it.

From Tesla website -

$7,500 Federal Tax Credit

Customers who take delivery of a qualified new Tesla and meet all federal requirements are eligible for a tax credit up to $7,500. Tax credit will end for Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive and Model 3 Long Range on Dec 31, 2023 based on current view of new IRA guidance. Take delivery by Dec 31 for full tax credit. Only for eligible cash or loan purchases.

Adjusted Gross Income Limitations

  • $300,000 for married couples filing jointly
  • $225,000 for heads of households
  • $150,000 for all other filers
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Thank you for that.

I didn’t realize that Tesla is now making the low-end, rear wheel drive model. I thought the $38,000 price you quoted was for the long range, dual motor. But that’s good news that I can have another crack at buying a Model Y at a good price in 2024.

intercst

It is long range and dual motor! All I did is click on Y, then click on Inventory, then sort low-to-high-price and pick the first applicable one.

https://www.tesla.com/my/order/7SAY224_b1455f672582134a97d2d83e7530742f?postal=30338&range=200&region=GA&titleStatus=new&redirect=no#overview

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Wow thats really cheap I thought they were much more than that, like 55-60k. Wa slooking at rav4 plug in version and its about 48k so the Y is way cheaper. Wow.

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The plans for the German and Italian battery facilities – that would have spurred on the localisation of the European battery supply chain – have been paused as ACC weighs up shifting to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, rather than the previously planned lithium-ion battery cells and modules. While LFP batteries are less powerful, they are cheaper to produce. The move to pause construction comes as the industry is seeing a dip in expected demand.

DB2

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Sooo, the cheaper batteries would reduce range, in the face of consumer resistance due to range concerns? Doesn’t sound like a winning strategy to me.

Steve

What kind of batteries do hybrids use? Demand for those should be increasing sharply.

“Hybrid car batteries come in several types…Nickel-Metal Hydride (NiMH) batteries, Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries, and Lead-Acid batteries. NiMH batteries are the most commonly used hybrid car batteries.”

DB2

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