How do we know he is in a cult? Because, no matter the evidence, he continues to believe.
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And he got ardent support from all sides.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
The Captain
James Carville explained it succinctly 30 years ago: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Every single person was affected by inflation. It did not matter that it happened in every country, or that it is back under control, or that wages have grown to accommodate (not perfectly, but overall): people remember the soaring cost of eggs and hamburger, or whatever their food-du-jour is, and they didn’t like it.
I find the reason for the loss exceptionally easy to divine (and yes, there are other culture war issues that contributed), what I do NOT understand is how the pollsters got it so wrong AGAIN.
A margin of this size should not be so invisible as to be missed by virtually every pollster in nearly every poll. I know they missed in 2020, and missed bigly in 2016. You would think they’d had enough experience to figure this out, even if there’s a candidate who (for some reason) manages to hide some support below the surface.
As someone who lived most of my life based on polls (ratings), I’m mystified. I’ve spent time analyzing, dissecting, and talking with the people who run them. This shouldn’t happen, at least not to this extent and over such a huge base of respondents.
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Maybe they were playing it safe?
At any rate, Nate Silver wrote about the ‘herding’ effect where all the results cluster together. This effect is also seen in analysts’ earning estimates.
Statistically, given the stated margins of error the poll results should show more variance – but they don’t. This points toward the poll results being tidied up.
Herding Behavior among Financial Analysts: a literature review
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419978_Herding_Behavior_among_Financial_Analysts_a_literature_review
DB2
Are you willing to accept a conspiracy theory, that it was political propaganda disguised as polling?
The Captain
“A margin of this size should not be so invisible as to be missed by virtually every pollster in nearly every poll.”
In Heather Cox Richardson’s latest post:
November 11, 2024 - by Heather Cox Richardson
“All this jockeying comes amid the fact that while Trump is claiming a mandate from his election, in fact the vote was anything but a landslide. While votes are still being counted, Trump seems to have won by fewer than two percentage points in a cycle where incumbents across the globe lost. This appears to be the smallest popular vote margin for a winning candidate since Richard Nixon won in 1968.”
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One by one they will go
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We have had a federal Department/Office of education since the 1800s. The only thing that changed in the late 70s was the fact that it was elevated from an Office of Education to a Department (Cabinet level) of Education.
On an unrelated topic, any response to my query on your ownership of DXYZ and/or what you think is a fair price for it?
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I don’t know about DXYZ. I know that SpaceX is undervalued ($210 Billion).
Valuing SpaceX is that money loses its meaning.
Bezos: I would love to see a trillion humans living in the Solar System. If we had a trillion humans, we would have, at any given time, 1,000 Mozarts and 1,000 Einsteins. The only way to get to that vision is with giant space stations. The planetary surfaces are just way too small.
A trillion souls for a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins is a pretty good deal, all things considered.
SpaceX is the only one that is positioned to make this vision a reality. Starship, a Rapidly Reusable Rocket is far ahead of anything else.
If you have a long term horizon, SpaceX is a no brainer. It is like NVDA 10 years ago.
Here is one crude metric for Starlink
500m subscribers * $100 profit * 40 PE = $2T market cap
This does not include the profits from NASA, Defense contracts or carrying payloads into orbit.
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Crude is not the adjective I would use. Silly seems to fit better.
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Instead of hurling insults, feel free to present your own analysis.
It will be more helpful to others.
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Yet you defend it having a P/E 220?
Dude, Starlink barely has 4 million subscribers. You think it is going to grow by roughly 50 million a year?
I am a believer in SpaceX (it is the reason why I purchased DXYZ in the first place) but I am no where near as confident as you are that they will grow that fast in the next ten years, if ever.
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Using Grok:
The next generation of high bandwidth Starlink satellites, referred to as Starlink Gen2 or Starlink V2, involves significant upgrades to increase both the capacity and performance of the satellite internet service. Here are some key points about these satellites:
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Capacity Increase: Elon Musk has stated that the next generation Starlink satellites will allow for a 10X increase in bandwidth. This claim was made in relation to the plans SpaceX has for launching larger satellites that can only be deployed using the Starship due to their size and capacity.
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Orbital Changes: SpaceX has sought approval from the FCC to lower the orbits of these satellites to below 300 miles (482 kilometers) above Earth’s surface, which aims to reduce latency and improve service speed.
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Technology Upgrades: The V2 satellites include more powerful phased array antennas, introduce E-band for backhaul, and have capabilities for direct-to-cellular service. They are larger and heavier than the previous generation, with the “V2 Mini” satellites already in use and providing about 3-4 times more capacity per satellite than the previous iterations.
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Launch Vehicle: The full version of Starlink V2 satellites are planned to be launched using SpaceX’s Starship, indicating a significant increase in satellite size as the Starship has much more payload capacity than the Falcon 9, which was used for earlier generations.
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Direct-to-Cell Service: One of the innovations with the V2 satellites is the ability to provide cellular service directly to smartphones, starting with text messaging and expanding to voice and data services. This service, in partnership with T-Mobile, aims to provide coverage in areas where traditional cell service is unavailable.
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Capacity and Connectivity: Each launch of these second-generation satellites adds approximately 2.2 Tbps of capacity to the Starlink constellation, enhancing coverage and connectivity globally.
These advancements are part of SpaceX’s strategy to extend high-speed internet access globally, with an emphasis on reducing latency, increasing bandwidth, and providing connectivity in the most remote or underserved areas. The exact timeline for the full deployment of these capabilities, especially those requiring the Starship for launch, depends on the operational readiness of the Starship. However, SpaceX continues to evolve its satellite designs and operational strategies to enhance Starlink’s service.
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It’s not just a question of growth rates. There’s the question of total market size.
There’s “only” 8 billion people on earth. Median household income (globally) is about $12K (international PPP dollars). Only about 16% of that population are “upper-middle” or higher (more than $7K per person per year). So there’s probably no more than 1-1.5 billion subscribers who could ever afford Starlink, or any similarly priced service.
To get to 500 million subscribers, Starlink would not only need to displace somewhere close to half of all “expensive” internet providers, but it will have already captured nearly half of all people on earth that can afford its product. How then could it possibly be growing fast enough to support a P/E of 40?
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Using Grok didn’t defend your position at all. None of that speaks to growth, market, moat, or profitability.
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That is not a vision, it is fantasy. There is no scenario by which it will be better for humans to live in space than on earth. Not now, not soon, not ever. If you didn’t have the radiation shield provided by the compliant earth core you would be lucky to live half as long as on the planet. And that’s not to mention the little issues of food, oxygen, and other niceties like water and gravity.
I’m all for exploring space and learning as much as we can about how the universe came to be, but the realities are that the distances are too great, the environments too hostile, and the resources too limited. We are like a fly in a terrarium, looking out, but never being allowed past the cork.
SpaceX has done a fantastic job improving on the base that NASA built, but no matter what it will be unable to change the realities of the cosmos.
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There are 8 Billion cell phones operational in the world. The populations globally is upwardly mobile.
My prediction of 500 million subscribers and $100/year profit is bear case. I expect the bull case in 10 years:
1 Billion subscribers * $250 profit * 40 PE = $10 T market cap
Amazon Kuiper plans to get into this soon but is far behind. It is projecting 400m subscribers.
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So, when are Teslas going to start coming with Starlink built in?
There’s nothing wrong with being silly. A lot of people make a decent living being silly. It just seems like you’re pulling numbers out of thin air. Jim Cramer, is this you?
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I would say that instead of buying DXYZ, it is better to buy directly using a broker.
Many of you think you are too smart and don’t pay financial services fees but you do. These ETFs are not necessary and fees are exorbitant.
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