Musk v Igor and Divi is perfectly hedged

Today in Dealbook conference Elon Musk said If you don’t want to advertise, don’t, don’t blackmail me with ad, or money. Then “Go figure yourself” Hi Bob!

So whoever comes out in this Divi owns them, i mean he owns both TSLA and DIS.

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I am a lot more invested in tsla than I am in Disney
but more importantly a Musk fan.
The genius of Musk is not well appreciated.


I watched it. First time ever of me watching him, understanding now why he so often gets himself into trouble, why he gives his kid such a name, why he wants to fly to Mars, why he is a visionary, a dreamer …

Because while watching I so often had the impression “He mentally is a kid. He is not grown up”.


The foundational stuff that he is doing to setup a civilization on Mars will help humanity cross the great filter (fermi paradox).
This will help consciousness 1000 or 1,000,000 million years from now by becoming inter galactic.

esoteric stuff.


There are only two possible explanations, both of which seem equally likely to me.

  1. He is mentally handicapped and incapable of hiding his emotion, even as it seriously damages the prospects of one of his businesses.

  2. He is purposefully trying to damage X, hoping that the banks which loaned billions for the purpose will happily sell the debt at pennies on the dollar back to him, and he will move his actual out-of-pocket purchase price from $44b to something like $30b, perhaps even lower if other ‘investors’ also give up. Then he owns everything, and at last goes back to digging holes under cities or shooting rockets to the moon. Only then might X possibly recover.


He answers this very clearly in this interview

“Offer me money, offer me power. I don’t care !
I will say what I want to say when I want to say it.”


I don’t think I share any of his views but I guess he has the right to say what he wants to say. In the name of Political correctness we are suppressing honest views. The PC movement has gone bonkers. There are holycow’s everywhere and you need to tiptoe around them all the time. Somewhere along the line the self is dyeing slowly.


Oh I know what he says. At some point, when what he says has turned out to be so untrue so often, so repeatedly, and so obviously, you have to question it, that’s all.

It isn’t just the repeated missed deadlines, that’s forgivable certainly. It’s the “I’m a free speech absolutist” except his behavior shows the opposite. His conspiratorial nonsense just pushes it over the edge. I’m happy for him that he’s successful, I just wouldn’t want to be involved with anyone so personally toxic.


Elon has plenty of enemies.

He is busy disrupting big oil, transportation, space and media simultaneously.

“What I see all over the place is people who care about looking good while doing evil. F* that" Elon Musk has said.


I listened to the whole Sorkin interview. I think he is very clear and level headed. He believes in a fair merit based system. He gives access to his patents to competitors for free. He only wants to win if he provides the best solution. So far he has. He sees people for who they really are. Most are self centered bullsh…rs. He call them out.

He runs several successful fortune 500 companies.

He is concerned about everything. He is concerned that if we are 100% reliant on earth to survive, that we are being short sighted. That is why he focusses on Mars. He understands that the odds are long, but in his view it is something that must be considered. He doesn’t like the word post, but abhors twit for messages on X. He allows anyone to provide a better clarification than post and he will adopt it. He is not so defensive about his contributions that he won’t listen to others with better ways of doing something.

If there is a better EV he wants you to buy it. How can you not like this view if you are a capitalist?

Sorkin was so busy trying to get clarifying statements on many political hotbeds that he at time would not allow Musk to truly share his vision on things.

Musk did not hide on any topics. Who else do you know that has those balls.

I was impressed.

Go ahead and attack me now, I know you will!


I think is a pipedream. Why should we try to turn Mars into a place habitable for humans instead of concentrating on keeping this beautiful and nurturing planet healthy?


Gator, appreciating your posts since years I want to clarify a misunderstanding: “mentally is a kid” was not meant as a value judgement (or only little so) but as an explanation. He mentally is like a kid, fascinated by his toys (Didn’t we all want to become an Astronaut, were reading SciFi, building our own telescope?). A kid in a world of “grown up’s”. Not well adjusted to deal with those, like an Alien fallen to earth — and that for me simply is the explaination for him

a) getting himself regularly into trouble and
b) to think different and do things differently

P.S.: >>Who else do you know that has those balls.<< Charles Munger.
Seems to be completely frank you either have to have the naivety of a child or you have to be REALLY grown-up.


Good point regarding Charlie Munger.


I also think it’s a pipe dream, but there are good reasons behind it:

  1. There are 8 billion of us here now and a large portion won’t or can’t concentrate on keeping this planet healthy. Not to mention that it may already be “too late”.
  2. If you believe in growth of species that succeed (assuming h0m0 sapiens does indeed succeed), then more and more space is needed as time goes by. I mean long periods of time like hundreds of thousands or even millions of years, not short periods like centuries or millennia.
  3. Maybe our species has a heavy curiosity component which drives us to explore/invent/search/etc.

And Mars is just a first step, a tiny step. After that, we need to find ways to allow many generations of a species to traverse vast distances of space to search even further. Even to places where it may take 100 or 1000 generations to reach.


It’s not an either/or. Musk can, and is, doing both.


Mars is just a first step, a tiny step. After that, we need to find ways to allow many generations of a species to traverse vast distances of space to search even further.<<


Having been for most of my life an avid SciFi reader (as Elon surely is) I fully understand the “survival of the human race” argument: Spread in space and therefore minimize the probability of us becoming extinct. In younger years I didn’t even think about that. It was the most natural thing for me (as it surely is for Elon). Glorious!

But now, older, my “heretic” thinking is: Why should our survival as a species be important?

Is it possible that with all of us consciously or subconsciously being aware of our mortality, of the unbearable thought of death being unavoidable for us as Individuum, that in face of this “survival of the species” is a psychologically needed substitute for our individual survival? That it’s nothing more than a crutch for our Ego who can’t stand that it will end? Like religions and other crutches who promise a sort of Immortality?


What is the purpose of life? IF, a big if, accumulate learnings and pass it to next generation… We have perfected that, we can pass it through our DNA, so in some ways, I exist and I will continue to exist. If I am going to exist, is it not natural to find new places to thrive, new experiences to gain?

Because that is how nature created species. A species does its best to survive and thrive. Some do survive, but the vast VAST majority don’t and either disappear or change into something different. So far, the evidence is that all species disappear or change into something different, and there is no reason to think that h0m0 sapiens in any different in that regard.

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

Elon pushes relentless innovation and focus on execution to reduce cost.
See Starship below.

SpaceX delivered 80% of the total payload to orbit. China delivered 12% and everyone else did 8%.


Goofy regarding Elon Musk lying:

Oh I know what he says. At some point, when what he says has turned out to be so untrue so often, so repeatedly, and so obviously, you have to question it, that’s all.

Do you think he is lying about the millions of Tesla cars on the roads? About the ~50%/year growth rate in production of Tesla cars? Do you think he has somehow co-opted most of the auto journalists and they are reporting false numbers about the performance of the Cybertruck? Do you suppose he is delivering fake cybertrucks to fake customers? Do you think he has somehow convinced the media to run the same rocket launch over and over and that the whole SpaceX thing is a long con?

If I had a company making billions of dollars a year that no longer needed to use public offerings to raise cash because it was making money, I would say what I wanted when I wanted to. If it drives the stock price down, then it is a buying opportunity for people who aren’t idiots, but it doesn’t hurt Tesla anymore because over at Tesla it is raining cash flow!

Some things are worth more than $40 billion dollars. Do I think Twitter is/was one of them? No. Did Musk? Apparently yes but its certainly clear enough he might have thought $30 billion but got carried away. Do I think Musk losing $40 of his $200 plus billions is because he is some kind of mental defective? Lord I pray for the defect that got him the $200 and left him with $160 billion!

Maybe because I have hung out with creative tech types for a long time, but Musk is just not that hard to understand. And if that’s crazy, I’ll take three!