Elon Musk ‘Made a Bet for the Ages’

Obviously you never found out why SpaceX operates as it does. The traditional way is to be extra careful, to check everything ten times before launch. It sure reduces mishaps but at what expense? Time! What SpaceX is doing is saving time at the expense of more mishaps. Bezos’ Blue Origin operates the old way. Who is further ahead, Blue Origin or SpaceX?

The Captain

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Well, and other things. Airlines had to re-route and postpone a whole raft of flights because of detritus flying through the atmosphere after the explosion, so that’s time and money - for other people. What’s that saying: incentivize the profits but socialize the losses?

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Granted, but does that justify “braindead Muskies?”

The Captain

Didn’t Max Planck say something like society advances one piece of debris at a time?

:face_with_peeking_eye:
ralph

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It is not unfortunate for GM.

It will be unfortunately for Tesla.

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Not understanding and not agreeing with the way SpaceX does business are two very different things. I’m well aware of their regulations and impacts be damned approach to doing business. I find it reprehensible.

See what I mean?

I’m open to other descriptors for people who fail to acknowledge Musk’s clear character defects and defend / promote him at all cost.
Feel free to share your ideas.

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“Science advances one funeral at a time.”

Onwards and upwards to a $1+ Trillion valuation

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More like 50 million funerals.

Thomas Midgley Jr. - Wikipedia.

The guy who invented tetraethyllead and freon probably killed at least 50 million people worldwide – and it’s not like he didn’t know leaded gasoline was poisonous.

intercst

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It’s not that I disagree that scientific advancements don’t cost lives. Boom! The atomic bomb is a testament to this fact.

I believe Planck’s quote refers to the scientific cliques that hinder progress.

intercst

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I keep dreaming about a Space Vacuum Cleaner {SVC). Maybe a rocket dragging a huge parachute. With no air resistance it could be Gargantuan.

The Captain

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This is dumb and irrational.

We have 20 Billion cars on earth. 30k satellites on a larger circumference and it is multiple orbits.

In 2023 it was estimated that there were 1.474 billion cars in the world. I suppose 2024 was a gang busters year for sales. Let me guess, they were all Teslas!

You shouldn’t start a post with “This is dumb and irrational”, then follow it up with dumbness and irrationality.

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Also, they don’t travel at 10000 to 25000 km per hour, so the collision impact is… not quite comparable.

A 1 kg object impacting at 10 km/s, for example, is probably capable of catastrophically breaking up a 1,000 kg spacecraft if it strikes a high-density element in the spacecraft. In such a breakup, numerous fragments larger than 1 kg would be created.

(not to mention that the majority of those cars are parked somewhere at any given point in time…)

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Probability of collision is miniscule.
That won’t stop people from raising dumb and stupid points.

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Nice word, did you Google it? You should try Googling other stuff too.

The Kessler Syndrome is such an obvious consequence of putting more and more satellites into space that it’s shocking anyone would question it. It’s borderline common sense.

I Googled something for you. It’s easy, give it a try!

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I don’t think you know what “miniscule” means.

Examples of satellite collisions
  • Iridium-33 and Kosmos-2251

In 2009, a Russian military satellite and an American communications satellite collided, destroying both. This collision created a large amount of space debris.

  • Cerise and Ariane rocket debris

In 1996, a French military reconnaissance satellite collided with debris from an Ariane rocket.

  • Fengyun FY-1C and BLITS

In 2013, debris from the Fengyun FY-1C satellite collided with the Russian BLITS nano-satellite.

Consequences of satellite collisions

  • Space junk

Collisions create space debris that can threaten other satellites and Earth.

  • Domino effect

Collisions can cause a domino effect, creating more debris and increasing the risk of more collisions. This is known as the “Kessler Syndrome”.

There are others, but those will do as examples of “not miniscule”. And those are in high earth orbits with relatively small numbers. Put thousands of them in LEOs and watch the pieces fly.

And they don’t have to be “1 kg”. A piece as small as a grain of sand traveling at 20,000 mph packs as much wallop as a high speed bullet, which is plenty to spoil your day - or your satellite’s day.

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The debris on earth is at best being blown with the velocity of the wind. Space junk is traveling at 17,000 miles per hour. It only takes a tiny piece to bring down a satellite.

If you have a bunch of satellites traveling in the same orbit, safely separated, it only take one small piece of junk traveling in the opposite direction (with a 34,000 mph closing rate) to take them out.

When you’re traveling at those kinds of speeds, low Earth orbit isn’t a very large space.

intercst

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Wiki tells us that there have been six ‘Unintentional high-speed collisions between active satellites and orbital debris’. Google AI suggests that 20K satellites have been launched into earth orbit.

6/20000 = 0.0003

Multiple by two and you get a 0.0006 probability. Minuscule? You make the call.

DB2