I know everyone is more interested in SWKS than SEDG, but open your mind and at least read the SEDG review, just to encourage me to write more of them.
Saul
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Saul,
I really enjoyed your review of SEDG! Thanks for sharing. I remember the first time the stock was presented on these boards. It sounded very interesting of an investment. I definitely would like a way to invest into solar without diving into Solar City which to me even today seems quite expensive on a Price to Sales basis.
My biggest concern is with the competitive advantage or lack there of. This is why I have stayed out as of today. The growth looks amazing though it appears to me somewhat similar to AMBA without the advantage of a technology lead. Maybe I am ignorant to their technology lead. If so I am happy to be proven wrong! 
I am not near as quick to bail on a stock as you are so I like to have a solid competitive advantage over their competitors. Aside from that concern it sounds quite appealing at today’s price. Maybe I can dive into the annual report for a bit today if I can find the time.
Best,
Soth
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Actually, I thought your write up was a great bear case and surprised that you bought more on the way down or stayed in to begin with.
Solar has historically been the playground for the foolish, the speculators, the manipulators…rarely if ever for the investor.
You already stated it quite well…technology changes rapidly, oil prices are in the dumps, Israel is hardly in a peaceful region.
I remember well the myriad of solar companies in early 2000 that would rule the alternative space and their narrative was helped by nosebleed oil prices…not the narrative situation now but if oil does climb back one day…perhaps solar would be of interest again.
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I was just rereading my post and wanted to correct something. I hope my “quick to bail” comment didn’t sound too negative. In my mind I meant it to be a complement, but after rereading it sounded like more of a negative. I just meant your a lot more skilled at me of recognizing potential short falls and getting out before the rest of the market. Something admittedly I probably need to practice a bit more.
Anyway good luck with your SEDG investment!
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Thanks for posting on SEDG. I’m greatly interested in them. With those growth numbers, how can you not be?
The price today is quite attractive as well!
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Saul I read most of the posts on this board. I read all of yours without fail.
I am somewhat of a techie, but I really don’t know much about solar. The things I would add are that that when we hear talk of government incentives coming to and end, first,we don’t know that they won’t be renewed, and second, the implication is that solar is controlled by the US market. It may be dominated by the US, but it is a very international game and growing almost everywhere at different rates.
There’s a reason this company is headquartered in Israel, that country is further ahead (by percentage) in solar deployment than most if not all other countries.
With the Mexican plant in operation, SEDG will have manufacturing capacity on three continents. Asia is a question mark. Solar is currently widely used in China for thermal heating (primarily of water). Electrical capacity will expand with the green house gas reduction initiatives, but how much of a market opportunity for SEDG remains to be seen. China has a way of discouraging foreign tech companies while promoting domestic ones whenever there is an option. Some technologies are beyond Chinese capability (at this time), so they are forced to import, but DC inverters/optimisers is probably not one of these advanced technologies. The Chinese might not make them as well SEDG, but that probably won’t be enough to open the market for SEDG.
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Saul, your detailed posts are great keep writing them. On this board I feel like I/others can play devil’s advocate or truly disagree without starting a fight or a flame war. We are fairly civilized and encourage challenges to our positions, it makes us each stronger.
I do think SEDG is the technology leader in their field and is likely to hold onto that, but it may be like being the tallest midget in the room. (Sorry PC police, send your mail to PC@Fool.com).
Long term Solar will be a huge player, there will be quantum but slow leaps to it in third world countries that have no infrastructure (like skipping landlines in the jump to cell phones in Africa). But short term there will still be lots of bumps, especially as 12/31/16 approaches.
With that in mind I have a small position and consider it speculative. The nice thing is that it does not seem to be at a peak of speculation and has recently put in a double bottom (with Aug 24 low) that will make some people happy. If this is the real deal it will end up having years of earnings growth with plenty of opportunities to add as it becomes less speculative.
On the previous thread I answered the question about why their product is best for their customers.
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Thanks everyone for the useful discussions and great ideas, both pro and con, about these three companies.
Saul
I know everyone is more interested in SWKS than SEDG, but open your mind and at least read the SEDG review, just to encourage me to write more of them.
SEDG looks good right now. Margins are increasing and may increase further. For a while. There is and there will be continued pressure to reduce solar cost, and the components that SEDG makes will continue to drop in price. Right now SEDG has some big ways to cut costs…automation, lower labor in Mexico, economies of scale, technology improvement. Of these cost reduction factors, only technology improvement (and to some degree economies of scale) can be expected to contribute meaningfully to further cost reduction (as a percentage of cost). When will we see diminishing returns on the cost reduction while little or no decrease in the rate of price reduction? In a year? In two years? I think it will happen so investors should be careful not to assume that cost reduction will keep pace with price reduction in 2-3 years from now.
Chris
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Keep writing reviews. While the price action has scared people away, it is getting to that investor sentiment point where everyone gets discouraged and I don’t think there are many people left who want to sell.
The business performance is there, it’s just early stage. It’s not like we are picking from the bottom of the trash heap here. Yes there is risk, but this one has a lot of potential for huge growth ahead.