EU/NATO/Russia/US war risk rises

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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The following development poses an inherent risk of escalating animosity between Russia and NATO via the European Union nation-state of Lithuania:

VILNIUS (Reuters) -Lithuanian authorities said a ban on the transit through their territory to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad of goods that are subject to EU sanctions was to take effect from Saturday.

News of the ban came on Friday, through a video posted by the region’s governor Anton Alikhanov.

The EU sanctions list notably includes coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology, and Alikhanov said the ban would cover around 50% of the items that Kaliningrad imports.

https://news.yahoo.com/lithuania-says-sanctions-goods-kalini…

Given Vladimir Putin’s evident state of mind in the wake of EU sanctions and three decades of NATO expansion, one might wonder what is the likely answer to the following question:

If Russia was willing to risk World War 3 (with the EU/NATO & the US) to create a “land bridge” between Russia and its discontinuous territory of Crimea, might it not be willing to take a similar risk to create a land bridge between Mother Russia and its similarly discontinuous territory of Kaliningrad?

The following map and military activity adjacent to EU/NATO member state Lithuania, mirrors Russia’s preparatory activities leading up to the Ukraine invasion and the recent war crimes:

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/belarus-warning-upd…

It seems to me that the so-called “Suwalki Gap” is a 40-mile-wide region of Lithuania that Russia might covet almost as much as it desired the Donbas region of Ukraine.

The Suwalki Gap, also known as the Suwalki corridor… is a sparsely populated area immediately southwest of the border between Lithuania and Poland. Named after the Polish town of Suwalki, this choke point became of great strategic and military importance since Poland and the Baltic states joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwa%C5%82ki_Gap
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas

The Suwalki Gap: The 40-Mile Line NATO is Ready to Go to War with Russia Over

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/suwalki-gap-40-mile-l…

Every schoolboy who ever took a course in Western Civilization is likely to have been assigned an essay on how “entangling alliances” led directly to World War I.

https://www.123helpme.com/essay/The-Alliance-System-Led-to-W…

Sometimes history repeats itself and sometimes it merely rhymes. In any event, it does not take a genius IQ to figure out that alliances, tensions, and rivalries between and among nation-states in the world today are eerily reminiscent of the situation leading up to World War I.

With modern technology and weapons as terrifying as the chemical warfare of WWI, it seems that global leaders should seek to avoid risking any kind of military conflict, preferring instead negotiation and diplomacy. The United States may be “protected” east and west by oceans and north and south by friendly neighbors, but the US is at risk of being forced to fight a “two-front global war” with Russia and China because of its Asian and Pacific entanglements with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

I certainly hope and pray that my concerns are overblown. However, it would be foolish for us to ignore the likely impact that global tensions could impose on our investments.

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If you gave the American public the choice between abandoning Ukraine (for the hope of lower gas and food prices) versus continuing the war, what would they chose?

I bet they’d “cut & run” for 25 cents off a gallon of gas.

intercst

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Another article on the Suwalki Gap:https://www.politico.eu/article/suwalki-gap-russia-war-nato-…
THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH

In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the ‘Suwalki Gap’ would likely be the first point of contact

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“If you gave the American public the choice between abandoning Ukraine (for the hope of lower gas and food prices) versus continuing the war, what would they chose?”

Our weak resolve and internal bickering are a strategic weakness.

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Another article on the Suwalki Gap:https://www.politico.eu/article/suwalki-gap-russia-war-nato-…
THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH

America taught the Soviet Union how to do an airlift in Berlin. Have the Russians learned nothing? Why risk WWIII when they can airlift?

The Captain

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Another Picture

https://ca.images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=suwalki+g…

Anymouse

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America taught the Soviet Union how to do an airlift in Berlin. Have the Russians learned nothing? Why risk WWIII when they can airlift?

The Captain

Airlifting Troops makes for juicy targets for fighters and AA missiles.

https://ca.images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=AwrE1x…

https://ca.images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=AwrE1x…

The German paratroopers never really recovered from their “successful” invasion of Create and never again launched a large airborne assault. Hitler was horrified at the losses of so many of his best trained troops.

https://ca.images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=AwrJ7K…

Tim

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The German paratroopers never really recovered from their “successful” invasion of Create and never again launched a large airborne assault. Hitler was horrified at the losses of so many of his best trained troops.

The Russians did a replay of that in Ukraine. The Russians captured Hostomel Airport with their elite airborne troops, but the infamous 40 mile convoy failed to link up. Did not end well for them.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/destination-disaster-r…

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With modern technology and weapons as terrifying as the chemical warfare of WWI, it seems that global leaders should seek to avoid risking any kind of military conflict, preferring instead negotiation and diplomacy

Um, if we’ve learned anything in the past 20 years it’s that you do not negotiate with Putin. You give him what he wants or else.

He is very much like other world leaders, past and present, in that way. And if we’ve learned anything else from that, well, stopping them early is better because stopping them later isn’t always possible.

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Most of the worlds “wealthy countries” - are sort of not solvent.

Unrest and equality amounts their peoples - is rising.

Culture and family decay has been the norm.

Economic and cultural fears - are there both real and perceived.

Sometimes, ‘war’ is a nice distraction - and if it’s mass war - a nice impetus to reset pesky things like Bills of Rights.

Is this it? No.

Is it being planned ? Absolutely.

I’m thankful I’m past the halfway point of life.

I’m sorry I had kids.

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“With modern technology and weapons as terrifying as the chemical warfare of WWI, it seems that global leaders should seek to avoid risking any kind of military conflict, preferring instead negotiation and diplomacy”

Tell me how well that’s worked with North Korea now developing and producing tons of nukes and missiles to send them USA-ward.

Or Iran and their nuke program.

Or Hamas…and Palestinians and the Gaza strip…

or even Cuba…

Half of Africa has ‘militant’ groups creating havoc from Nigeria to Libya…

t.

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America taught the Soviet Union how to do an airlift in Berlin. Have the Russians learned nothing? Why risk WWIII when they can airlift?

Why airlift when you can just ship? There’s a good port in both St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, both on the Baltic Sea. The comparison to post-WWII Berlin is not very good.

I see two reasons to want a land connection from Kaliningrad through Belarus to Russia. Rail shipping might be cheaper than ocean shipping. (And it might not, I don’t really know.) And to actually provoke WWIII.

The latter seems more likely to me. Putin is no longer a sane man. So who knows what he might choose to do.

If the issue were simply supplying Kaliningrad, shipping through the Baltic Sea would be a relatively easy and non-provocative way to get around the blockade of Russian goods through Lithuania. But making a provocative choice demonstrates to me that provocation is what Putin is really after.

–Peter

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I certainly hope and pray that my concerns are overblown.

The idea of this happening is not at all overblown. I think Russia well could open up more fronts.

This would be good for the rest of us. Ukraine would benefit directly. NATO would have reason in the theater to eliminate all of Russia’s military operations. This would happen rapidly. Ukraine would face a Kremlin reeling to exit all war. Putin would face his physical demise much sooner at the Russian military’s hands.

If Putin uses a nuke we will reach him immediately to eliminate the threat of a second usage.

We all have a price to pay here. This is a choice of standing up to violence and destroying the threat or backing down and becoming very abused till we are eliminated.

Being for peace is not a straight line just because you are for peace.

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I bet they’d “cut & run” for 25 cents off a gallon of gas.

That is an insult to most Americans. It is not true.

Most of us know our history.

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In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the ‘Suwalki Gap’ would likely be the first point of contact

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Lithuania is not afraid of Putin’s threats and Poland will immediately support Lithuania to the nth degree in any conflict in the ‘Suwalki Gap’. The Russians are afraid of provoking a conflict with Lithuania and Poland with NATO backup while fighting with the Ukrainians.

Cooperation between Eastern European nations is better than ever before.

They all know that you can not negotiate with madman Putin.

Jaak

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If you gave the American public the choice between abandoning Ukraine (for the hope of lower gas and food prices) versus continuing the war, what would they chose?

I bet they’d “cut & run” for 25 cents off a gallon of gas.

What about the European public? Their opinion counts more because it’s their war. Maybe they would let Russia have half of Ukraine and declare “peace in our time”, and get their cheaper gas and gasoline.

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Why risk WWIII when they can airlift?

Maybe they cant? Maybe a corrupt general sold most of the important parts in their transport planes on the black market?

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What about the European public? Their opinion counts more because it’s their war. Maybe they would let Russia have half of Ukraine and declare “peace in our time”, and get their cheaper gas and gasoline.

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They would never let Putin have anything. They know you can not negotiate with madman Putin.

Jaak

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<<What about the European public? Their opinion counts more because it’s their war. Maybe they would let Russia have half of Ukraine and declare “peace in our time”, and get their cheaper gas and gasoline.>>

They would never let Putin have anything. They know you can not negotiate with madman Putin.

Maybe. But it’s kind of odd that the USA is sending $40B of stuff over to Ukraine instead of Germany and France sending it, no?

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Maybe. But it’s kind of odd that the USA is sending $40B of stuff over to Ukraine instead of Germany and France sending it, no?

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How do you know what Germany and France have sent to the Ukraine? Maybe they have sent more than $40 billion. Germany and France are less than 1/2 of the US in population. You should be comparing EU contributions to Ukraine to US contributions.

Jaak

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