European gas problems

Russia will reduce gas supply to Europe through Ukraine

From CNN’s Uliana Pavlova

Russian energy giant Gazprom said it will reduce natural gas supply to Europe as of next Monday by pinching flow to a pipeline that runs through Ukraine.

On its official telegram account, the state-owned company said gas meant for Moldova is being held in Ukraine so it will reduce supply to the Sudzha pipeline to account for the difference.

“The volume of gas supplied by Gazprom to the GIS Sudzha for transit to Moldova through the territory of Ukraine exceeds the physical volume transmitted at the border of Ukraine with Moldova,” it said.

“While maintaining the transit imbalance through Ukraine for Moldovan consumers, on November 28, from 10:00, Gazprom will begin reducing gas supply to the Sudzha GIS for transit through Ukraine in the amount of the daily under delivery," the company added.

A wider trend: Europe has raced to replenish its stocks this year ahead of winter as Russia dramatically cut its flows of pipeline gas, including halting all shipments through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in September.

But a bigger challenge could emerge in the spring when Europe tries to refill its stores with a much-reduced supply of Russian pipeline gas. Flows to Europe are just 20% of their pre-war levels, according to research firm Wood Mackenzie.




I dug deep on this one and found that the Western Cartel and Russia are staring each other down. There is chaos in the Russian military, in the Russian economy, the Russians have to export the gas. The EU makes finished goods. By definition the EU has the upper hand. In dealing with Russia the EU wont submit. My own opinion if you go long NG this spike in prices will disappear as fast as it is happening.

BTW if you read the article Iran must work with Russia on this field in the future. That is a tell that the Russians are not fully committed to cutting off the EU because Iran has a reassurance from Russia in all likelihood.

The threat of sharply rising gas prices and supply failures increases as Europe heads into winter without the reassurance of abundant cheap gas from Russia. Such gas supplies may halt completely if the European Union (EU) gives the final approval to a cap on gas prices from Russia at its meeting on 24 November. Russia’s state-owned gas behemoth, Gazprom, has stated that if the EU introduces this gas price cap, it will suspend all exports of its gas to EU countries. Gas imports from Russia made up around 40 percent of the EU’s gas supply in 2021. Cognisant of multiple opportunities to exploit this situation in favour of itself and its key ally, Russia, Iran last week made it clear that it is ramping up its gas production operations at the supergiant South Pars natural gas field, with a focus on its controversial Phase 11. According to the chief executive officer of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), Mohsen Khojastehmehr, last week: “The activities of the South Pars phase 11 development project are underway, and this winter gas from phase 11 will be available.” This comment echoed the recent statement of Iran’s Oil Minister, Javad Owji: “With the initiative of our colleagues in the National Iranian Oil Company, we promise that the first phase of gas production from South Pars Phase 11 development project, which was exchanged only on paper between different domestic and foreign contractors for 20 years, will start this winter.” Owji had said in August that South Pars Phase 11 is expected to produce 10 to 11 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) in the first phase of development.


Putin has clearly overplayed his hand.