Automotive is cyclical within a year and over many years, currently in a multi year cyclical decline per Tony Seba. I don’t have the graph, sorry.
Long story short, the above and this being a build year for Tesla, I believe the share price is likely range bound for at least a year. I’m buying on the dips (this is not investment advise).
Jason, I believe EV adoption is increasing, but I exited Tesla in January because I am not seeing an efficient response to the BYD threat, other than price drops. And if BYD build its factory in Mexico, tariffs may not be able to be applied. That would be an existential risk for US manufacturers in general.
Not sure what is really true, but Rivian just made a mess of their last earnings. I had really hoped they would be my consistent EV company compared to Tesla’s all over the map company.
But, when Rivian CEO blamed interest rates for slowdown, taking no responsibility I had to bail. That is not the answer I wanted, I was willing to accept slowdowns but to have management kinda just throw their hands up was too much.
I’ve read she also said that the overlap between BYD and Tesla is ‘only 14%.
None of this should be believed, I don’t put much stock in what she says. but, I do believe there will be more than one winner (and as of today, Apple shut down their 10years of trying - not likely any incumbents stand a chance).
Just an anecdotal observation . . . I’m in China at present. Me, my wife and her nephew took a short trip to Dali, a tourist town in Yunnan Province. My wife’s nephew did a lot of research so he’s sort of our tour guide. We’ve been getting around via Didi (Chinese Uber). Today we took a long ride in a BEV BYD (in case you weren’t aware, BYD is an acronym for Build Your Dreams). I must say it was a very nice car, smooth, comfortable ride, large screen dashboard and interesting innovations like the interior door knobs were unlike any I’ve ever seen, they sort of rotate to open the door, pretty cool I thought. If this company enters the US market, I’m sure they will be a formidable competitor.