Ford EV Sales Increase

Ford’s latest sales release show a 126% increase in sales of EV’s for its latest quarter. This information was on this morning’s CNBC Squawk on the Street.

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That is good news but i think expected. The electric pick up sold so well they stopped taking orders. They must be ramping up production.

I think theres an ev Mustang. Haven’t heard much. Doing well? Any others?

Filling distribution channels, dealer show rooms and lots may take a while. And first to buy are the early adopters. Critical time is how sales do when those new model channels slow.

3rd qtr data:

Relevant snip:

Perhaps, more importantly, the all-electric Mustang Mach-E continues to see high demand despite being on the market for almost three years. Ford sold 2,324 Mach-Es in September, a 47% increase from last year, bringing the total to 28,089 in 2022.

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Ford (and others) typically obscure the details. Overall 2022 Ford EV sales:

Lightning: 15,617 (on sale since May)
E-Transit Van: 6,500
Mach-E: 39,458 (up 45% from 2021)

Ford would have you think they’re doing great. After all, they tout being #2 in the US EV market… but they somehow don’t point out that they are so far behind that #1 can’t even see Ford in the rear view mirror.

But I would highlight the fact that those sales numbers show an excruciatingly slow ramp-up, doing an average 1000/week at each of the two assembly plants where Lightning and Mach-E are built. Slower, apparently, at the van plant.

Parts shortages? Assembly issues? Poor Ford motivation?

Whatever, I’m pretty sure Ford could sell more vans and more Lightnings based on the publicized waiting list for one and the big EV van market for the other. Mach-E?.. hard to say. Maybe the demand isn’t there… maybe it’s part shortages. Regardless, it seems Ford’s ramp up is not a strong sign of future EV growth… but maybe they’ll find a solution soon.

In related news, TOTAL F-Series truck sales for 2022 (including Lightning) are down 10%. So, fewer high profit IC sales… partly helped along with unprofitable Lightning sales as one cannibalizes the other.

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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This.

From the above link:

The Ford F-150 Lightning turns in just eight days, while the Mach-E turns in 10 days.

Ford mentions retail orders for 2023 models are up 244% over 2022 models so far, signaling the company has the buyers. Yet, like many automakers, the key to meeting this demand will be ensuring supply.


And:

Recall they stopped taking EV orders for both the Mach-E and the Lightening (the later for all of 2022). Probably was a good thing in light of all the supply chain issues.

The turn time is certainly a strong indicator of demand.

The “retail orders for 2023” part is misleading. YOU’RE not misleading, the reports from Ford… and other… automakers about orders being up X% are meaningless IMO. (I spent over 30 years in the auto biz and continue to follow closely). Early orders always look great. Doesn’t translate into the overall year typically.

And even if there were mountains of parts next to each legacy automaker factory, it is not possible for any automaker to boost production by huge amounts like the 244% in Ford’s example. Why? Because there are limits on production capability even running around the clock.

Yep. Supply chain is involved. But it is impossible for outsiders such as us to know how that affects production of any one particular model unless the automaker provides the info.

It would be interesting to hear this sort of conversation: “We’ll be getting delivery of 5000 (insert part common to each vehicle)… do we use them to make 5000 EVs that lose money? Or use them to make 5000 trucks that make us $10000 profit on each one?”

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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“However, with 41,236 electric vehicle sales year to date and lingering supply chain issues, how will Ford hit a 600,000 run rate by the end of next year?”

DB2

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You can expect production rates to ramp up with experience. But even if they now make 40,000/month with 8 months to go, 600k looks impossible. Additional capacity has to come on line soon.

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Solid negative feedback experience on the Mustang Mach E. Dealers have already been ripping people off. Ford Mustang Mach E Needs a Rethink | Tesla Motors Club

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“6 months later, trading it in for a MYLR.”

What’s a MYLR?

DB2

Tesla Model Y Long Range

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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