Das Elektroauto säuft ab
The electric car is running out of fuel
Sales of electric cars continue to fall well short of the expectations set by politicians and are now even falling noticeably. According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority, 31,384 electric vehicles were newly registered in Germany in March, 28.9% fewer than in the same month last year. However, the different number of working days must be taken into account, which is why a look at the first quarter probably provides the better result. This shows a year-on-year decline of 14.1% from January to March. The share of electric cars in the total number of new registrations shrank to 11.9%.
Germany’s transport minister is threatening to ban driving on weekends to meet climate goals if the ruling coalition does not pass reforms to the Climate Protection Act by July…
A reduction in traffic to help meet the climate goals would only be possible through measures that are difficult to communicate to the public, such as “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays,” Wissing added…
“This claim is simply wrong,” Green parliamentary group leader Julia Verlinden told the German Press Agency, referring to Wissing’s threat of a weekend driving ban. She added that Wissing should not aggravate people unnecessarily because there are other ways to tackle climate issues, such as a speed limit.
This would be anathema to many Germans. They are very proud of their autobahns. And the main reason EVs are being vilified, and becoming less popular in Germany is because the German auto industry (profit-wise almost entirely ICE) is a VERY strong lobbyist, one of the strongest in the country.
@MarkR Those are garbage stats. It is past the Christmas season car buying period. The first quarter is slower for EVs. EVs are special. Cars in general are less special and lower priced.
Christmas car gifts are special.
The 1Q does not determine the year.
This is like saying on the 14th hole I got a bogey. On the 15th hole I have no clue but I better pack it in and head to the clubhouse. @DrBob2 lives for data like that.
No, they’re real. Germany discontinued its EV subsidy program at the end of December. Without the free money fewer people are interested in EVs. Makes sense.
True. Of course, the second quarter isn’t shaping up so well for EVs in Germany.
In May 2024, new cars with a hybrid drive accounted for 30.2% (-0.3%), including 14,038 plug-in hybrids (+1.7%/5.9%). 12.6% of new registrations were electric cars (BEV). At 29,708 new vehicles, this type of drive was down -30.6% from the result for the same month last year.
I suspect Germany suddenly ending all EV incentives in December 2023 probably has something to do with this. Plus the fact that Germany has been in a recession (or very near one) since q3 2023.
Spain had a similar experience a decade and a half ago with solar. They got on the Green Bandwagon and subsidised solar hasta los tequeteques (Spanish for up the wazoo). Once the economy tanked they cut the subsidies and bankrupted the solar industry. Too much of a good thing is not so good.
Indeed. Not that the cost of the vehicles changed, just who was paying.
The change in sales has been getting the attention of the car makers. As noted in another thread, VW has committed to spending $60 billion in R&D to keep their combustion cars competitive.
Just last year, Volkswagen estimated that electric cars would account for 80 per cent of annual sales in Europe by the end of the decade. The rather lukewarm reception of its own ID models is now prompting the Wolfsburg-based company to adjust its strategy. Of the €180 billion set aside in 2023, primarily for next-generation electric cars, VW will now divert a third to the development of [combustion engines](internal combustion engines News and Reviews | Motor1.com). This announcement comes from Arno Antlitz, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of the Volkswagen Group. The company is therefore planning to spend a good €60 billion to “keep our combustion cars competitive”. VW reverses stance on combustion engines: Billions are now being invested
Note that VW is still planning to spend twice as much on EV development. If $60B is good news for ICEs then $120B must be an exorcism of excitement for EVs. I suspect though that if the reception to the ID models was more like that of the Model 3 and then the Model Y, VW would be all in on EVs. The problem may be less the market and more the product.
In any case, this seemingly conflicting strategy indicates to me that VW is very much aware of the “Innovator’s Dilemma” and is desperately hedging its bets.
For those who might not know, the Innovator’s Dilemma describes the predicament faced by large companies having to deal with disruptive technology. These companies have a large customer base who like the existing tech and just want it improved incrementally. These companies will tend to cater to their customers, for good short/mid-term reasons. Meanwhile young upstarts are developing the disruptive tech and staying alive with sales to the early adopter crowd. Eventually the disruptive tech develops to a point where it becomes attractive to the customers of the traditional companies but by then it is too late for the old guys to catch up.