Das Elektroauto säuft ab
The electric car is running out of fuel
Sales of electric cars continue to fall well short of the expectations set by politicians and are now even falling noticeably. According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority, 31,384 electric vehicles were newly registered in Germany in March, 28.9% fewer than in the same month last year. However, the different number of working days must be taken into account, which is why a look at the first quarter probably provides the better result. This shows a year-on-year decline of 14.1% from January to March. The share of electric cars in the total number of new registrations shrank to 11.9%.
Germany’s transport minister is threatening to ban driving on weekends to meet climate goals if the ruling coalition does not pass reforms to the Climate Protection Act by July…
A reduction in traffic to help meet the climate goals would only be possible through measures that are difficult to communicate to the public, such as “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays,” Wissing added…
“This claim is simply wrong,” Green parliamentary group leader Julia Verlinden told the German Press Agency, referring to Wissing’s threat of a weekend driving ban. She added that Wissing should not aggravate people unnecessarily because there are other ways to tackle climate issues, such as a speed limit.
This would be anathema to many Germans. They are very proud of their autobahns. And the main reason EVs are being vilified, and becoming less popular in Germany is because the German auto industry (profit-wise almost entirely ICE) is a VERY strong lobbyist, one of the strongest in the country.
@MarkR Those are garbage stats. It is past the Christmas season car buying period. The first quarter is slower for EVs. EVs are special. Cars in general are less special and lower priced.
Christmas car gifts are special.
The 1Q does not determine the year.
This is like saying on the 14th hole I got a bogey. On the 15th hole I have no clue but I better pack it in and head to the clubhouse. @DrBob2 lives for data like that.
No, they’re real. Germany discontinued its EV subsidy program at the end of December. Without the free money fewer people are interested in EVs. Makes sense.
True. Of course, the second quarter isn’t shaping up so well for EVs in Germany.
In May 2024, new cars with a hybrid drive accounted for 30.2% (-0.3%), including 14,038 plug-in hybrids (+1.7%/5.9%). 12.6% of new registrations were electric cars (BEV). At 29,708 new vehicles, this type of drive was down -30.6% from the result for the same month last year.
I suspect Germany suddenly ending all EV incentives in December 2023 probably has something to do with this. Plus the fact that Germany has been in a recession (or very near one) since q3 2023.
Spain had a similar experience a decade and a half ago with solar. They got on the Green Bandwagon and subsidised solar hasta los tequeteques (Spanish for up the wazoo). Once the economy tanked they cut the subsidies and bankrupted the solar industry. Too much of a good thing is not so good.
Indeed. Not that the cost of the vehicles changed, just who was paying.
The change in sales has been getting the attention of the car makers. As noted in another thread, VW has committed to spending $60 billion in R&D to keep their combustion cars competitive.
Just last year, Volkswagen estimated that electric cars would account for 80 per cent of annual sales in Europe by the end of the decade. The rather lukewarm reception of its own ID models is now prompting the Wolfsburg-based company to adjust its strategy. Of the €180 billion set aside in 2023, primarily for next-generation electric cars, VW will now divert a third to the development of [combustion engines](internal combustion engines News and Reviews | Motor1.com). This announcement comes from Arno Antlitz, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of the Volkswagen Group. The company is therefore planning to spend a good €60 billion to “keep our combustion cars competitive”. VW reverses stance on combustion engines: Billions are now being invested
Note that VW is still planning to spend twice as much on EV development. If $60B is good news for ICEs then $120B must be an exorcism of excitement for EVs. I suspect though that if the reception to the ID models was more like that of the Model 3 and then the Model Y, VW would be all in on EVs. The problem may be less the market and more the product.
In any case, this seemingly conflicting strategy indicates to me that VW is very much aware of the “Innovator’s Dilemma” and is desperately hedging its bets.
For those who might not know, the Innovator’s Dilemma describes the predicament faced by large companies having to deal with disruptive technology. These companies have a large customer base who like the existing tech and just want it improved incrementally. These companies will tend to cater to their customers, for good short/mid-term reasons. Meanwhile young upstarts are developing the disruptive tech and staying alive with sales to the early adopter crowd. Eventually the disruptive tech develops to a point where it becomes attractive to the customers of the traditional companies but by then it is too late for the old guys to catch up.
Meanwhile global EV sales are still on the rise. Why? Because most of the rest of the world have access to Chinese EVs that are competitive in price to ICEs.
The only things holding back the rapid adoption of BEVs in the US and Europe are the inability of legacy automakers to make a profitable mass-market priced BEV and tariffs on Chinese BEVs that are affordable.
Seems to me like the first non-Chinese company to market and mass-produce a $25K (USD) BEV with performance comparable to a Corolla in Europe and the US will sell a lot of cars.
To recap, it is nonsensical to suggest that the general public in the US and Europe would rather have ICEs over BEVs when the sticker price differential between the two is so large. In every instance that I know of where the price of BEVs and comparable ICEs are equal (either at the high luxury level or due to subsidies), BEVs do very well.
A USA example of this is the continuing rise in used BEV sales, led by Tesla, as used BEV prices become similar to comparable used ICEs.
I find this a bit surprising since BEV technology improves every year.
It’s always been about cost. EV’s are extremely similar to ICE cars, and perform almost entirely the same functions in entirely the same ways. So other than “personal virtue” (to borrow a Darth Vader phrase), the primary factor that will shift conversion in the new car market from ICE to EV’s (or vice versa, as is happening in Germany at the moment) is cost.
EV’s are cheaper to manufacture in China for many of the same reasons most things are easier to manufacture in China. A combination of economies of scale and massive government participation in promoting manufacturing sectors makes it difficult for goods manufactured in other countries to compete on price.
Bt, your link says that overseas sales from China of EVs (combined hybrids and BEVs) were only 8%. Meanwhile, in August total car sales in China fell for the fifth straight month.
The upward trend appears to be continuing in 2024, with much of the sales growth occurring outside the major markets:
Electric car sales remained strong in the first quarter of 2024, surpassing those of the same period in 2023 by around 25% to reach more than 3 million. This growth rate was similar to the increase observed for the same period in 2023 compared to 2022. The majority of the additional sales came from China, which sold about half a million more electric cars than over the same period in 2023. In relative terms, the most substantial growth was observed outside of the major EV markets, where sales increased by over 50%, suggesting that the transition to electromobility is picking up in an increasing number of countries worldwide.Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA
Germany appears to be an outlier in the EU.
In Germany, the sales share for electric cars fell from 30% in 2022 to 25% in 2023. This had an impact on the overall electric car sales share in the region. In the rest of Europe, however, electric car sales and their sales share increased. Around 25% of all cars sold in France and the United Kingdom were electric, 30% in the Netherlands, and 60% in Sweden. In Norway, sales shares increased slightly despite the overall market contracting, and its sales share remains the highest in Europe, at almost 95%.
Worth keeping in mind that this global auto electrification is occurring despite the considerable foot-dragging of the western legacy car companies and before the mass production of a profitable Corolla-level BEV. The declines in battery prices indicate that a profitable (without subsidies) $25K (USD) BEV with 230+ mile range and 15 minute charge time is only a year or two away.
I think at that point the proverbial fat lady sings.
Germany previously had very generous subsidies for EV purchases, and has now all-but-ended them (some are still phasing out, but all the significant ones ended last year). So demand for EV’s has cratered in Germany, more than anywhere else. Which, again, is consistent with what we’ve been discussing on this thread - the price for EV’s not made in China is still high enough that significant government intervention is necessary for them to move beyond early-adopters.
That said, European EV sales growth has flattened even without Germany. YTD total EV sales (BEV’s and PHEV’s) only grew by about 3% ex-Germany, and EV marketshare fell by a tenth of a percent ex-Germany. About 21.5% of new car sales for all EV’s ex-Germany (about 14% BEV). So even with most European countries maintaining their existing supports, it’s not currently moving EV adoption forward. Even the countries you mention aren’t growing their EV marketshare appreciably - collectively, EV share grew from 30.9% to 31.2% YTD in France, Netherlands, and UK combined.
