Pew has found that “interest in EVs has declined. In the current survey, 29% of Americans say they are very or somewhat likely to consider an electric vehicle the next time they purchase a car. Last year, 38% expressed this level of interest in an EV purchase…the share of Democrats who say they are very or somewhat likely to consider an EV for their next car purchase has declined from 56% to 45% in the last year.”
DB2
Musk has burned a lot of people
In revenge they will burn petrol… 
The Captain
The question is why? If it is because Americans like the loud noise and gas fumes of internal combustion then EVs are in trouble. If it is because of high sales price and insufficient charging stations then it is a temporary blip that will go away in a couple of years.
The fact that American politicians and auto CEOs are so deathly afraid of Chinese BEVs strongly suggests that the primary reason is high sticker price.
2024 and perhaps 2025 were long seen as probably difficult years for BEVs in America if interest rates remained high and the economy uncertain. IIRC, the OEMS were mostly promising low cost BEV models in 2026 on the assumption that they would be able to develop profitable BEV platforms by 2025. Mass producing an unprofitable model was never going to fly. That’s why the Chevy Bolt was never going to seriously compete with the Model 3 despite coming out first. GM couldn’t afford it.
Low cost (<35K without subsidies) but still profitable BEVs with acceptable (250+ mile) range were not going to happen until battery technology reached a certain efficiency, and that has only occurred in the last year. We are still a 1-2 years away before Tesla can mass produce cheaper cars made from these to the American market.
What China and Norway are demonstrating is that people will preferably buy BEVs if at price parity with ICEs. What Germany is demonstrating by removing EV incentives is that people will not pay a huge premium for BEVs. So what the world is waiting for is for technology to advance to the point where sticker price parity is reached (in the <$35K car market) without the need for incentives.
I suspect this will likely happen in 2025-2026, with BEV costs continuing to decline going forward.
I think a large reason for all this uneven-ness in the BEV market are the distortions caused by incentives that change all the time.
For a while they will burn more gasoline.
They are waiting for Tesla’s competition to get better.
In one of my sister’s cases they bought a Hyundai. Anything but Musk. He has too big a mouth.
But are the prices higher or lower than last year? I thought that EV prices were lower now, and yet interest has declined.
DB2
I’m curious - do you have any links on this battery tech breakthrough?
Not the specific answer to your question but Tesla started using LFP chemistry which is cheaper than nickel based batteries and can be recharged to 100% without degradation. Also, battery prices have declined along Wright’s Law.
https://www.ark-invest.com/wrights-law/
The Captain
Has it? One can get quarterly blips, but according to Forbes, EVs are going to do well over the year.
Recent news reports have advertised a decline in sales to herald the end of the EV revolution, but the actual numbers couldn’t be further from those vibes-based headlines in the world’s three biggest auto markets. This year EV sales in China, the world’s biggest auto market, are projected to hit 10 million vehicles, roughly 45% of all car sales in that country. In the United States, the world’s second largest auto market, EV sales are forecast to rise 20% compared to 2023, hitting roughly 11% of all new car sales. And in Europe, the world’s third largest auto market, EV sales could rise 10%, composing 25% of total sales. The Vibes Lie: Electric Vehicles Accelerate Toward 50% Of Global Sales
The rate of sales increase may have slowed, but it doesn’t look like sales are declining in any systematic way. As I’ve said, I think incentives have distorted the market, perhaps creating a premature boom in BEV sales followed by a trough, but the overall trend doesn’t appear to be changing.
Sure. At the beginning of 2024, CATL and BYD had dueling reports about a 50% reduction in EV battery costs by the end of the year.
Meanwhile CATL and Tesla are in partnership to produce CATL’s newest battery in the US, with one apparent objective to produce the $25K car/robotaxi. CATL Could Be Tesla's Secret Weapon For Its $25,000 EV
There is a good possibility that this CATL battery will have substantially longer range and faster recharge times. Tesla EVs could get a massive range boost from this impressive new battery tech | TechRadar
BYD, CATL Chinese competitor is touting similar battery performance with rumors of an introduction by the end of the year. BYD to introduce new second-generation 1000km battery technology - Drive
If either BYD or CATL come through, then in the next year we will have batteries that can perform at least as well as what has been advertised for solid state batteries with price points well below the cost of batteries at the beginning of the year.
Assuming a year or two to get these into mass-produced BEVs and it is easy to see rapidly accelerating US BEV sales by 2026 even without the Chinese competition. In the meantime, the likes of WalMart and BP are building out a national network of EV chargers.
Given major battery improvement, the price of used EVs will fluctuate a lot, depending upon expected remaining life of the rest of the EV. If a long-run battery can be retrofitted into existing EVs, it may be reasonable to keep a (relatively) new EV and just replace the battery when it finally dies.
That is correct. Sales growth is lower than projected, but EV sales are growing, and at a much faster pace than ICE sales growth. So… if this is a sign that EV demand is going down, then it’s also a sign that ICE demand is going down even faster.
Yes, quite noticeably. As noted in the linked Pew survey – “Declining share of Americans say they are likely to consider buying an electric vehicle”
2022 42%
2023 38%
2024 29%
That is obviously enough to support the approximately 15% EV sales percentage last year, but the two trends are going to collide somewhere in between.
DB2
This is all like the burn up all the fossil fuel guys saying ICE cars are way down in price but EVs costs have gone up 110% and sales have slumped with Tesla readying to declare bankruptcy.
Facts never apply when they have half the news.
This is not a practical idea, IMO. No EV maker is going to want to spend engineering time to develop and support this, rather than make new EV models. And batteries pretty much last the life of the cars now…very few people have had to replace EV batteries and if they do have to it is typically within the 8 or 10 year warranty.
I doubt anyone on the fence for buying a new BEV is thinking about getting a model that will have easier battery replace many years in the future. More likely if they are worried (caused by FUD) of needing to replace a battery they will just be happy buying a new ICE.
Mike
Another survey on EV buying intentions.
In its latest Mobility Consumer Index (MCI), consulting firm EY found that only 34% of US consumers plan to purchase an electrified vehicle (meaning fully electric, plug-in hybrid, or hybrid) as their next car. That’s down from 48% in EY’s 2023 survey.
Looking specifically at fully electric vehicles, the number drops to a paltry 11% from 22% a year ago…
Another possible reason: While maintenance costs are lower for EVs, those vehicles have a “much higher magnitude” of costs, said a general manager of a Southern California dealership. That’s especially true when it comes to body or structural repairs.
DB2
Dealerships don’t not sell Teslas. Maybe GMs?
The Captain
If true, this is bad news to the US auto industry who will be tempted to continue to chase short-term profits at the cost of long-term viability.
Americans looking to buy a $30K SUV today are not looking at BEVs. There are too few that are too expensive. They will be in a couple of years as the BEV price tag continues its sharp decline.
Several states have filed suit to overturn what they see as a Federal EV mandate. Some time ago, I read that Ford filed a brief in support of the government, to rescue their investment that would be stranded if the push for EVs went away.
Where is there an SUV for only $30k? The ATP in the US, at last report, was a whisker under $50k.
And then there are the “thought leaders” I saw at an event several weeks ago, who were extolling the virtues of “gas powered cars”.
The US could easily go retrograde in private vehicles too.
Steve
They’re also not looking at much of an SUV, period. CR-Vs start around $33k and go to the mid-40s. The HR-V starts around $27k.
There are well over a dozen different makes and models that start below $30k.