Nothing will surprise me today, but I guess most likely outcome will be a 25 basis point rate increase, done in a dovish “sorry about the banks” manner.
And market will probably pop, because they are all just a bunch of confused yolo/fomo/momo degens at this point, who long-ago forgot or abandoned any reality around fundamentals when it comes to stocks.
The growth investor hears that Stripe had a recent fund raise to be valued at $50b. The growth bros decry “wow…down 50%…can’t wait for them to IPO at those levels, what a steal!” while non-growth bros are like “$50b for what exactly?! Man…this is proof retail has learned nothing since 2020!”
Can you really shut down an economy, and businesses, at a large scale, as you did with Covid shutdowns, and then only have a downturn for a month or so? Is it akin to internal bleeding or cancer growing slowly undetected?
Then you mess with housing values, ramp inflation wildly, while letting market slide down for over a year (while still elevated historically) with what appears to be a soft economy on the horizon. Are your internal organs starting to struggle? Do you tear an achilles just walking the dog?
So then you let a few banks collapse, and all sorts of folks, this author included, start moving funds into bigger and bigger banks to sleep a bit more comfortably at night. All those regional banks should be fine long-term…right?
And in the face of all this, you think about cutting rates and backing off the inflation fight. Hmmm.
Tried buying a new car lately? How is it different in last 5 years? How about a used car?
Tried buying a house lately?
Had kids go off to college lately? Holy crapola, Batman. What a joke.
Tried to insure those teenage drivers? Oh. My. God.
I have had a decent job/income for a long time now.
And I seriously wonder: how do people making the average or median income, get by these days, at least with all the “essentials” of a modern society?
We have less marriage than ever, so less dual-income, but even if two incomes in a household, you have to offset the 2nd income with daycare, at least in early years of kids.
Mortgages higher than ever. $1000 is median in 2021. Should be higher now.
Home Insurance. Up.
Electric and gas bills…maybe separate water bill. All up.
Home insurance. Up.
Auto payments. Up.
Auto Insurance. Up. (WAY THE EFF UP IF 16-18 year old!)
Cell phone costs. Up.
Cell phone bills. Up.
Internet speed? Up. Internet cost? Also Up. (as cable companies shift from making money on tv/cable to internet)
TV/Cable cost? Downsized by many.
Hidden costs of all those streaming channels added when “cutting the cord”? Yeah, that stuff is UP.
Do you like to eat? UP. UP. UP.
Eat out? Up.
Eat in? Up.
Fill your auto with gas? Up.
I used to joke that you couldn’t spend $20 at Taco Bell. You just couldn’t…and I can eat crappy food. Circa 2010 or so it was still cheap as heck. Now? They actually have a $7+ burrito. Wha…? Don’t get me started on Chipotle…every restaurant now thinks “let’s just make it $10 or so, and jack up the soft drink and fries costs, too”.
This was all just largely living too. Take kids on vacation? All jacked UP.
Take family to a baseball game? There goes the vacation fund.
A day at Six Flags or the Water Park? Hundreds…hundreds.
Anyway. My rant/tangent is just to say, don’t worry about it. Enjoy the (likely) rally. Tell yourself a new bull market has started. You may even be right for a couple or several months.
I am sure everything is fine. We are all fine. Aren’t you?