I get the impression that some folks are upset with me.
“Why can’t you just be positive?!”
“Why can’t you just be optimistic?!”
As if my posting the actual news, and not my whimsical hopes and dreams, will somehow single-handedly bring about an end to their lucky FOMO/MOMO-based YTD “bull” run.
Literally, a couple months ago Saul dropped non-profitable SaaS and rediscovered how he picked stocks for the previous few decades successfully - namely that valuation and PE and mattered again.
Fast-forward a couple months and we are right back into the late 2020 and pre-Nov 2021 mindset.
I am actually an optimist.
My friggin username is “Dreamer” for a reason. I love technology and the benefits it can bring, and has brought, into the world. I do think AI, AV, and EV technologies will all continue to change the world. I always thought digitally targeted advertising that caters to the things I am actually interested in would always be a better outcome.
But I also want to have more money for my family and my retirement, than I do today.
To that end, I want to buy stuff at an entry price and sell it at a higher exit price.
I don’t want to gamble.
I don’t really want to trade. I am not good at it, nor do I have time and patience to get better at it while still full-time employed.
Ideally I want to enter stocks and hold for at least a year for tax purposes or at least until it hits the exit price…sometimes whichever comes first depending on a host of personal financial factors.
Most of the stuff everyone around here was buying in 2018 hasn’t panned out over 5 years in a meaningful way: SQ, AYX, TWLO, OKTA, etc…
How about just 2 years ago?
Saul port two years back:
his positions were:
Crowdstrike 18.4%
Cloudflare 16.5%
Datadog 16.5%
Upstart 14.5%
Snowflake 10.0%
Lightspeed 7.8%
Zscaler 7.8%
Docusign 5.1%
ZoomInfo 3.8%
I don’t think he is in any of those.
All should be much lower now, than at that time.
Yet if I said anything about those valuations, I was “being negative”.
Ok.
You do you.
I will do what I am going to do.
Here is what is going on out in the real world.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/401k-hardship-withdrawals/index.html
people taking out money…cause they need it.
people charging stuff to credit cards…cause they have to.
Don’t mind me. Just a negative Nancy.
I am sure it will all be just fine.
Dreamer