Let’s unpack that a little bit. According to the St. Louis Fed, 42% of homeowners had no mortgage. This percentage has varied between 43% and 35% since the data collection began in 1985. 35% occurred in the GFC, and 43% peak was 2015. I suggest the peak corresponded to those damned baby boomers selling, trading down and paying cash, but that is just a theory. The percentage was 40% in 1985 and that is pretty median/mean/average for the entire period.
So, what is the other side of that coin? Seems that this leaves over 48% of homeowners have mortgages under 4%. For the next 20 or 30 years. The pessimist worries about the bank balance sheets. On the other hand, 48% of 65% (U S home ownership percentage currently) of “consumer units”, aka families, are in the catbird’s seat as long as they don’t screw it up. Sounds about right. That’s about a third of families able to go to Citibeach’s restaurants, a third who are paying ever increasing rent (and maybe buying groceries on an eat now pay later basis), and a third with mortgage payments that are a bit more problematic. I don’t have a dog in this fight. Hell, I’m from the Silent Generation, the 31 of us still breathing, (just kidding). Baby Boomers are those young 'uns in the gated communities with no mortgages and two social security checks each month. Whatever. In my situation I am content to underperform this year and I am doing pretty well at meeting that goal.
GLTA,
Kc
The problem is our reality in this country is quite different than most of the rest of the world. We are consumers, and if we can’t afford both Hulu and Netflix, we think we have fallen behind.
I’ve traveled ro many parts of the globe, I’ve seen poor. I’ve walked through villages in West Africa, and Cambodia. I’ve met people that sleep on the ground. They literally have nothing, at least to our spoiled standards. Yet they seem so much happier. They have family and community.
I’ve learned a long time ago that the world is what we make of it. Mines pretty good. I don’t need much, I just need good friends, a good community around me and nature. Once in a while a bit of culture. I’m always on the glass half full camp. Even in 2022, I only saw the entire correction as an opportunity. There is a bright side to most everything.
Hey if that’s narcissistic, so be it. Dreamer doesn’t seem to like anyone with a positive attitude. So be it.
Just my usual reminder that more than a third of baby boomers don’t have a house, and don’t receive social security checks … because they are already dead!
Ok do K. Six Months it is. It appears Tom Lee’s earlier pediction of 5200 was over conservative and his latest upgrade is conservative still. It’s looking more like 6,000 by year end 2024. Actually all the negativity here is good for a rising market as it climbs the wall of worries. Anywhoo I’ve been selling since mid June and the cash is now approaching 45% most of it now invested in CDs and Money Market funds paying better than 5%.
Eventually you will be right, recession will come with a market dive then we can reinvest again see you in 2025!
Some on the left have claimed the Trump assassination attempt was staged.
A pundit online opined that hey better hope they are correct, as Alex Jones found out the hard way what happens when you claim real shootings are fake.
It will be fine. Just fine.
No one is even talking about removing Biden anymore.
Amazing the difference a week makes.
Not sure what was flagged. I don’t see anything on this end.
As far as everything not being fine? That list is probably longer than ever. How about Musk giving 45 million a month now to the Trump PAC. How about Musk on X daily spewing same crap as his new favorite orange guy. Yep the list is getting longer and longer. Can’t even get a good rendition of the National Anthem out any longer.
Yet retail spending holding up. More people traveling then ever. Demand is outpacing supply. Oh and the stock market at ATHs, rate cuts coming and now the lagging small caps moving up like a freight train daily.
I’m up 27% YTD with 15% cash and 12% now in TLT. On cruise control into the election.
Glass half empty should be the name of this board. Or maybe Grumpy Daddy.
FYI. As I said I’m on cruise control. Raised TLT a bit more today. Not looking for much more this year. In fact I’ll take a guess and say that we have already seen the highs for the year.
High side, I’d like to close above 30% for the year. Low side, I’ll take 20% all day long. In fact I thought doing 10% in 2024 would have been more than acceptable after a big comeback year in 2022.
So we may agree on direction of the market, I just do it with a glass half full, while you seem to go through all of this with a glass half empty of saw dust all of the time.
Or Debbie Downer maybe. Even Chicken Little might be appropriate. Henny Penny if your’re from across the pond.
But it’s only been only a few days since I said see you guys in 2025. However it seemed like we’re almost year end.
My question is are we at peak FOMO? and by that I mean FOMO on the bad news? It doesn’t even take 2 minutes to see bad news anymore. You click on one of these bad news, pretty soon you will be inundated with more on a daily basis.
Same thing with the opposite, the good news. At about the same time last week I also clicked on the best good news. Can’t even remember which one source was calling the US economy as never been better. They said that if it was an athlete it was at peak LeBron or if it was an entertainer the economy is in peak Taylor Swift mode. The news appparently is so good even the well known short seller Chanos is calling it quits.
What to make of these? We’re probably at peak FOMO for reporters of both bad and good news.
All I am saying is you may be both right!!
In the “mean” and I really mean while, T. Lee is now calling 15,000 on the S&P 500 by 2030 and at least one of the major dealers are for 6000 by year end.
More news, not sure if it is good or bad. DJT almost got assasinated and JB has COVID again.
What a rolller coaster ride.
Invest wisely.
You may juice the direction of rates with TLT and even more with TMF. I sold my TMF last week. Now cosidering TMV. While a a cut is looking like a sure thing, September is a long way off another up rates cycle could ensue before then.
Place your bets now the Casino is still open. I conclude this good news. Catch you later
The surprises are usually the ones that nobody is discussing and not the ones that people are discussing like AI bubbles!
nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that national debt held by the public (which excludes what the government owes itself) has will surpass the all-time record of 106 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2028
I know the current president isn’t seeking re-election but it doesn’t matter as both parties are massive spenders.
2016-2020 Republicans approved 4.6 trillion NOT related to Covid with the 2017 Tax cuts (2.3T) and 2019 Bipartisan Budget Act (2.3T)
Upcoming is the January 1st 2025 debt limit suspension being lifted.
Probable extension of the 2017 tax cuts that are scheduled to sunset in 2025 (another 3.9T debt increase)
Keep in mind all of the spending is put on a credit card. Current interest payments exceed defense spending.
I think the election may cause a little bumpiness in the short term but I do think the market runs up to some unknowable level and then a massive rug pull. That’s my plan to stay invested until I can’t sleep a night.
A country that is already deeply indebted will face great difficulty in rescuing itself from its situation
But until then, both parties are kicking the can down the road to keep the market going!
BTW AI will eventually be in a bubble but probably not until we see a lot of Non-revenue AI IPO’s and then of course the eventual bust
not my area of expertise, but feel like I have read multiple places that private equity/startup funding has kind of taken the wind out of the sails of IPOs for a while now. those of us following Saul-like stocks since 2016/2017 noticed this in the form of IPOs coming to market already handsomely valued (DDOG, ZM, SNOW) compared to IPOs in the just the prior year or two before.
Might be neither here nor there…just saying am not sure you get the chance to see the plethora of IPOs vs just startups collapsing and going out of business due to funding drying up, before they ever make it to an IPO.
It’s just a matter of time until it really takes hold…I hope they buy more chips
As former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick built out media and publishing companies in recent years, he found that creators looking to get into those businesses often run into a series of roadblocks along the way.
Now he’s developing a playbook that aims to give access and opportunity to storytellers who have found the industry difficult to break into.
Kaepernick is launching a new artificial intelligence company that aims to use technology to help people clear some of those barriers. Lumi Story AI, which is backed by Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian’s venture capital firm Seven Seven Six, plans to use AI’s capabilities to give aspiring creators tools they might otherwise not have access to.
