Everything is fine - we are all fine...how are you?

Let’s unpack that a little bit. According to the St. Louis Fed, 42% of homeowners had no mortgage. This percentage has varied between 43% and 35% since the data collection began in 1985. 35% occurred in the GFC, and 43% peak was 2015. I suggest the peak corresponded to those damned baby boomers selling, trading down and paying cash, but that is just a theory. The percentage was 40% in 1985 and that is pretty median/mean/average for the entire period.
So, what is the other side of that coin? Seems that this leaves over 48% of homeowners have mortgages under 4%. For the next 20 or 30 years. The pessimist worries about the bank balance sheets. On the other hand, 48% of 65% (U S home ownership percentage currently) of “consumer units”, aka families, are in the catbird’s seat as long as they don’t screw it up. Sounds about right. That’s about a third of families able to go to Citibeach’s restaurants, a third who are paying ever increasing rent (and maybe buying groceries on an eat now pay later basis), and a third with mortgage payments that are a bit more problematic. I don’t have a dog in this fight. Hell, I’m from the Silent Generation, the 31 of us still breathing, (just kidding). Baby Boomers are those young 'uns in the gated communities with no mortgages and two social security checks each month. Whatever. In my situation I am content to underperform this year and I am doing pretty well at meeting that goal. :slight_smile:



The problem is our reality in this country is quite different than most of the rest of the world. We are consumers, and if we can’t afford both Hulu and Netflix, we think we have fallen behind.
I’ve traveled ro many parts of the globe, I’ve seen poor. I’ve walked through villages in West Africa, and Cambodia. I’ve met people that sleep on the ground. They literally have nothing, at least to our spoiled standards. Yet they seem so much happier. They have family and community.

I’ve learned a long time ago that the world is what we make of it. Mines pretty good. I don’t need much, I just need good friends, a good community around me and nature. Once in a while a bit of culture. I’m always on the glass half full camp. Even in 2022, I only saw the entire correction as an opportunity. There is a bright side to most everything.

Hey if that’s narcissistic, so be it. Dreamer doesn’t seem to like anyone with a positive attitude. So be it.


All these posts reminded me of this:

‘The pessimist complains about the wind, the optimist expects it to change the realist adjusts the sails.’

William Arthur Ward:


Just my usual reminder that more than a third of baby boomers don’t have a house, and don’t receive social security checks … because they are already dead!

Ok do K. Six Months it is. It appears Tom Lee’s earlier pediction of 5200 was over conservative and his latest upgrade is conservative still. It’s looking more like 6,000 by year end 2024. Actually all the negativity here is good for a rising market as it climbs the wall of worries. Anywhoo I’ve been selling since mid June and the cash is now approaching 45% most of it now invested in CDs and Money Market funds paying better than 5%.
Eventually you will be right, recession will come with a market dive then we can reinvest again see you in 2025! :grinning: