I’m sure he’ll make it up in Hertz (HTZ). Umm. Err. Maybe not…
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According to the article, he took his pay in the form of company stock, not in the form of crypto.
Lies!!!
Everyone knows economy is strong and workers make more now!
Inflation is down!
Everything is fine!
Dreamer
this rule is probably meaningless then…
And all this while running a budget deficit…
Dreamer
I fully expect we bounce, at some point…perhaps hit new market highs, too.
Partly this is bc election cycle and hard not to feel like markets are juiced to not collapse and hand Trump an easy victory.
Still believe whoever becomes POTUS inherits a recession and likely takes the blame for it, and ushers in an easy opposition win in 2028.
But these drops are like tremors, imo…signs that the bubbly frothiness is unsustainable and eventually we get the full capitulation.
This is always seen as me being “negative” when I am just looking for markets to be “rational”. I like the idea of being a stock picker when due diligence actually means something vs just throwing darts at the wall and everything goes up blindly. No need to rehash it here again, but things have been broken since 2008…rates kept low for decade plus and spending deficits fueled enormous bull runs, along with the ascent of the current Tech Titans. AI will be a thing, but I see it as more commoditized and a feature and the winners and losers will be defined by whoever has the most appealing or useful AI features that consumers and business want or benefit from having. Those winners aren’t clear yet, but you imagine META still has designs on creating the Oasis from Ready Player One, that MSFT can incorporate AI across business apps, that Tesla can utilize AI in self-driving and the general auto experience, etc etc…
But not everyone deserves a $2T or $3T mkt cap right this instance. Not all growth needs to be baked in 10 years in advance.
Sometimes some pain is a good thing…hit the reset button, regain commonsense. That is all I am looking for. Hopefully it will be quick and likely an oversold nature occurs and that is where I swoop in for my next round of long-term holds. Covid interrupted what was likely a normal recession or correction that was overdue by 2020. And yeah we had the plunge but then the gains were nonsensical thru 2021 and most stock charts reflect that.
I don’t want a decade of doom or even a few years, but a repeat of 2022 with a bit more oomph would do the trick. Now that AI is out of the bag, likely there wouldn’t be a repeat of the NVDA climb and we can enjoy a period similar to 2010-2019 again.
Right now it feels like the market is on a bender in Vegas, blowing money on strip clubs and gambling and they largely keep winning big. The house always wins, and the hangover is gonna be epic.
Enjoy the weekend all!
Dreamer
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Remember when the 787 billion 2008 rescue act was called socialism!
What do we call the $12.5 Trillion in spending by both parties since then?
We’re all being distracted by “politics”
Dems and republicans massive spending Tom Tauke: Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump seems willing to address the national debt-2024-07-15
Current interest on our debt. $892 billion a year $2.4 billion a day. $100 million an hour!
Extension of the 2017 tax breaks could end up adding $4 to $5 trillion to ten-year deficits (on a credit card)
EXCLUDING COVID for both parties:
Trump added 4.6 Trillion to the national debt
Biden up to this point added 4.3 Trillion
Then of course they both added more due to COVID
The best part is the debt ceiling goes back into affect Jan 1st 2025,
I’m sure that will be fine!
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Yeah, imagine running a budget deficit. Although I did a quick lookup and it seems we have had a budget deficit in 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 2021, 2022, 2023, and of course 2024.
So yeah, pretty unusual. I only looked back as far as 1970, but I could go back further if it would help.
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Wow.
I guess you are right.
Nothing wrong with our debt in US.
Everything is fine.
Oh…and a 5-second google search produces this:
Thanks though,
Dreamer
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Running a deficit during a large recession I get. Running a deficit during COVID I get… Running a multi-trillion $$ deficit during what is supposed to be a great economy and historically low unemployment makes no sense. Im sure it will be fine.
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In case folks were too lazy to click on my link.
This is the part goofy conveniently omitted:
Dreamer
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I didn’t conveniently omit it. It’s right there for anyone to see.
Speaking of, isn’t it weird how those recession bars move farther and farther apart as the line goes up? No sense in trying to figure out why, I suppose.
Yes I agree the massive money printing by both parties has pushed out each recession further out BUT each of those recessions have become successively much more severe. So not weird at all that they are pushed out with the MASSIVE money printing since 2008. The bigger the bubble the bigger the pop requiring much more government intervention when the next recission hits.
Currently we stand above 35 Trillion dollars and increasing 1 Trillion dollars every 100 days
That’s without extending 2017 tax cuts set to expire next year. They are projected to cost 4-5 Trillion to the debt.
It’s an election year so this seems like a good idea too, Increase deficit by 1.6-1.8 Trillion
I supposed I liken this to a person making $50,000 taking out $60,000 (todays outstanding debt)in credit cards. Going forward we add another $5,000-10,000 because we like our lifestyle and want to keep it going.
Then when the next recession comes that is worse than 2008 because they are less often and become successively much more severe.
I think we’ll be fine right?
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That’s interesting, because the recession of 2000 was extraordinarily mild compared to the two at the beginning of the Reagan administration. As was the recession of 1992, so mild that most people didn’t even know there was one.
2008 was a lulu, but then it had nothing to do with the country’s debt and was all about the looseness of regulation over the country’s banks. The recession of 2020 was due entirely to the emergence of a worldwide pandemic and had zero to do with the country’s debt and in any even was relatively mild and shallow compared with many of those previous ones.
So methinks you are making up your answers to comport with your belief, rather than shaping your belief to comport with the facts.
All of that said, it’s obvious that this sort of debt increase cannot continue forever, and it is difficult to see how we get it back until control unless and until there is some sort of serious shock to the system. The other problem is that if you suddenly squeeze out all of that spending you actually induce the problem you’re trying to solve. Removing that much liquidity would be, in itself, a shock to the system which could cause the very problem you’re (rightfully) concerned about.
It’s a quandary, I admit.
I guess there is the measure of recession (gdp etc) vs stock market in a recession.
When i think about 2000, i was fairly young in late 20s but job market seemed fine and i dont remember a bad economy. However…I do remember CSCO and MSFT and JNPR and all the tech darlings imploding. Cisco never regained thay mkt cap, yet grew for next 20+ years…MSFT took over 15 years to reach 2000 stock price again.
Juniper still in business, w revenues much larger than 2000, and still at fraction of the stock price back then.
Etc etc
So, at least for me, I am only ever thinking of impact to stocks in my posts. Admittedly not a bond guru or someone that studies gdp levels.
Just expecting a big ol’ stock market drop, probably by eoy due to election. Yeah market taking a hit at moment but up huge still YTD, so lets keep perspective.
To be specific, i am looking at 2022 lows to be revisited. This may be on stock by stock basis, as AI and NVDA has warped the indexes. I dont see NVDA retesting 2022 lows, to be clear.
So i care less about indexes and more about ind stocks on my watchlist.
Dreamer
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ZoomInfo reported. ZI.
Former Saul darling.
-6% y/y growth.
This is the company that provides sales leads to other businesses/enterprises.
“the go-to-market platform to find, acquire, and grow customers”
Gives you an idea of the state of things.
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19807852-zoominfo-announces-second-quarter-2024-financial-results?source=section%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews#hasComeFromMpArticle=false
Should be fine.
Dreamer
Keep an eye out for the 4th quarter BLS job gain/loss report for private sector. 3rd quarter report came out May 20 and showed a loss of 192,000 jobs versus, I believe, a gain of 500,000 for the weekly survey reports for the quarter. Of course, in this market, with all the economic and macroeconomic news and geopolitical factors, no one may care about jobs data two weeks down the road.
NASDAQ chart is just ugly. My silver and bitcoin positions are kinda heavy these last few days. Gold is steady, so silver is soft due to industrial use, not good sign for economy. Ditto copper/gold ratio.
KC
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Lots of great reports out there. To name a few.
MELI, META, TMDX, UBER, APP, ASPN, TTD. the hits just keep coming.
If they aren’t great, SMCI come to mind, you take advantage of the opportunity and build the position. A gift around and below 500.
Having the right play list keeps the energy up, along with the portfolio.
Glass half full and loving the volatility. With volatility comes opportunity.
This has been a message from the positive corner of the universe.
Trying to change one Debbie Downer at a time.
Have a Namaste!
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some people (me) prefer the 150% cagr from Jan 2018 to Jan 2020 for TTD.
others prefer the 30% CAGR from Jan 2020 to present.
tomato, tomahto.
Hey - as long as you didn’t buy TTD since Nov 2020, you should be up. Unless of course your market timing is godlike and you bought the June 2022 and Dec 2022 TTD lows.
Don’t worry - pretty sure you will get another shot to buy lower than $60 in next 6-12 months.
Careful that your guaranteed dip-buying deals aren’t Zoom part deux down the road. (looking at you, SMCI)
Dreamer
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Biked to the gym….longest line yet for Loaves and Fishes.
Obviously they are just a bunch of glass half empty types.
Just open a restaurant that caters to upper income types who dont feel the bite of inflation like the common folk…its easy apparently!
No excuses…smile and dance and subsist on ramen and water. It will be fine!
Dreamer
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