I want to be more long.
Always regretted missing out on Monster Energy stock, since i drink it every day for over a decade now. It is my coffee. Buy bulk at costco.
Anyway…so Celsius has my attention.
Bought some more product to see if I can get behind it…and I find it average. Orange…Wild Berry. Ok. Monster zero blows it away, imo. Including Monster Rehab.
But, again, i dont crave red bull either. Trying to keep open mind. But sitting on that idea outside mammoth correction.
Dreamer
DKS down 24% and Macys down 14% today.
Pretty solid well known middle/upper income shopping destinations.
I am sure it is nothing.
I am sure it will all be fine.
The US consumer is strong! Go buy a home and live the American Dream!
Oh…wait:
No worries…other bills are likely under control!
Hmmm…
It will all be fine.
You just need to hold your stocks for 20 years and have a glass half full outlook, and you can ignore reality.
Like not evacuating your beachfront home when the hurricane is near.
It will be just fine.
Dreamer
pot stocks up huge.
Zoom and Gamestop up bigly, too.
Seems like a legit bull market to me.
(waves the “All Clear” banner overhead)
Dreamer
welcome to the new Bull Market of 2023! Things are going great…yeah!
But, hey, I am just passing along “negative” news. If you are fairly well-to-do, and it is sunny outside at the moment, you can literally afford to just put your head in the sand.
Ignorance isn’t an excuse. It can be the reason though.
But I am sure it will be fine. Just fine.
Dreamer
Don’t worry about rates and bonds and all this nonsense.
Valuation ain’t gonna matter none!
Why shucks…I done made 3000% since 2016. That’s just the way things be now.
I’m an olllllllld timer, you see. Heck…I can remember 08/09!
Bad governance since the start of the millennium in congress/potus doomed economy. It has just been a series of the Fed acting like this guy:
But that only works so long.
This has been bugging me since I started investing, and unfortunately I was born as an investor in the late 1990s. Things were good! Things were…a bit too easy.
Don’t question the Gorilla Game!
This time it’s different.
Then March 2000…and 2-3 years of pain.
But how quickly we forget as house prices sky rocket, giving us the sense of wealth!
Then mid/late 2008 kicks in…and 2-3 years of pain.
Fed takes their biggest piece of Flex Tape ever out, and we march forward into low/no interest rate QE obvliousness.
Then Covid. And a really really poorly thought-out government shutdown, which caused a turbo boost to QE/stimulus, further fueling an out of control US debt.
Kick that can…
Retail gurus start making 200-300% y/y on…anything. Meme stocks are a thing. NFTs are a thing. Crypto alt-coins are a thing. What could go wrong? This time is different!
2022 has a minor retracement, but it feels like a tsunami to the Retail gurus.
So much so that 2023 provides a bit of a comeback, and they think that the anomaly…wait for it…was 2022 and not any of the insanity on the way up.
You can’t make this up. We probably do live in a simulation…cause sane people wouldn’t do this and elect a tv show fraud and propel the country towards civil war type internal turmoil, in the midst of financial missteps that would have already destroyed any individual or business.
So what now?
Don’t worry.
I am sure it will be fine. Just fine.
Dreamer
Rick Santelli is informative most of the time as a contrarian opinion.
However, every once in a while, he needs to say strongly incredulous and outrageous things to boost his ratings and those of his finmedia entertainment channel…
Remember his previous rant against a sitting President…that went viral?
He was so proud of that moment…even though he knew that the President had nothing to do with the housing market conditions and the risks that Wall Street had taken to build the house of cards that came crumbling down.
I listen to his analysis with a grain of salt because he is incented to bump up ratings…
$1 TRILLION CREDIT CARD DEBT IN FOCUS
The U.S. consumer is showing signs of stress with credit card balances reaching a record $1.03 trillion in Q2 2023, according to bank regulatory data compiled by KBRA Financial Intelligence (KFI). More consumers are falling behind on their credit card payments with delinquency rates increasing to 2.7% from a pandemic-era low of 1.5%.
Let’s see, must be the little banks that that aren’t maintaining lending standards, right? Uhm, The largest banks―lenders with more than $50 billion in assets―are reporting the highest delinquency rates at 2.9%, according to a KFI analysis of all bank credit card debt and delinquency rates. Ally Bank, Capital One, and Goldman Sachs Bank USA reported the highest delinquency rates among peers at 5.9%, 4.4%, and 4.2%, respectively.
Regional banks have lower delinquency rates of 2.7%, while the smallest lenders maybe have fingers on the pulse better, the lowest delinquency rates at 2%.
I’m sure everything will be fine. The above from a KBR report.
KC checks his portfolio for Tuesday action. Consumer sort of stocks: VFC up 14%, PVH up 5.2%, FOUR up 2.3% and our friend SPG up 1.7%. Disclosure, activist investor took a large stake in VFC and I suspect PVH just up in sympathy. But still…
KC
ENPH was about $225 just prior to my above April note, and about $165 after.
It is about $100 in AH at the moment, down 12-13%.
This represents a retracement back 3 years to Oct 2020.
From a chart, for no particular reason except wishing all 2020/covid stock price excesses to die a horrible death, I am targeting $75 or lower before I sit up and pay attention.
But I am sure it will all be fine. Just fine.
Dreamer
Dreamer,
The entire Solar stocks have been killed…Not ENPH specific, but yes, should it have even gotten there…How I wish I had stayed away…I got in at 175 after I had seen it falling all the way from 350 to 175…had an opportunity in june/ july where it went up even to 195, but did not…I guess I was hoping that it may be a long term holding…but I sold after that disaster ER when it went to 150…but stupidly went into a revenge trade selling a PUT for 140…and funny enough, just yesterday I was thinking I should come out at a slightly loss, as it had moved up all the way from 110 to 135ish or so…Alas, SEDG took everything down with it today!
Having said that, it makes no difference if you say you will buy a stock like this at 75 versus now…Are you confident that Solar energy will be a big thing in say a decade from now? If yes, please correct me if I am wrong, aren’t ENPH and SEDG “THE” key players in this market due to their specific niche areas ( inverters I believe?)
That is what I am trying to assess now.
Thanks,
Charlie
Charlie,
ENPH, at the current “bargain” dip price of $100, is still a 100x return from about 2017.
The problem w chasing $5b, $10b, $15b and $25b mkt cap stocks because they are well off their highs ignores the question of whether all the best gains were already gotten years ago.
Some of this depends on when company IPOd. DDOG cam in at peak SaaS mania upswing, with best in class metrics. It was expensive on day 1 and still is today.
A bunch of us made great gains on sub-$2b mkt caps in early 2018, like AYX, MDB, and TTD.
I dont regret missing TTD from $26 to $75 or wherever it is today, because i rode it from $4 (split adjusted) to $26.
There is a difference between a company and a company’s stock price. You can like one and not the other.
Some people look at how far a stock is from ATH.
Some look how far it has come in past 3-5 years or more.
Yet others only care about the growth metrics and price doesnt matter.
There is no existing perfect stock picking methodology. They can all work and they can all miss.
More importantly, you dont need to convince me. You just need to convince yourself.
ENPH is a leader, for sure. I am less sure what that is actually worth, now and 1-3 years in the future.
Good luck,
Dreamer
Oh no, I wasnt trying to convince you…Far from it…I neither have the knowledge or experience to attempt that…I am not even going to try convincing myself…every time I have done that, it has backfired dramatically! So, I am just trying to decide if this has a moat or not. If no moat and solar energy adoption is still multiple decades away/ a story that may or may not happen, then I should exit now…if not, I guess I can hold but knowing fully well, that it is possibly going down for a while.
Any idea why the solar stocks are being killed despite the Inflation reduction act or whatever of the umpteen acts introduced recently that was supposed to promote green energy.
Thanks,
Charlie
High interest rates. Most of what they sell cost $15-25K and consumers usually finance them and they don’t want to finance at high rates cause they won’t save money that way. It’s the same reason Tesla has been slashing car prices - to give the consumer lower monthly payment since the rates are high.
Thanks, that makes a ton of sense…but ENPH has been a roller coaster ride for those who have owned it for a while.
There is a high short interest on it too…3.4 days to cover…If someone with a lot of money jumps in now that would be lovely 
I am still trying to assess if there is a long term story here.
I have been busy relocating from Midwest to Colorado. So far it’s been awesome, I should have done this a long time ago.
Just a follow up to my July 25th post. Back then I surmised
Also a follow up to my July 25th post. Back then I surmised
Also, a mea culpa that even when your correct on the direction of the economy you can still lose money as I started nibling on TLT starting August 3rd and that has been noting but down since then.
So my take on the current environment: some good and some negative.
First the negative: long bond yeld getting to 5% have been driving the market down as FED higher for longer is finally getting priced in.
The problem with higher long term debt yields that is what’s called a bear steepening yield curve. A bear steepening yield curve means that the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates is increasing, and that long-term rates are rising faster than short-term rates. This usually happens when investors are worried about inflation or a bearish stock market in the near future.
As we become un-inverted something to keep an eye on.
A bear steepening yield curve can be a sign of trouble for the stock market, especially if it is driven by rising inflation expectations or a worsening economic outlook. However, a bear steepener can also be a temporary phenomenon that reflects market volatility or uncertainty, and may not necessarily lead to a prolonged downturn in stocks.
Here is the data that can start to tell us if it’s a real problem or just an anomaly:
Core services excluding housing ticked up on the last CPI. Fortunately Jerome essentially said the FED is willing to discount this one-time up tick. So that’s a good thing for now but the next read is November 14th. We’ll see if it was a one-time tick up or the start of a new trend which would be very bad.
Along with all that there was some concern that demand for 30 year treasury’s On October 12th was weak. When that happens, the government needed to entice investors with higher yields. The next 30 year is scheduled for Thursday, November 9, 2023
So here is the potential good news:
On October 18th 20 year bond yields did show strong demand.
Seasonality: It not just you thinking October is a crappie month for stocks. It actually is the most volatile month of the year for the market. But that volatility can bring opportunity.
Since 1971 Nasdaq has rallied from October low to q4 year end 46 of 52 years. Average gain 9.5%, of those 6 losses only one time was a pre election year. 88.5% of the time the market will be up from where we are currently to the end of the year. In addition, the low point is usually about October 24th. The day before huge number of S&P 500 companies start reporting. I not usually big on seasonality but keeping an eye on it.
Hopefully the market can start to focus on what really matters which is earnings!
So I am cautiously bullish short term due to earnings this week but long term bearish I think.
It’s good to have my assumptions challenged and have a fruitful discussion, I think helps me to see any blind spots I might have.
BTY If earnings seem to be going good, I may start to buy into Upstart again. Not because it’s currently a great company but I see it as a highly leveraged short-term bet on how the economy is doing. It seemed to hold up well until Friday.
Wednesday was truly ugly market, particularly for the tech side of things. Even at 82% cash, it was ugly. Stuff like that happens when 7 of 17 positions are down more than 5%. The start was pretty good. I’ve been nibbling on PGY which is now #3, and it was up 12.5% at the open. Closed up just 1.7%. I added to ENVX and put my MNDY trade back on, but those weak opens just got weaker.
DDOG down 7% and another 1.5% after hours. CRWD down 4& plus another 0.5% AH. BILL down 9%, recovered 0.5 AH. GLBE down 5% and another 1.5% AH. AFRM down 15% and another 1.5 AH. FOUR down 7% and recovered 2% AH, I don’t own CRWD, BILL, AFRM (or UPST) at the moment.
What else can we observe in the debris field? Consumer? Best performers were VFC, SPG and PVH which you may recognize as malls and clothing. Still some room on the on the credit card accounts, I guess. MNRO was one of my oversold stock selections. I bailed on it some months ago. Mufflers and the like. Missed on revenue, disappointed on forecast, beat earnings by a penny and was up almost 6%. Gotta keep that 2nd or 3rd car (clunker) running and the credit card still works… But it does pay 4.5% dividend. Need to give it another look.
So, all that cash. I should be happy, but all I do is cryyyyy. NASDQ down 2.4% to 12,821. The 200 day moving average is shedding those low numbers from Q1, and the 100-day is shedding the peak numbers from Q2. Which means? By year end, if we drop another 3% we would have that “death cross”, or whatever it is called, where the 200-day goes lower than the 100-day.
I still have my 'good ‘til’ order for SNOW at $131. It is at $141 AH. It is my canary in the coal mine. Which would win, the NASDQ chart or the SNOW buy point?
KC
Consumer strong!
Soft Landing!
Nothing to see here…everything will be fine!
Here is an interesting, recent chat between Druck and TudorJones.
Enjoy!
This is insanity.
Many will find this to be a socialist bent, and that probably is true, but I have often wondered about the benefits/downside of allowing health and food companies to be publicly traded. Why? The public company board/CEO is typically driven to maximize share price and/or internal incentives when it comes to meeting Wall Street expectations. Some truly greats like Berkshire don’t play the game, and don’t give Qtrly guidance that MUST be hit every time or the stock is pummeled. But most do play the game, and in order to do what is “best” for shareholders/board they must continually show growth and maximize profits.
How does that manifest itself? Ridiculously expensive healthcare and even the Taco Bells and McDonalds of the world forgetting their place as the low-cost quick meal for everyone and especially for lower-income cohorts.
Case in point:
The Golden Arches brought in a total of $6.69 billion in revenue for the three-month period ended Sept. 30 — beating expectations of $6.58 billion, according to Refinitiv analysts.
However, McDonald’s — which has 13,513 restaurants in the US and over 38,000 abroad — did not disclose how much the franchiser has increased its prices, which generally vary between locations.
One branch in Darien, Conn., charged as much as $18 for a Big Mac combo meal, which includes medium fries and a medium soft drink.
Meanwhile, that same Big Mac combo will run hungry patrons $13.69 at a McDonald’s in Times Square.
–
That is nuts. Used to get Chipotle burrito and a drink for $10 and that was a great burrito. Now closer to $15. I used to have a running joke in my 20’s that you couldn’t spend $20 at Taco Bell, and it was actually hard to do. Now it is just a couple items and a drink. But McDonalds…McDonalds???
This will not end well.
I am already starting to notice little things. The frozen chicken things my son likes ballooned up to $12 a bag at grocery store during height of 2022 inflation/supply chain and now $6.99. Many items still out of whack, including sodas, but also seeing cracks, at least with certain brands. Coke Zero seems to still think they are selling vintage wine or something, but I predict that comes back to Earth soon. But restaurants have not gotten the memo. Just taking older teens to a restaurant or even the fast casual haunts are shocking. If it is 4 of us, I am regularly clocking in at $60-80 when it probably used to be $40-50. Keep in mind that I hardly eat in these scenarios. (c’mon…you don’t put garbage in a Ferrari, people!!!)
Whether I have the money or not is irrelevant. Some of it is principle of the thing, and I have already been doing the calculus on “how much is that per meal” as I buy more from Costco, especially for my own food needs. I do buy soda in (3) 12-packs if it is $5.99 per vs $7.99 for the solo 12-pack.
I don’t buy new cars. I haven’t since 2001, I think. I remember my friend buying an Expedition for $40k about 20 years ago, because he needed something strong enough to pull his boat. I thought it was an insane amount of money for a vehicle at the time. Now that is like a Corolla or something. I spend the money on maintenance every year and still make out well ahead of the folks dishing out $400-1000/month in car payments. Crazy.
Anyway. I am sure it will all work out. Everyone flush with cash from making bank in 2020 or 2021. Or maybe they all sold this Summer after being up 40%. (Not! You know they figured good times were here again to stay, and expected to make 80-200%)
And all those companies trying to maximize profits in a declining Rev growth environment will be sure to keep on all their employees and continuing raising wages in-line with inflation. Not.
But it will all be fine.
Fine like Biden walking up or down the stairs to a plane. That kind of “fine”.
Dreamer
Hot take, I blame the consumer for at least SOME of this. McDonalds knows they can raise prices and lose an insignificant amount of business. Why does a Big Mac meal cost $15? Because there’s enough idiots willing to pay (sorry if that offends anyone reading this). I find it very amusing that MCD’s just posted revenue up 14% Y/Y, and earnings up 19% Y/Y, but they claim they need to raise prices to cover higher wages?
My wife and I are in the low 90’th something percentile for house hold income in the US, and in a moderate cost of living area. We barely ever get fast good, and when we do I usually end up griping about how expensive it has gotten. Meanwhile you see lower income people eating it daily. I’ve had people that worked for me that would get fast food for breakfast and lunch every day. I would guess probably dinner as well. Do you blame the corporation for excessively raising prices, or the consumer that continues to buy the product, despite there being much cheaper alternate options.
If you can afford the plane ticket, a Big Mac, fries and medium soft drink is the equivalent of $3.60 here (or so I am told). Of course that is half a day’s work for a casual worker, so still not affordable for lower income.
KC