The AH pop from AMZN and BILL and others just fizzled. I think Dreamer is going to be on the right side of this one, again.

If I were even semi-pro on this investing stuff, I would know where the money in-flow and out-flow are occurring. I haven’t a clue, except it ain’t goin’ into my stocks.

Earnings… the last hope. Assuming any of that even matters.

Obviously, the KC is an unhappy camper. I did get my 1065’s and associated forms completed today, and California actually has their forms available. So, taxes this weekend. Talk about a downer, doing taxes and updating my investment spread sheet. At least Denmark has declared an end to all COVID restrictions. Maybe sanity will prevail in the U.S. in the coming weeks… Nah. Silly me.


Earnings… the last hope. Assuming any of that even matters.

I think the earnings will matter, if msft/googl/snap vs fb/nflx are any judge.
Question is if the benefits will be mainly just in AH that day or the next day, and then it fades back a bit into the general mood of the macro that week?

Starting to think I may make a series of small pre-ER plays into stocks likely to have good numbers.
The risky thing is that this isn’t Q3 ER with another expected Q4 forecast raise. This is Q4 with the longer and more-sandbagged upcoming FY to forecast along with Q1. I think that provides more oppty for negative mr market to drop a good ER report on “light forecast” vibes.

did I just talk myself out of that plan already? Ack. Who knows. You get killed in this market chop right now.

I am adding same chunk of SPG back that I sold yesterday, right now, ahead of their earnings. I think they will have had a great Q4, hopefully raise dividend, and generally sound positive about things. And they aren’t tech. Inflation could hurt their tenants, but they serve wealthier areas so I think maybe not as much. Not expecting massive pop, but if I am going to go long SPG it should be:

  1. when price is down (down again this am)
  2. dividend about to be announced (period thru ex-div date best for share appreciation “they say”)
  3. good ERs seem to be rewarded and ecommerce numbers didn’t seem crazy good for AMZN, and with supply chain issues, wonder if more people got what they needed in person over holidays, than expected.



The AH pop from AMZN and BILL and others just fizzled.

Uhmm, came back a little. But let be take out my worn and scratched record and give it a spin. VOLUME. Pathetic. Except for DDOG and MNDY, volume was 40% to 60% (o.k., maybe a 75%) of 10-day average. GLBE was up over 3% on 1/3 average volume. I guess “investors” are afraid to buy and unwilling to sell.

I did my part (or DW did). Bought Lightspeed on the FB news, just sold it after hours for 7% gain. I think that moved her needle 0.05%.

So, like the 1940 refugees in Casablanca, I wait, and wait, and wait. Not for my visa to Portugal, but for earnings. Hmmm. Today’s practice song on the sax: As Time Goes Bye. Here’s lookin’ at you, kid.



Some macro guys are freaked.
Might be big moves next week…up or down.




Ia agree in sense that 40-60% moves in a day on $50-500b mkt caps is not normal.

Ever get a spinning top going and tap it lightly? Starts wobbling out of control. That feels like this drunk market.

When folks keep buying dips this hard, there is not capitulation.

We have effectively prolonged the agony by not capitulating quickly. It is not dissimilar to 2 years of pandemic restrictions and guidelines that never fixed the problem and only now after omicron is run amok do we finally look to have light at end of tunnel.

I dont know what will happen, but i am ok missing the bs moves and biding my time.



When folks keep buying dips this hard, there is not capitulation.

The swings are so vicious, the recovery are equally fast, if you don’t realize the capitulation for the latest decline occurred on Jan 24th.

I would like to see a slow bleed, that will take the spirit out of the bulls’ and break the will of the market. For now, I am long shares and own puts (not cheap).

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