Bear Market Rally

The big question for those of us who are not fully invested is whether we have hit the bottom–as least as far as the known known’s and unknown’s are concerned. Dreamer has fairly high conviction that there is more to come, or at least that we haven’t visited the June (?) lows for the last time. My growing feeling is that assuming there are no new shocks, that investor sentiment has reached its low. Not saying that we won’t bounce around here and and have significant dips towards the previous lows. And this is with regard to the broad market. As Dreamer noted, UPST could well do another nose plant next week after ER due to company specific issues.

[7:15, pre-market open, UPST up morei to $26.50. I have 40% of my shares subject to the $25.50 strike.]

Back to the market bottom. My view is colored by DW’s portfolio. She is much more diversified, 26 companies and not so concentrated in tech. She has 13% and 10% in OKE and SPG–high dividend payers. And a little bit in restaurants and 18% cash. The rest in tech and only 1.5% in UPST. But she hit a low on June 16, down 47% from her November 8, 2021 high. She is now up 14% off that low. She has had series of 3 higher lows and 4 higher highs. Just gives me the feeling that I should be adding to the higher, longer term conviction companies. The problem, of course, is that if there are the (legendary?) opportunistic buys, they need to be made in the next low when you don’t really feel like buying.

Looking forward to getting the UPST ER behind us so I can focus on putting cash to work. I think the 3rd Q and year-end forecast will be the share price mover. I would hope that the pre-announcement will prove accurate.




“It always goes further than you think.
When it it time to buy (or sell) you won’t want to.”

Those are pearls of wisdom that seem to flutter around the internet, but I do think they ring true.

Again, two views on this BMR:

  1. If it is not a BMR, then I still maintain general upside in growth stocks I like is limited, because what reasoning is there that we return to 2020/2021 momentum craziness, given all the macro backdrop? Your rebuttal may be “ok, so maybe they don’t double from here, but what if they go up another 30-40%?” and that is totally fair. I just feel that it is, again, a momentum play and not a play with a clearly defined entry/exit strategy, which I tend to prefer.

  2. If it is a BMR, I sure hope I know when to finally short, because then I may ironically finally earn enough to get back to even or maybe slightly up YTD, before I finally go long again. That would be nice. Hey - a Dreamer can dream, right?


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