Exact Sciences (EXAS) reported their third quarter results on 10/29/19, here’s their company release:
http://investor.exactsciences.com/investor-relations/press-r…
EXAS was busy this quarter as they officially expanded their Cologuard label to include 45-49 Y.O., increasing their TAM by 20%. They now have 5.2% market share, with a goal of 40%. They also began using their new lab to process samples and implemented the Epic electronic health record system this quarter.
Some highlights from the release:
- Revenue was $218.8 million, an increase of 85 percent, and Cologuard test volume was 456,000, an increase of 89 percent
- Average Cologuard recognized revenue per test was $479, a decline of $13
- Average Cologuard cost per test was $114, an improvement of $10 per test
- Gross margin was 76 percent, an increase of 130 basis points
- Operating expenses were $201.7 million, an increase of 56 percent
- Transaction-related costs for the planned Genomic Health combination were $7.1 million, and integration-related costs were $2.1 million
- Net loss was $40.5 million, or $0.31 per share, compared to $45.4 million, or $0.37 per share
- Non-cash interest expense related to convertible debt was $11.0 million, or $0.08 per share, compared to $8.4 million, or $0.07 per share
- Cash utilization was $78.9 million, compared to $36.9 million; the third quarter cash use included $43.2 million of fees paid to Pfizer for services incurred from October 2018 through the end of June 2019
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $1.2 billion at the end of the quarter
Their full year 2019 rev outlook is for $802-$810M. I think this is why the shares retreated after the release (along with the rotation out of high growth) as the midpoint would only be a YOY increase of 57% for Q4 when they’ve shown increases of 80%, 94%, and 85% for the past 3 quarters. Yet the avg analyst estimate for Q4 is $240M, that would be YOY rev growth of 68%.
Their rev numbers:
Revs (Millions)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Revs Growth
2016 $15 $21 $28 $35 $99 152.0%
2017 $48 $58 $73 $87 $266 167.9%
2018 $90 $103 $118 $143 $454 70.7%
2019 $162 $200 $219 $581 (thru 3Q) 28.0% (thru 3Q)
Growth numbers during same time period:
Revs($M) Seq Rev Growth YOY Rev Growth TTM Rev($M) TTM YOY Rev Growth
1Q16 $15 2.8% 244.2% $50 760.3%
2Q16 $21 43.2% 161.7% $63 353.2%
3Q16 $28 32.5% 123.0% $79 196.2%
4Q16 $35 25.3% 144.4% $99 152.0%
1Q17 $48 37.5% 227.0% $133 166.3%
2Q17 $58 19.0% 171.7% $169 168.7%
3Q17 $73 26.0% 158.4% $214 172.4%
4Q17 $87 20.4% 148.3% $266 167.9%
1Q18 $90 3.0% 86.0% $308 131.5%
2Q18 $103 14.4% 78.8% $353 108.5%
3Q18 $118 14.6% 62.5% $398 86.3%
4Q18 $143 21.2% 63.6% $454 70.7%
1Q19 $162 13.3% 80.0% $526 71.0%
2Q19 $200 23.5% 94.2% $623 76.5%
3Q19 $219 9.5% 85.6% $724 81.7%
The increase in YOY rev growth for the past year came about from their partnership with Pfizer to help market/sell the Cologuard test.
Their TTM revs are $724M with a current run rate of $876M.
TTM P/S of 16.8 at over 80% growth for each of the past 3 quarters seems pretty attractively priced currently.
They also presented data on their blood based liver detection test that has achieved FDA breakthrough device designation. The agency’s Breakthrough Devices program expedites development, assessment, and review processes to provide patients and health care providers with timely access to new technologies.
http://investor.exactsciences.com/investor-relations/press-r…
They also completed their acquisition of Genomic Health on 11/8/19, making what they call the “leading global cancer diagnostics company” (not sure what metric they’re using for that).
http://investor.exactsciences.com/investor-relations/press-r…
They have a lot of good things going on, high growth, large market (of which they only have 5%), many other potential catalysts for continued growth, anyone else following or have any more analysis/comments?
