Fastly earnings

Top line 62% revenue growth, think this board will be happy with the gross margin movement!

Strong top-line growth with revenue of $75 million, up 62% year-over-year

Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate (DBNER) of 137%, up from 133% in Q1 20201

Net Retention Rate (NRR) of 138%, up from 130% in Q1 20202>

Total customer count increased to 1,951 up from 1,837 in Q1 2020 — the largest
quarterly growth since IPO

Total enterprise customer count of 304, up from 297 in Q1 2020

Average enterprise customer spend of approximately $716,000, up from
$642,000 in Q1 20203

Enterprise customers generated 88% of our trailing twelve-month total
revenue, consistent with Q1 2020

GAAP gross margin of 60.2%, up from 55.0% in Q2 2019; non-GAAP gross
margin, which excludes stock-based compensation, of 61.7% up from 55.6% in
Q2 2019

GAAP operating loss of $14 million, compared to GAAP operating loss of $12
million for Q2 2019; non-GAAP operating income of $2 million, up from nonGAAP operating loss of $9 million in Q2 2019

GAAP basic and diluted net loss per share of $0.14, up from GAAP basic and
diluted net loss per share of $0.26 in Q2 2019; non-GAAP basic and diluted
income per share of $0.02, up from non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per
share of $0.16 in Q2 20194

Adjusted EBITDA of $7 million, up from ($6) million for Q2 20194 — first
positive quarter

Capital expenditures of $3.1 million, or 4% of revenue5
Raised full-year 2020 guidance $290-300m up from $280-290m

39 Likes

> Strong top-line growth with revenue of $75 million, up 62% year-over-year
> Raised full-year 2020 guidance $290-300m up from $280-290m

Am I reading this right? Look at what the numbers have to be for the next 2 quarters to match the high end of guidance (Italics are projections):


Quarter	Revenue	 QoQ	 YoY 
Q4'18	40.8		
Q1'19	45.6	11.8%	
Q2'19	46.2	 1.3%	
Q3'19	49.8	 7.8%	
Q4'19	58.9	18.3%	44.4%
Q1'20	62.9	 6.8%	37.9%
**Q2'20	75.0	19.2%	62.3%	<-- this Q**
*Q3'20	79.1	 5.4%	34.2%	<-- 5.4% QoQ? Really?*
*Q4'20	83.0	 5.0%	32.0%*
**End FY20	300.0**			

I had to drop sequential growth a lot, and YoY growth to about half of what this quarter was, to make some sense of the progression.

If we think they could beat by just 10%, it starts to look more like this quarter, but still quite a bit below:

				
Quarter	Revenue	 QoQ	 YoY	
Q1'20	 62.9	 6.8%	37.9%	
**Q2'20	 75.0	19.2%	62.3%	<-- this Q**
*Q3'20	 89.3	19.0%	51.5%*
*Q4'20	102.9	15.3%	63.5%*
**End FY20	330.0**			

In both cases I modeled in declining growth It just felt more correct then dropping a lot more this next quarter. Also, the past was a bit lumpy so Q4 needs less growth to be consistent on a YoY basis, which is why I included the QoQ numbers to help make sense of it. In reality, they could grow QoQ the same in Q4 as Q3 and it would really make the Q4 YoY % impressive.

The point is, as revenue is usage-based we can equate it roughly to network traffic and so guidance implies the growth in traffic coming through this quarter is more likely to remain consistent going forward as opposed to continued massive growth. I guess we could look at this as new customers in the future will add traffic but the explosion at existing customers is built in now. Perhaps Management doesn’t want to assume the success of their customers, combined with new customers, will continue at the same rate in their own projections so they modeled in less? Regardless I think it is safe to assume we will get a few more quarters of >50% growth from Fastly’s current business model while we wait to see what Compute@Edge brings.

Thoughts?


Note I got this revenue data from a source that I have found to be reliable but not direct from the filings. Percentage calculations are my own. Source: http://www.rocketfinancial.com/Financials.aspx?fID=335043&am…

12 Likes

Hi Rafes,

Quarter	Revenue	 QoQ	 YoY 
Q4'18	40.8		
Q1'19	45.6	11.8%	
Q2'19	46.2	 1.3%	
Q3'19	49.8	 7.8%	
Q4'19	58.9	18.3%	44.4%
Q1'20	62.9	 6.8%	37.9%
Q2'20	75.0	19.2%	62.3%	<-- this Q
Q3'20	79.1	 5.4%	34.2%	<-- 5.4% QoQ? Really?
Q4'20	83.0	 5.0%	32.0%	
End FY20	300.0		

Looks like the YoY calculation is shifted by a row.
Q3 79.1/49.8 = 58.8%
Q4 83.0/58.9 = 40.9%

7 Likes

Thanks for spotting that! I was just coming back to double check that because they just said on the conference call Q&A that the mid-point in guidance represented around 50% Q3 YoY growth as well as adding that Q4 is their strongest Q. Here are the corrected rows with adjusted numbers to try and bend these comments in:


Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Growth	YoY Growth	
Q4'18	40.8			
Q1'19	45.6	11.8%		
Q2'19	46.2	 1.3%		
Q3'19	49.8	 7.8%		
Q4'19	58.9	18.3%	44.4%	
Q1'20	62.9	 6.8%	37.9%	
**Q2'20	75.0	19.2%	62.3%	<-- this Q**
*Q3'20	75.0	 0.0%	50.6%	<-- 0% QoQ is ~50% growth?*
*Q4'20	87.1	16.1%	47.8%	<-- I put the rest % here to get to 100*
**End FY20	300.0**		
				
Quarter	Revenue	QoQ Growth	YoY Growth	
Q4'19	58.9	18.3%	44.4%	
Q1'20	62.9	 6.8%	37.9%	
**Q2'20	75.0	19.2%	62.3%	<-- this Q**
*Q3'20	80.9	 7.8%	62.3%	<-- typed any QoQ % to get to 62.3% YoY*
*Q4'20	95.6	18.3%	62.3%	<-- typed any QoQ % to get to 62.3% YoY*
<i>_**End FY20	314.4**_</i>

I don’t know if anyone sees value in this exercise but if that first one is now correct then they really did guide to near 0% growth which is what Yahoo articles are already starting to call disappointing

4 Likes

“I put the rest % here to get to 100”
…should have been 300, as in the high end of the guidance, shown just below that. (my kingdom for an editing feature).

1 Like

If I add up the numbers for 2019, revenue is 200. Guided revenue for 2020 is 300. That’s a 50% YOY growth, unless I’m missing something…

Thanks for the info. You’re right essentially flat QoQ guidance but still ahead of Streets Q3 estimates (which, as we all know, is just a game analysts play). Being usage vs. subscription based is going to make Fastly’s QoQ revenue numbers bounce around. YoY may provide a clearer picture without the noise of quarterly fluctuations in use, especially given Fastly’s retail base. On the QoQ line, a more true measure may be QoQ Total Customer Count which grew from 1837 to 1951. I believe that would be the largest customer count growth we’ve seen since it went public. That’s been overshadowed given the TicTok revelation but still relevant. That said, I see it as a solid, not spectacular, quarter and lifting full year to $290-300M range was also a positive. Again, thanks your insights are appreciated.

"If I add up the numbers for 2019, revenue is 200. Guided revenue for 2020 is 300. That’s a 50% YOY growth, unless I’m missing something…

YoY is generally quarterly: a quarter over the same quarter the year before. When you add all the FY quarters together and compare it you are doing the a yearly revenue comparison. As far as I know the quarterly YoY is what is commonly used. Correct me if wrong of couse.

1 Like

Hi harryda,

“YoY may provide a clearer picture without the noise of quarterly fluctuations in use”

This would still be subject to quarterly swings but compare further in the past. If things are seasonal this may be just fine but this is not a normal year. Perhaps you were thinking about trailing twelve months (TTM)? Since this adds in the previous 4 quarters for each new quarter, it does have a smoothing effect. I dug deeper in to the data source I mentioned above and added all the data they have. They also have TTM growth % and they match my calculations here, FWIW (at least leading up to the March Q).


Quarter	Rev	 QoQ	 YoY	 TTM	 YoY TTM
Q1'18	32.5				
Q2'18	34.4	 5.8%			
Q3'18	36.8	 7.0%			
Q4'18	40.8	10.9%		144.5	
Q1'19	45.6	11.8%	40.3%	157.6	
Q2'19	46.2	 1.3%	34.3%	169.4	
Q3'19	49.8	 7.8%	35.3%	182.4	
Q4'19	58.9	18.3%	44.4%	200.5	38.8%
Q1'20	62.9	 6.8%	37.9%	217.8	38.2%
**Q2'20	75.0	19.2%	62.3%	246.6	45.6%  <- This Q**
Q3'20	75.0	 0.0%	50.6%	271.8	49.0%
Q4'20	87.1	16.1%	47.8%	300.0	49.6%
End FY20	300.0				

It is always nice to see growth accelerating.

2 Likes