Revisiting PagerDuty

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

A wild ride IPO with good numbers…

Last quarter highlights:

• Revenue: Total revenue was $37.3 million, up 49% year-over-year.
• Gross Margin: Non-GAAP gross margin was 85.7% compared to Non-GAAP gross margin of 84.7% in the first quarter of fiscal 2019.
• Operating Loss: Non-GAAP operating loss was $7.9 million, or 21.2% of revenue, compared to $3.8 million, or 15.3% of revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2019.
• Net Loss: Non-GAAP net loss per share was $0.22, compared to $0.16 in the first quarter of fiscal 2019.
• Free cash flow was negative $8.8 million, or 23.5% of revenue, compared to negative $4.7 million, or 18.8% of revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2019.

P/S: 26
Oomph: 1.87

Financials:


Revenue (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	17,107	18,585	20,915	23,023	79,630	
2019	25,020	27,744	31,229	33,870	117,863	48.01%
2020	37,314				
YOY	49.14%				
						
Adj Gross Profit (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	14,665	15,928	17,594	19,111	67,298	
2019	21,196	23,902	26,700	29,051	100,849	49.85%
2020	31,971				
YOY	50.84%					
				
				
Gross margin percent (Non-GAAP)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2018	85.73%	85.70%	84.12%	83.01%	84.51%	
2019	84.72%	86.15%	85.50%	85.77%	85.56%	
2020	85.68%	
						
						
Adj Operating Income(millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	-2,931	-5,050	-5,771	-6,382	-20,134	
2019	-3,836	-4,217	-5,775	-3,198	-17,026	-15.44%
2020	-7,917				
				
				
Operating Income % of Revenue (Non-GAAP)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2018	-17.13%	-27.17%	-27.59%	-27.72%	-17.08%	
2019	-15.33%	-15.20%	-18.49%	-9.44%	-45.63%	
2020	-21.22%	
						
						
Adj Net Income (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2019	-3,422				
2020	-7,252				
						
						
Net Income % of Revenue (Non-GAAP)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2019	-13.68%		
2020	-19.44%	
						
						
Adj EPS (USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2018					-0.43	
2019	-0.16				0.09	
2020	-0.22				-0.22	
						
						
Opr Cash Flow (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2019	-4,310				
2020	-$7,566				
						
						
Free Cash Flow (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2019	-4,692				45,673	
2020	-8,756				
						
						
Total customers (thousands)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	YOY	
2018	8,779	9,146	9,444	9,793		
2019	10,139	10,454	10,806	11,212	14.49%	
2020	11,680				
YOY	15.20%					
						
Enterprise Customers (>$100k)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	YOY	
2018	108	121	132	144		
2019	160	181	203	228	58.33%	
2020	242					
YOY	51.25%					
						
Dollar-based net expansion rate						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4		
2018	140%	138%	136%	134%		
2019	136%	138%	139%	140%		
2020	137%

Looking ahead to next earnings report…

🆁🅶🅱
If all my days were hills to climb and circles without reason
If all I was, was passing time, my life was just a season

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2

Numbers do look good but i have seen a few articles on insider selling. Seeing that worries me a bit,
Even tho considering PD being a new IPO and officers of the company trying to cash out some rewards makes some sense.

What is your opinion on the insider selling issue?

3

Numbers do look good but i have seen a few articles on insider selling. Seeing that worries me a bit,
Even tho considering PD being a new IPO and officers of the company trying to cash out some rewards makes some sense.

What is your opinion on the insider selling issue?

FBella,

Would you mind linking the article you reference?

Insiders are prohibited from selling for approximately 6 months from the IPO date. This is known as the lock-up expiration. PagerDuty has not been public yet for 6 months, so there cannot be any insider selling yet…

best,
Matt

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4

Hello Matt,
I don’t know how credible this source is but this is the link, hoping it works:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/did-pagerduty-inc-nyse-pd-…
Regards,
Bella

1 Like
5

This is an article written by robot.

The Co-Founder, Dan Solomon, made the biggest insider sale in the last 12 months. That single transaction was for US$7.6m worth of shares at a price of US$22.32 each. That means that an insider was selling shares at slightly below the current price (US$50.52). When an insider sells below the current price, it suggests that they considered that lower price to be fair.

PD ipo priced at $24 but traded $36 - $59.82. The co-founder sold shares at $22.32. So it must be before ipo. The article said it’s slightly below current price $50.52.:slight_smile:

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6

I was aware of the price it IPO’d at and the current price and was wondering how $22 could be considered slightly under $50.52 well $46.29 at the close on Friday but did not know the article was written by robots. :flushed:

1 Like
7

So this…?
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001568100/f8fe275…

🆁🅶🅱
If all my days were hills to climb and circles without reason
If all I was, was passing time, my life was just a season

1 Like
8

Ok. Now I get it.

Thanks for the link and the link the form 4.

Under the type of sale the Code is S-1, which below states that:

“Explanation of Responses:
(1) The Reporting Person sold shares to the underwriters in connection with the closing of the Issuer’s initial public offering. The reported sale price reflects the
price at which the Reporting Persons sold shares to the underwriters, which is net of underwriting commissions.”

In a nutshell, this is a non-event. The guy still has nearly 4 million shares!

Best,
Matt

2 Likes
9

I don’t know how credible this source is but this is the link, hoping it works:

It’s CRAP!

Go to the source, the SEC filing. It tells the story

Explanation of Responses:
(1) The Reporting Person sold shares to the underwriters in connection with the closing of the Issuer’s initial public offering. The reported sale price reflects the price at which the Reporting Persons sold shares to the underwriters, which is net of underwriting commissions.

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=133…

Denny Schlesinger

4 Likes