I hear you… but the time to be concerned was 4 to 6 weeks ago! I was negative (short calls of $PLTR, $TSLA and went neutral on $NVDA by converting my shares to $100 covered call, not buying during deepseek sell-off and let half of the covered call go In Feb, and 40% of the remaining will go away March…)
Having said that, few points to consider:
Unlike dot.com, the customers of $NVDA are hyper scalers, who are talking about $50, $60, $80, 100 B cap-ex. Both $NVDA and its customers are making tons and tons of profit, to the tune of $50, $100 B each.
The commercial real estate (medical offices, hotels, industrial storage) is okay except office space and multifamily. Except few smaller and regional banks, the banking system as a whole is adequately written off or the loans are very low % of their loan book. I have gone through (BAC, C, JPM, WFC) and (TFC, PNC, USB, KEY). Banks have really de-risked and the impact of systemic issue is very low. Office space is not housing crisis by any stretch. By the way you can throw in multi-family into the problem loans, because most of it is financed with < 3% and the refinance is going to be at 7%, so either the owners have to bring in equity or mail the keys. We need to see how it plays out.
Not all retail’s are doing bad, some are. However, consumer is the engine of USA and their confidence is being tested on daily headline about layoffs, and tariff news. It is a potential area to watch out.
I am planning to raise cash on rallies from some names.
Now having said all of this,there are areas where opportunity exists. One has to be prepared that’s all. From my own portfolio, buying $AES post earnings was almost a slam-dunk call. Even today, I think over a 1 to 2 year period, buying at current price will give you 6% yield and another 25% stock price appreciation potential with low opportunity to go down from here. If you want to get back and start buying, you need to be prepared.
Different folks have different risk tolerance and different goals. While on one hand I am cautious, but I am also trying to see when can I get back in some names.