Market thoughts

I was listening to the talking heads on options actions and thought this was interesting:

  • SP still above historical PE, so not a bargin yet

  • once a market goes down 5%, it usually accelerates: Median decline 8.25%, average decline = 12.5% and we are only down 7.6% so we may have some way to go.

  • there will be some margin calls and “de-risking”.

  • in the past when the vix has moved as much as it has, then the market has done well later, but it was a result of major moves by the Fed (do they have anything left in the barrel, I doubt it).
    One Month VIX performance
    8/1990 = 100%
    8/1998 = 78%
    9/2008 = 90%
    (Hmmm, all in August and September)
    A year out, the markets were up 22.6%, 38% and -9.4% respectively.

  • expect Financials to get whacked - buy a put spread in the XLF. (I did buy the 43/40 put spread in tech XLK when they suggested and it is maxed out so I might close that out and buy the XLK spread they suggested).

— so maybe don’t catch too many falling knives at the moment.