VDA President Hildegard Müller said up to 225,000 jobs could be lost by 2035 — around 35,000 more than earlier forecast
There will always be a demand for high-end Mercedes & BMWs. Volswagens-not so much as China auto invasion continues.
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BMW and Mercedes are both trying hard at least. The upcoming iX3 is a great car by all accounts, for example. 800V, 434 mile range, very stylish and a fantastic driving experience. MB isn’t slouching either. (and Volvo is launching a similar car this year too). VW confuses me. I was really wanting an ID.Buzz for example, until it actually shipped and the range was terrible. The ID.4 is a great car too, but a bit small and low on range again. I just don’t know how VW managed to miss the mark that badly. I’m not sure if they are making a serious effort to change any of this.
Domestically GM is doing the best, with 5 Cadillacs (!) and 5-6 between Chevy and GMC. But I don’t know if they are making any serious progress on either 800V or on the 400-mile range yardstick. Ford came out with 2 good options and then… just… stalled… and it has put them into a bad situation. Chrysler, well, their customer base is EV hostile.
Here’s the thing though. All these manufacturers have seen the writing on the wall for many years now and failed to react. Especially the domestic manufacturers in the US.
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Volvo is Chinese owned.
I watch a lot of auto tech YouTube’s.
One fella Car Ninja works almost exclusively on German vehicle. I was surprised at the amount of plastic parts that are in a BMW engine. CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP. Following the path of US automakers ain’t a path of greatness & reliability. Eventually BMW reputation & sales will suffer.
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But they did react, spending tens of billions of dollars – a lot of which they have had to write off because of lower demand.
Major Automakers Have Written Off $55 Billion After Overestimating EV Demand
https://www.autoblog.com/news/major-automakers-have-written-off-55-billion-after-overestimating-ev-demand
DB2
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And don’t forget too big to fail. Govt bailed them out last time. Biggest threat is foreign brands made in U.S. w US labor. That implies big loss in market share for GM& Ford. Stellantis seems to be struggling and will sell made in China autos in Europe. That might happen in the U.S. too, but more likely when assembled in U.S.
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Less employees and selling off factories go hand in hand.
in Austria runs out of capacity. The company’s exports hit a record 6,006 vehicles in April, up 62% year-over-year.
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Frankly, I would have to say the future of all automobile manufacturers is not good unless they’re Chinese.
But then governments may intervene because … jobs. But otherwise, I’ve not seen such club footed management of all of them since, uh, forever.
Many be the Koreans will be OK, but the rest? German, Japanese, American, Italian, British, et al? Toast.
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Tariffs may very well protect domestic auto production. But consumers must be willing to pay the price. $80k new vehicles might be prohibitive for many. New cars become a luxury. Used cars will become more valuable.
How will markets adjust? More taking public transportation. Carpooling? Motorcycles.
All will stress number of vehicles sold. Tempting to trim tariffs to reach a compromise. Allow some low cost Chinese models.
And yet ev sales have risen globally since February, the date of your article: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/global-ev-demand-rises-second-month-data-shows-2026-05-12/
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I don’t know the European and Asian situations about investments and write-offs. I was responding to what bjurasz wrote about failure to react, ‘especially the domestic manufacturers in the US’, which is not the case. They invested tens of billions of dollars and had to write-off a lot (not all) of it.
DB2
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I would argue with “had to”. In fact I am pretty sure the day will come when they regret that. Most of the world is heading towards electrics, and the incumbents are misjudging, misallocating, and misunderstanding the trend. Innovator’s Dilemma and all.
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I am guessing that the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit, rollback of NEVI (the ev infrastructure program), and the mandate against the use of ev’s in the federal fleet had more than a little to do with the slumping ev sales in the U.S. this year.
I think I can be as overly political as I want in this case, because the destruction of the ev rollout by this administration has clear long term macroeconomic implications.
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Of course they didn’t “have to”, but their goal is make a profit. GM has a plant in Tonawanda that they spent hundreds of millions on in order to make EV engines. The volume did not develop and the factory had a lot of idle time. Not a productive use of resources. Last June they bit the bullet and wrote off the $300 million.
It hard to make the case that GM ‘failed to react’ to EV technology after spending billions of dollars. Also note they are still making EVs, just at a rate that is more suited to the US market.
True enough. Getting someone else to pay for part of your vehicle purchase is always schweet. At the same time, the slowdown in EV growth proceeded the current administration. As an example, in California EVs as a percent of sales plateaued back in 2023.
DB2
True enough. Letting gas vehicles belch noxious gases into my breathing space was wonderful for gas car manufacturers and oil companies.
But I guess that doesn’t count?
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I think it’s obvious that they were blinded by Tesla’s fat margins and decided to jump in the pool with investments that were not justified by the situation. Korean automakers have taken a more measured approach, have several EV models which are quite nice, and haven’t had to write off any investments at all. This is more stupid American management, but I’m sure they’ll be rewarded with hundreds of millions in compensation because, uh, ???
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IIRC, most were predicting that s-shaped adoption curve that would keep growing strongly for years. And yet it’s clear that California’s EV mandate for 2026 at 35% of new car sales (which doesn’t exist at present) would not have been met.
DB2
Stolen from another thread…
What’s more, the slow-burning demand for many Western electric vehicles has left manufacturers exposed, with some plants, of which many have been re-tooled and refreshed at great expense, currently operating at a fraction of their capacity. “In the short-term, European carmakers need to optimize their factories…"
DB2
NEVI was aimed at providing infrastructure for Ev’s. Like we already do for gas guzzlers.
Europe ev sales are up 27% yoy. U.S. ev sales are down 25% yoy. I guess we are forward thinking if total dependence on oil and maximum acceleration of climate change is our long term goal.
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Actually used ev sales in California are up 20%, and total ev ownership is still on the rise in California.
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Total EV ownership is bound to continue up for quite a while. That’s because nearly all the cars being taken out of service are ICE cars. Mostly they’re old, past the cheap repair stage, and they’re crushed. Even if only a few percent of new cars are EVs, the percent of total EVs on the road is going to continue to go up for quite a few years.
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