This would seem to come under the category of ‘you can’t get there from here’.
Germany has set aside more than €260 billion ($275 billion) to deal with the immediate risks of an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine, but the ultimate fix will be much costlier — if the country can pull it off at all.
The pending price tag for future-proofing the country’s energy system is projected to amount to over $1 trillion by 2030, according to BloombergNEF. The costs include investments in upgrading power grids and above all new generation to manage the phase out of nuclear and coal plants, handle increased demand from electric cars and heating systems, and meet climate commitments.
The transition will require the installation of solar panels covering the equivalent of 43 soccer fields and 1,600 heat pumps every day. It also needs 27 new onshore and four offshore wind plants to be built per week…
Ok, but Germany had planned to phase out coal and nuclear from long before the Ukraine war. Short term lng terminals should provide their needs replacing Russian gas but at higher cost.
Natural gas is cleaner than coal but still a fossil fuel. Its use was and is a bridge while green sources are built. This not new. And has been a narrow path to follow from the decision to shut down nuclear.
Electric vehicles may not have been anticipated in the earlier plan but even they could have been foreseen by think tanks. And note that green gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel probably from fermentation ethanol is being considered. Electric or hydrogen may not be the only solutions to green energy.
Since shutting down the last nuclear power plants, Germany has become a net importer of electricity. Until recently, Germany has usually been a power exporter. That situation has changed, based on the last few months.
Link below shows the net import balance for Germany for each month of this year. A negative number indicates net export, positive is net import. The nuclear shut down occurred in April.
Germany Electricity Import Balance
Jan -3714 GWh
Feb -3004
Mar -2290
Apr +122
May +3052
Jun +1172
We are only a week into June, so the number for this month will likely grow. Looking at the power generation in more detail, not only is nuclear shut down, but generation from the coal-fired power plants is also down about 20% compared to last year.
The link below shows the generation sources in detail, and the total load demand for this month. You can see the sum of generation is less than the black load demand bar.
Why would that be a surprise? Especially to Germans. They specifically gave the “Greens” a hefty portion of their vote, so obviously this is what they want. Maybe next election they’ll change their minds, but for now this is what they chose.
I remain skeptical.
"The transition will require the installation of solar panels covering the equivalent of 43 soccer fields and 1,600 heat pumps every day. It also needs 27 new onshore and four offshore wind plants to be built per week …
“To put the scale of the challenge in context, the required generation is enough to cover current household demand for all 448 million people in the European Union.”
In recent years, Germany has built solar PV, but the rate of wind power construction has significantly slowed from last decade.
In 2022, the Germans added 2.46 GW of new wind power capacity (combined on- and off-shore, most of it onshore.) Given the capacity factors for wind power in Germany, this new wind power will produce about 5 TWh per year. But last year, the coal-fired power plants in Germany generated 167 TWh. Wind power will obviously take a long time to replace coal. That doesn’t even address the intermittency problem of the popular renewables.
In 2022, they also added 7.3 GW of new solar. This is more than wind, but the capacity factor for solar is only 11% in Germany! At that CF, the new 2022 solar capacity will generate about 7.0 TWh/yr. This is also somewhat less than the 250 TWh that fossil fuels produced in 2022.
Angela Merkel and the Greens could have decided to keep nuclear and instead phase out coal. But they decided it was more important to keep burning millions of tons of coal. At the same time, the skeptical members of the public are supposed to accept the narrative that the rising CO2 air concentration is an existential crisis.
I wish people did basic math, “the rate”. That means if you have 1% and a year later you have 3% of the market being alternatives the rate is 200%. When you have 50% of the market as alternatives and it goes to 52% the following year the rate has fallen to 4% growth.
The fact remains that NG has fallen like a rock even though Germany gets much less or none from Russia.
The debate is make believe stuff. I get you have your usage facts, but you are not covering up for 50% of Germany’s energy needs are met by alternative energies. You do not have anything. The fossil fuel guys are out to lunch.
" The transition will require the installation of solar panels covering the equivalent of 43 soccer fields and 1,600 heat pumps every day. It also needs 27 new onshore and four offshore wind plants to be built per week…"
The headline is wrong there is no German power gap. Whatever that is supposed to be Germany has its energy needs met now.
“The pending price tag for future-proofing the country’s energy system is projected to amount to over $1 trillion by 2030,” Bloomberg from OP link
The $1 tr in spending by 2030 is doable for Germany.
Overall, renewables will have produced 46 percent of German power consumption in 2022 (up from 41% in 2021), UBA forecast. Germany saw the highest renewables share in electricity use to date in 2020 at 45.2 percent.Dec 12, 2022
Bob stop always thinking you know alternative energy will fail when you have not even done any simple google searches on the angles you are talking.
Even ignoring the necessary solar panels, heat pumps and onshore wind turbines, you really think that Germany is going to build four offshore wind plants every week for the rest of the decade?
You are allowing the wrong source to do the the math again. Why would Germany need to have energy for 448 million people in Europe? That is not in question but you are leading that way because you are reading it and quoting it. You keep hammering on it. You were setup to think it was an issue by someone inept.
They don’t. That was just something to give an indication of the scale of the goals. What the article said is that because of the increases in electrification, population and the economy, the amount of electricity German industry and consumers will need is the same magnitude as present consumer demand for all of Europe.
The Bloomberg article discusses what new generation Germany needs to achieve the goal it has set for itself.
“The costs include investments in upgrading power grids and above all new generation to manage the phase out of nuclear and coal plants, handle increased demand from electric cars and heating systems, and meet climate commitments.”
“This is a bold undertaking — possibly the boldest project since the reconstruction of Germany,” Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, who oversees climate and energy policy, said earlier this month.
“Around 250 gigawatts of new capacity will have to be installed by 2030 — when power demand is expected to be about a third higher than it is now — according to estimates from Germany’s network regulator and think tank Agora Energiewende.”
Now for some oversimplified math. If 200 GW of that 250 GW is needed from offshore wind turbines and those turbines were 15 MW each, then…
(200 x 1000)/15 = 13,333 new offshore turbines
It is just not going to happen in the next seven years, if at all.
You asked me what today or yesterday for a quote of you saying alternative energy wont happen? LOL Then you say it again. Yet we are discussing 50% of Germany’s current needs for energy are met by alternatives as of now.
We need some integrity in these posts of yours Bob.
That isn’t what I said. What is not going to happen is that the Germans will build thousands of offshore wind turbines in the next seven years.
To repeat the earlier question, do you think that Germany will achieve those “four offshore wind plants to be built per week” for the rest of the decade?
More or less. Agora Energiewende estimates that German power demand will be a third higher to 750 TWh. Household/consumer consumption for all of the EU was just under 750 TWh in 2021
RWE is one of the largest electric utilities in Germany. The CEO, Markus Krebber, was recently interviewed by Bild.
(English translation through Google)
Headline: Electricity will soon be scarce in Germany
The boss of the energy company fears that electricity will be scarce in Germany in the medium term! That drives companies and jobs out of the country.
“Germany’s prosperity is based on strong industry,” Krebber told BILD: "A scarce energy supply leads to high prices - this endangers the competitiveness of Germany as an industrial location. We are seeing the first signs of de-industrialization.”
And in “Focus”, the RWE boss made it clear: “As an industrial location, Germany has a serious problem: We don’t have as much energy available as we need.”
“This gap leads to high prices and thus to justified concerns about competitiveness,” Krebber continues.
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Germany continues to import more electricity than it produces at home. In order to support the intermittent renewables, they will need to burn more natural gas in dispatchable power plants. That gas will likely be imported as well. In the short term, Germany will just import power from the nuclear plants in France, as well as other types of power plants in Europe.