Germany's Green Energy Hypocrisy

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
21

The nuclear would basically be a 24 hour every day supply.
Any info on the consistency of the renewables supply? Is this a capability or an average?

Germany’s climate in northern Europe is such that it doesn’t get much sunshine as, say, Spain or Greece. Also, Germany doesn’t get as much wind as the US Midwest. The off-shore wind farms in the North Sea do get more wind and perform better than the onshore installations. Offshore wind, however, is quite expensive. Offshore wind turbines need to be installed in the open sea and the cables laid to get the power onshore.

Looking at the electricity generation for 2021, I calculate the following capacity factors for Germany’s solar, wind (both offshore and onshore), plus nuclear.

Germany full year capacity factors
Solar: 10%
Offshore wind: 35%
Onshore wind: 18%
Wind (combined): 20%
Nuclear (2021): 92%

https://energy-charts.info/charts/installed_power/chart.htm?..

https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&…

Here is an example of how the above calculations are made…
For solar, the installed capacity at the end of 2020 was 54.07 Gigawatts (GW)
During 2021, solar produced 49,000 GWh of electricity
The Capacity Factor is therefore…
49,000 / (54.07 x 24 x 365) = 10.3%

A 10% capacity factor is pretty horrible. In the US, the average solar capacity factor is about 25% for PV systems. Thermal solar is a bit less.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph…

Germany’s onshore wind capacity factor of 18% is also unimpressive. In the US, average wind capacity factor is about 35%. The US doesn’t have much offshore wind installed. Germany’s offshore wind has about the same capacity factor as the US onshore wind.

Germany’s nuclear capacity factor of 92% compares well with the US average of 92.7% for 2021. Nuclear is best for 24/7 baseload power. Wind and solar are intermittent, so cannot be used for baseload, nor are they very good for dispatchable, controllable power.

  • Pete
5 Likes
22

In 2010 nuclear generated: 140 TW-hrs
…
In 2023 renewables will generate: 275 TW-hrs

It would be interesting to also see these figures as a percent of the total power generation.

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Total electrical generation in 2010 was 539 TW-hrs, nuclear (140 TW-hrs) generated 26%.

Total electrical generation in 2011 was 523 TW-hrs, nuclear (102 TW-hrs) generated 20%.

Total electrical generation in 2021 was 492 TW-hrs, nuclear (65 TW-hrs) generated 13%.

In 2022 through 7/17/2022:

Renewables 145 TW-hrs / 271 TW-hrs = 54%
Nuclear 17 TW-hrs / 271 TW=hrs = 6%

https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&…

Jaak

1 Like
23

Except that their goal is net zero emissions. By switching off nuclear electricity generation the Germans are making their goal that much harder to achieve.
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That is a silly comment. The Germans never planed on nuclear for meeting their goal of net zero emissions.

Whatever their plans, closing their nuclear plants makes it harder for them to reach net zero emissions.

DB2

5 Likes
24

Whatever their plans, closing their nuclear plants makes it harder for them to reach net zero emissions.

DB2

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With their big push to get off Russian natural gas, Germany will accelerate the wind, solar, biomass, hydro and other renewables to reach net zero emissions sooner than previously planned.

Jaak

25

Whatever their plans, closing their nuclear plants makes it harder for them to reach net zero emissions.
—
With their big push to get off Russian natural gas, Germany will accelerate the wind, solar, biomass, hydro and other renewables to reach net zero emissions sooner than previously planned.

Could be. But whatever their plans, closing their nuclear plants makes it harder for them to reach net zero emissions.

DB2

3 Likes
26

Thanks Waterfall (Pete) for the detailed reply.

From a distance, it seems German emotion is overwhelming German logic and intelligence. Or is it just being hard-headed and unwilling to change their minds because of losing “face”?

Cannot shut-down nuclear plant be restarted? Can’t all options be on the table to combat the cut-off of Russian natural gas?

An Irish friend with advanced degrees in the study of human nature once told me that the pain of not-changing must often exceed the pain of changing to force change. Change is difficult for humans.

Maybe we’re seeing a case study.

1 Like
27

An Irish friend with advanced degrees in the study of human nature once told me that the pain of not-changing must often exceed the pain of changing to force change. Change is difficult for humans.

Unless the pain is decreased by the change. Makes sense.

It seems to be related to utilitarianism.

Jeremy Bentham
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Bentham#Work
Bentham today is considered as the “Father of Utilitarianism”…This philosophy of utilitarianism took for its “fundamental axiom” to be the notion that it is the greatest happiness of the greatest number that is the measure of right and wrong.

DB2

28

Cannot shut-down nuclear plant be restarted?

It depends on the particulars of each plant. The Japanese still plan on restarting several nuclear plants that were shut down following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. But those plants have been kept in good condition, and even upgraded in some respects (better protection against tsunami, for instance). So many of those plants can, and hopefully will, be restarted.

But if the intention is to permanently shut down, that makes restart more difficult. Maintenance is not performed to keep the equipment in operable condition. For nuclear facilities, there is also the problem of safety equipment losing its quality assurance designation. Once the QA documentation is lost, it would need to be re-qualified, which is not an easy or quick process. For Germany, I tend to think the plants that have been shut down, will remain shut down.

The political will is not there to keep nuclear power in Germany.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/scholz-rejects-nuclear-…

From the link…
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out an extension of the runtime of the country’s three remaining nuclear plants as a way to stabilise the energy system amid an unprecedented supply crisis. During question time in parliament, the Social Democrat (SPD) said his government had assessed the options for extending the runtime beyond the scheduled exit date at the end of 2022 “without any ideology” and come to the conclusion that a longer use of nuclear is not practicable from a technical perspective and would do little to bolster the country’s energy system.

The Greens are a major political force in Germany, and they have always been wildly anti-nuclear. If Scholz has ruled out keeping the operable plants running, he certainly doesn’t want any shut down plants restarted.

For the electric power sector, the obvious solution is to burn more coal. The Greens hate nuclear power so much, they would rather burn the dirtiest lignite than to let even one nuclear plant operate. Carbon Dioxide is of little concern to those people, which is why they are increasing coal use.

  • Pete
6 Likes
29

With their big push to get off Russian natural gas, Germany will accelerate the wind, solar, biomass, hydro and other renewables to reach net zero emissions sooner than previously planned.

Could be. But whatever their plans, closing their nuclear plants makes it harder for them to reach net zero emissions.

DB2

Oh good, so Trudeau doesn’t have to embarrass us by sending that pump back after all … the vast majority of Canadians polled prefer we not be seen as sanction busters. }};-@

Anymouse … that includes me.

Of course experience with such predictions in the past is that that they failed to materialize?

1 Like
30

So I am still right that renewables generate more electricity than nuclear - even when you move the date back to 2010. By the way - it is impossible to generate 140 TW-hrs in 2011 with eight German nuclear power reactors were permanently shut down on 6 August 2011, following the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

But if they had kept the nuclear AND installed the renewables they would not have nearly as much need for NG from Russia and possibly helped to avert the Russian invasion.
What is the cost for that?

Mike

5 Likes
31

For the electric power sector, the obvious solution is to burn more coal. The Greens hate nuclear power so much, they would rather burn the dirtiest lignite than to let even one nuclear plant operate. Carbon Dioxide is of little concern to those people, which is why they are increasing coal use.

  • Pete

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The Greens are elected by the German people because they wanted nuclear plants shutdownin . The other German parties in power were also elected by the German people and they are not backing nuclear.

QAll the comments being made that the politicians forced the closure of nuclear power plants in Germany is BS. The people elected the politicians who said they would shutdown nuclear plants.

Contrary to your opinion, the Germans have a lot of concern about CO2 emissions. The Germans have been busy reducing CO2 emissions for many years. German total CO2 emissions are down in the same area as Canada total CO2 emissions even though Canada claims 80% clean electricity with hydro and nuclear. You could say Canadians are not doing enough to cleanup their fossil fuels industry.

The Ukrainian war has put a wrench into German plans. They are now revising their need for Russian natural gas for industrial and home heating as rapidly as possible. It take some time to switch out natural gas for renewable energies, but with the new urgency Germany will do OK in a year or two.

Jaak

1 Like
32

But if they had kept the nuclear AND installed the renewables they would not have nearly as much need for NG from Russia and possibly helped to avert the Russian invasion.

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Ridicoulous. You can the same for the other EU countries that imported Russian gaas, oil and coal. Putin would have still invaded Ukraine because he is a madman.

Jaak

33

Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.

…

But if they had kept the nuclear AND installed the renewables they would not have nearly as much need for NG from Russia and possibly helped to avert the Russian invasion.
What is the cost for that?

Mike

Amazing how hard it is for him to “get” that isn’t it? Obtuse comes to mind.

Then there is the possibility the Putin may not turn the gas back on? Germany did send a whole bunch of those really nasty 155mm Panzerhaubitze 2000s that are I’m sure providing grief for the Russian invaders?

Tim

3 Likes
34

An Irish friend with advanced degrees in the study of human nature once told me that the pain of not-changing must often exceed the pain of changing to force change. Change is difficult for humans.
—
Unless the pain is decreased by the change.

On a larger than individual scale it also helps if the change is profitable (decreased pain).

GE Shelves Wind Turbine Blade Plant. Renewable Energy Has Been a Tough Go.
www.marketwatch.com/articles/ge-wind-turbine-blade-plant-ren…
General Electric is scrapping plans for a wind turbine blade plant in the U.K…The factory, slated for the Teesside area in northeast Britain, would have produced wind turbine blades. A GE offshore wind turbine blade can be 107 meters, or 351 feet, long…

“While we are not moving forward with plans for a Teesside facility due to lack of volume, we remain committed to supporting the growth of U.K. offshore wind…”

Still, the renewable power business has been tough for GE. The company has reported an operating loss in its renewable power division for 14 consecutive quarters. Losses grew in this year’s first quarter year compared with last year’s fourth quarter as inflation started to raise costs and hurt profit margins on older contracts…

DB2
Profits were last seen in 2018

2 Likes
35

An Irish friend with advanced degrees in the study of human nature once told me that the pain of not-changing must often exceed the pain of changing to force change. Change is difficult for humans.

In The Gorilla Game Geoffrey Moore calls it “Switching costs.” A Gorilla stock has high switching costs.

The Captain

36

Wind turbine blades are not GE expertise. GE does much better with manufacturing the nacelle. But other wind power manufacturers are making money.

The wind turbine nacelle market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 6.1%, to USD 8.67 billion by 2026 as compared to USD 6.30 billion in 2020. With the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the market witnessed no major negative impact, with increased wind power capacity globally.

The wind turbine nacelle market is moderately fragmented. Some of the major companies operating in the market include Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A., Vestas Wind Systems A/S, General Electric Company, Suzlon Energy Limited, and Nordex SE.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/23/235726…

Jaak

37

Wind turbine blades are not GE expertise. GE does much better with manufacturing the nacelle.

At the same time the article reports that “The company has reported an operating loss in its renewable power division for 14 consecutive quarters.”

But other wind power manufacturers are making money.

Former Siemens Gamesa insider says turbine manufacturers are in dire need of the bright future they were promised

www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1791224/opinion-distributio…
In signing off from Siemens Gamesa after three years that might diplomatically be described as ‘eventful’, I wrote to colleagues that: “I suspect it will get worse before it gets better, but it will get better”. One of the first responses I received was very instructive: “When I joined more than 15 years ago, I was told that I was joining the sector with the brightest and most promising future. The problem is that it is a future that seems never to come.”

It is fair to say that that sums up much of the prevailing mood in the wind turbine OEM sector right now with all the major western OEMs struggling to turn a profit. It is not unusual to hear senior industry figures raising the spectre of the fate of the European solar manufacturing industry, long ago lost to the east…

Logic dictates that this is the moment to press down hard on the accelerator, designing the technology and building out the capacity required to quadruple installations between now and 2030. Instead the news is full of stories of lay-offs, factory closures and eye-watering financial losses. And the resources required for the necessary investments are in jeopardy.

DB2

1 Like
38

Former Siemens Gamesa insider says turbine manufacturers are in dire need of the bright future they were promised

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Russia has just opened the big new bright future for wind turbines all over Europe and Turkey.

Jaak

39

Amazing how hard it is for him to “get” that isn’t it? Obtuse comes to mind.

HE likes to pretend that the electric market consists of only renewables and nuclear. But it is really, renewables, nuclear and fossil fuels. If you shut off nuclear the others go up.
The day after a nuclear plant is shut down the use of fossil fuels will go up…because you installing renewables takes time.
Germany has backed itself into a corner…probably, sort of, planned/designed by the madman in Russia.

Mike

7 Likes
40

The day after a nuclear plant is shut down the use of fossil fuels will go up…because you installing renewables takes time.
Germany has backed itself into a corner…
Mike

An added problem is that Germany isn’t building enough renewables to replace the lost generation from their nuclear plants.

https://energy-charts.info/charts/installed_power/chart.htm?..

Germany hasn’t added any new offshore wind capacity since 2020, and only about 2.5 GW of onshore wind. They have built about 8 GW of new solar since 2020, but with the solar capacity factor at 10%, they need to build a large amount of capacity to get a relatively small number of megawatt-hours of actual generation. As mentioned in another post, the 20% capacity factor for wind isn’t all that impressive either.

Germans pay some of the highest electric power rates in Europe. The low capacity factors for the intermittent renewables is a big reason why. The German public is starting to push back at their constantly increasing energy bills. Now, Russia appears to be shutting down the natural gas supply even more. There could be a backlash on the way… We shall see.

  • Pete
3 Likes