GLBE - conviction update

I don’t know what to tell you.

This is very reminiscient of my ESTC call that never quite panned out.

I think the difference here is that you have inflation, post-covid supply chain challenges, and global war potentially affecting Europe economy and in general lurching us towards a possible recession. In that environment, well - maybe not the best time to bet on global ecommerce.

However, I think the fact that SMBs get slaughtered in tough economies is affecting SHOP, and GLBE falling in sympathy with SHOP mostly.

Ironically, GLBE will also get growth boosts due to SHOP integration this year (at least, that is expectation).

So I am barely staying respectable YTD because I keep buying low (or lower) and selling trading blocks on way back up. Frustrating to just not buy at the bottom, of course.

I think they will be fine long-term, but nothing will surprise me short-term in this environment.
So implement the BAYOR protocol everyone: Buy At Your Own Risk.

All I am doing at this point is hoping for a bounce, and I will pare quite a bit prior to ER, because I think all ER’s will be dangerous coming up. Sure, some folks like DDOG may continue to churn some good numbers, but I think we have a few surprises too. Maybe not quite as bad as NFLX miss, but more in vague “concern” on economy or using macro factors to justify lighter forecasts, etc etc…

Feel bad if you followed me into the GLBE rabbit hole, but irony is I made a crap-ton off of it in late 2021, with a couple trades of buying at $50-ish and selling at $65-ish. Imagine even $40 right now…almost a 50% gain! That is where my head is at, usually with asking a question:

  1. what is the highest I can reasonably expect, with a high-liklihood imo, that GLBE will reach AT SOME POINT in 2022, from here? Can I see $40 again? Sure. So that is 50% from here.

Unfortunately, we could go to $19 before that. Who knows.
On plus side, there isn’t exactly a lot of fluff left in the price, as we are close to IPO low. We are also currently at 3/14 low, so if that winds up being support, maybe good adds here. Dunno.


1 Like