GLBE Q1 22 ER…

Some good numbers, but ultimately they reduced FY guidance due to macro. So the mixed bag I was concerned may be coming, and validates me selling out of all but a token amount last week.

I think long-term this is still good. Just a matter of how much you think they can get beaten down.
Near all-time low in $15’s as I type.


Mgmt was solid.
Thesis not changed. Just impact of Ukraine war.

Still hard to know what “good valuations” are in this market, but all indications are this is a 50%+ grower (their guidance implies closer to 70% at high end).

Like SPG, they seem focused more on the elite/luxury brands, which are likely a bit more recession-proof.

Conversely, they acquired Flow to catch “everyone else” and while that will take a bit to ramp, the original pilot with Shopify has ended in April and is now general availability (GA) for the larger Shopify clients.

So they have organic growth, net retention rate continues at 130+, and they have new rev stream with shopify and then with flow/shopify.

I bought some in AH.
No idea if it can get lower than the upper 13’s or not.

I believe the current 25% off price gets them to $2.25b mkt cap. Their TTM rev is something like $260m? So under 10 P/S already. New high end of guidance is still in low $400s, so a forward P/S of 5.6?

Seems sufficiently cheap, at least for a longer-term play of 12-18-24 months. They can stay under $30 and be a 100% gain over that period…which is nuts compared to their earlier prices. Yeah, I know that is price anchoring, which is why I look at their actual valuation now and forward also.