Global-e Online Q4 2022 results

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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It felt for a long while that there were only a couple of interested parties in this company but increasingly I’m noticing it featuring in portfolios on Saul’s board so here’s the wrap for the year for those that are following, (spoiler alert - there’s a happy ending with a beat and beat and guidance is also above for next Qtr/Yr)…

  • Global-E Online Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.18 beats by $0.11.

  • Revenue of $139.86M (+69.1% Y/Y) beats by $1.16M.

  • GMV in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $839 million, an increase of 66% year over year

  • Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $21.8 million compared to $11.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2021

  • Q1 Outlook: Revenue of $108M - $114M vs. consensus of $111.88M; GMV of $645M - $675M; Adjusted EBITDA of $9.5M - $12.5M.

  • FY 2022 Outlook: Revenue of $557M - $584M vs. consensus of $558.89M; GMV of $3,360M - $3,520M; Adjusted EBITDA of $66M - $74M.

Guidance translates into 45% growth for Q1 and 40% growth for full year 2023, which incorporates a slow down in growth expectations together with the lapping of 2 prior year acquisitions in a Q1 and Q3 step down.

As a reminder Global-e made 2 acquisitions last year - Flow and Borderfree. Flow closed Jan 1st 2022 which added ~5% to revenues so Q1 onwards will start to lap those compares. Borderfree added 10% of total revenues from its close in July 1st 2022 and so will start to lap those in second half of the year in 2023.

Revenue growth certainly held up well and the caution on expectations of any further progress on GM proved conservative as GM improved to 41.3% up from 39.9% in the previous sequential quarter as adjusted Ebitda smashed through the top of the prior guidance range and expectations.

Growth accelerated to 69% from the 54.4% a year earlier and the 67% for the full year of 2022 even if down from the 79% recorded in Q3 and higher margin service fees rose from 43% of total revenues to 45% (YoY).

Geo expansion (from its UK/European origins) was significant with both US outbound as well as Asia/MEA businesses recording remarkable growth of 163% increase in the case of the US outbound and an 8x increase in Asia/MEA business.

Significant traction in the Shopify partnership was evidenced and a new 3 year extension to their partnership with DHL struck - de-risking the fulfilment business model in the short term.

Report:

Looking forward to the earnings call and accompanying presentation.

Ant

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Transcript now available here:

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Ant,

It’s a little hard to take their guidance seriously as they had to LOWER their full-year GMV and revenue guides twice each last year.

Revenue:
initial FY guide: 411 - 421m
Q1 update: 383 - 403m
Q2 update: 406 - 426m
Q3 update: 404.7 - 410.7m

They ended the year with 409m. Not exactly under-promising and over-delivering. Maybe they’ll hit their 45% growth target this coming year…but do you want to bet on it?

Bear

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Good point Bear, leaving aside it is one of the most profitable holdings I have in my portfolio alongside Shopify, TTD and Pure Storage, I guess ending up at 409 from a starting point of 411-421 isn’t the worst transgression around.

Also they had a couple of acquisitions to factor in which may have been hard to predict as well as being held hostage to Shopify implementation which was pushed back 2 quarters as we know.

Overall their growth now is top tier. I’m happy to hold
Ant

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