Global grain projections for '23/24

The USDA projects record high global production levels for corn, wheat and rice.



That will help offset major drops in shipments from Ukraine and Russia. US farmers should benefit from higher prices and importers will pay the those prices.

Is ethanol production from corn in the US dropping? Has me wondering…

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

It dropped during the pandemic and has been recovering since. It is still not back to 2019 levels.



I doubt it. The House budget proposal requires spending cuts in a lot of programs, but incentives for ethanol production are exempt from cuts.


That reminds me … I stopped at a local WaWa this week to get a drink and I noticed that they now sell gasoline without any ethanol … it was way more expensive than 10% ethanol gasoline, $4.239/gal versus $3.479 for the stuff with ethanol!

The USDA will make its projections, but IMO, it is way too early to accurately forecast US corn production for this year, for instance. For corn, the farmers just got done planting the seeds, and the growing plants have barely sprouted, if at all yet. Let’s find out how much it rains in Iowa and Illinois in June, July and August, to see what the actual crop looks like.

The one crop they probably have a good estimate right now is winter wheat. Winter wheat is planted earlier, so it is harvested earlier. Total production looks fairly normal this year, even though Kansas has been in drought.

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Current US drought monitor:

  • Pete