US corn crop forecast

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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The US Department of Agriculture recently issued its estimates for the US corn, soybean and wheat crops for this year. The latest forecasts are down slightly from previous estimates, but still look fairly good compared to recent years.

Corn
Total production of 15.1 billion bushels. This is up from 13.7 billion bushels last year.
Chart here.

Soybeans
Production of 4.21 billion bushels. This down slightly from last year.
Chart here.

Wheat
Production of 1.73 billion bushels, up slightly from last year.
Chart here.

There are still a few months to go in the growing season, so the final totals will likely change a little before the harvest in the fall. Winter wheat has already been harvested. Overall, things look pretty good for these three main grain crops.

  • Pete
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Commence crying from farmers that, due to rich harvests, they will not get as high a price as they would like.

Steve

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Anecdote warning! :upside_down_face:

In my region of Missouri Farm experience, the corn is short, the ears are few and the rain has been sparse.

It’s picking up some, but will likely not help anything but the fall beans.

This is the first year I can remember that none of the corn fields are tasseled out above my shoulder (Unless they are intensely irrigated)

Soybeans are more than 1 month behind, Wheat, similar.

For these farmers, they are already crying. When combined with the numbers above, I expect there will be little to celebrate come thanksgiving.

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Missouri is part of the South experiencing drought. Most of MN is in extreme drought, so no way to tell how crops will turn out until very shortly before harvest.

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US Corn Farmers Defy a Scorching Summer to Grow Record Crop
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-10/us-corn-farmers-defy-summer-drought-extreme-heat-for-a-record-crop?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg
The most widely grown US crop will total 15,234 billion bushels, the USDA said in its latest set of monthly estimates, surpassing the previous peak of 15.148 billion set in 2016…Corn futures subsequently sank in Chicago trading to their lowest in almost three years.

The bumper crop can be explained in part by advances in genetically modified seeds, which have improved the resilience of corn plants. But the biggest factor by far is the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

The war disrupted exports out of the Black Sea region and prompted global crop prices to surge. Farmers acted on that signal and planted more. America’s cornfields took up 10% more area than in 2022.

…people are less willing to buy new tractors and other pricey machinery when crop prices are easing. CNH Industrial, one of the world’s biggest farm machinery makers, said earlier this week it was reducing salaried workers by 5% as demand declines for its combine harvesters.

DB2

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