God willing and the creek don’t rise

[mostlylong]

Turns out the creek done rised.

• prices done rised

@WendyBG

(CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent … in August
after rising 0.1 percent in July … Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent

• gasoline done rised
  Gasoline near $4.30/gallon US average

• diesel done rised
  Diesel tops $6/gallon

@McLovin1981

Diesel is an important economic input because the vast majority of goods are transported by diesel power

• interest rates done rised
  The 10-year Treasury is near 4.95% - the highest level in nearly 20 years (since 2007)

@WendyBG

85% chance that the FOMC will raise the Fed funds rate

• supply chain pressure done rised

@WendyBG

Houthi militia has seized a strategic Red Sea island

@Goofyhoofy

saudi-arabia) shut down a crucial pipeline that allowed the kingdom to continue exporting crude oil after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz

Could it be, two months out from mid-terms, Iran and friends decided to done rise the pressure in the middle east?

Could it be, China, done rise its oil purchases at the same time?

These are interesting macroeconomic times.

GFC 2008 - interesting times
Covid - interesting
Iran debacle - here we go again

I thought the tariffs would make for more interesting times - and they did - but not to the degree that I initially expected.

Turns out our leadership is steadfast in its pursuit of interesting times.

[Leap1]

@McLovin1981

Diesel is an important economic input because the vast majority of goods are transported by diesel power

Shipping is conducted by buying contracts on the diesel fuel. The true cost of diesel is about to hit home. The old contracts have been used up.

[Goofyhoofy]

@Leap1

Shipping is conducted by buying contracts on the diesel fuel. The true cost of diesel is about to hit home. The old contracts have been used up.

The hedging contracts used by the major shippers - ocean transport, domestic trucking, cruise lines, etc are mostly 12 months, so the big hit in pricing won’t come until early next year (long after the elections). There are some which are of shorter duration, but the standard hedge is 12 months, I’m told.