I just updated my forecast for GOOG and get a price target of $124 - $130 for the next 9-18 months.
Targets
- Revenue : $300 - $310B
- EPS : $5.95 - $6.00 / share
Bear Case: $116 / share
Bull Case : $162 / share
tecmo
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Thanks for sharing. Y! gives average EPS estimates a little lower, $5.82/sh, although their revenue estimate is a little higher, $319.5B. Can I ask how you come about your estimates?
Well, its an estimate. My gut tells me that GOOG might buy back some shares which would improve EPS and they might turn up their margin dial by cutting some OpEx. Also my range was for a TTM value 3-5 quarters out, so it might take an extra quarter for TTM EPS to hit the $6.00 level.
The bigger impact will be the state of the market. If conditions continue to be bearish then a multiple under 20 is very likely; which would put the target at $120 or even less. Compare that with a bull market where the multipel might be as high as 30 in which case you could see prices maybe even reach $180. Its a big range! The good news is that the EPS value (and revenue) are very stable so business risk is not a concern.
The next bull market is just around the corner 
I have no doubt that GOOG will trade above 25x EPS at sometime in the next 5-10 years.
tecmo
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Just checked Yahoo
EPS : 2023 has a range of $4.71 to $6.73 so $5.95 - $6.00 is pretty much in line with what others are forecasting.
PS: TTM is currently at $5.03
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