Greenhouse Gas Emission Explode!

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Looks like we are losing the climate change war. :wink:

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It is important to recognize the sources of those carbon emissions. Below are the amounts of energy consumed in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific for the three main fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal). These numbers come from the latest edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy.

Oil, 2024, Exajoules
N. America 43.8
Europe 28.9
Asia-Pacific 75.9

Natural Gas, 2024, Exajoules
N. America 40.7
Europe 16.9
Asia-Pacific 35.0

Coal, 2024, Exajoules
N. America 8.48
Europe 7.62
Asia-Pacific 137.63
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There is one number that jumps out. Coal consumption is Asia much higher than elsewhere. Add in the fact that coal emits more CO2 per unit of energy than any other fossil fuel, and carbon emissions get even worse for Asia. As of 2024, 83% of the world’s coal is burned in Asia, mostly in China and India.

_ Pete

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The climate change war is much longer term than one graph of current conditions.

Carbon emissions are continuing to increase each year and are projected to rise by 1.1% by the end of 2025.Credit: Hendrik Schmidt/dpa via Alamy

Global fossil-fuel emissions are likely to hit yet another record high this year, scientists announced today at the COP30 UN climate summit in Belém, Brazil, but there are signs that the world is approaching a peak. Indeed, some researchers argue that carbon dioxide emissions might have already begun to decline, and many think that overall greenhouse-gas emissions (including methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases) could begin to decline by the end of the decade.

Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production are projected to rise by 1.1%, to 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2 this year, according to data published on 13 November by the Global Carbon Project, an international consortium of researchers who track carbon emissions.

Overall carbon emissions could decline slightly if a projected drop in deforestation and other land-use changes is factored in, but researchers warn that it’s still too early to say that the world has turned a corner on its fossil-fuel addiction (see ‘When will carbon emissions peak?’).

“We don’t [project] the global inflection point until around 2030, unfortunately, but it does look like emissions are flattening off,” says Bill Hare, a physicist who is head of Climate Analytics, a non-profit consultancy in Berlin that analyses the impact of global climate policies.

When will carbon emissions peak?. Line chart showing predicted global Greenhouse-gas emissions to 2023. Greenhouse-gas emissions have been increasing every year since 1990. When emissions will peak, by how much they will decline, depends on governmental policies and actions.
When will carbon emissions peak?. Line chart showing predicted global Greenhouse-gas emissions to 2023. Greenhouse-gas emissions have been increasing every year since 1990. When emissions will peak, by how much they will decline, depends on governmental policies and actions.751×540 69.8 KB

China has reduced emissions in 2025. We will see more reductions in 2026.

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It is no surprise that Asia has the largest coal consumption when 60% of the world’s people are Asians. North America is 7.8% and Europe is 9.1% of the world’s people.

North America burns more coal per capita than Europe and Asia.

North America burns more natural gas per capita than Europe and Asia.

North America burns more oil per capita than Europe and Asia.

Asia has the largest population, with over 4.9 billion people, making up nearly 60% of the world’s total. Africa is second, with about 1.5 billion people, followed by Europe with approximately 744 million, and North America with around 617 million. South America has a population of about 438 million, while Oceania has the smallest population at around 46 million.

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Does the earth (“global” climate change) care about per capita, or does it care about the overall number?

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I don’t think the earth cares one way or the other; it just exists.

JimA

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No. Asia’s per capita consumption of energy from coal is much higher than either Europe or North America.

Using your numbers for the populations of Asia, Europe and North America (A quick Google search tends to agree with your numbers.), and the energy consumption from coal from the Statistical Review of World Energy (2024 numbers).

Populations
Asia: 4.9 billion people
Europe: 0.744 billion
N. America: 0.617 billion

Energy from coal, Exajoules, 2024
Asia: 137.63 EJ
Europe: 7.62
N. America: 8.48

Exajoules of energy from coal per billion people
Asia: 28.09
Europe: 10.24
N. America: 13.74

Per capita energy from coal in Asia is twice that of North America.

_ Pete

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To be fair, the energy from coal numbers in the Statistical Review, for Asia, includes Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, etc). If we add the population of Oceania (46 million) to the population of Asia, this changes the per-capita coal consumption number a little, but not much.

A slightly more accurate calculation is therefore


Exajoules of energy from coal per billion people
Asia + Oceania: 27.83
Europe: 10.24
N. America: 13.74

China and India still dominate in the consumption of coal. Even if they level off in the next few years, they will still be burning huge amounts, and releasing huge amounts of CO2 into the air.

_ Pete

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I knew I should have put “care” in quotes!

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I would like to see the how Asia compares to North America in 2025. Will Asia’s adoption of clean energy show that it is getting faster at reducing coal consumption than North America.