GTLS - Using today's pop to get out!

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Hi all,

I have been meaning to dump this one for sometime. It’s been a non-performer, both as a stock and as a business, so I used today’s pop to get out. Just a look at some numbers shows how poorly this company is performing:
http://ir.chartindustries.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=89…

o Net sales for the year 2014 improved to $1,193.0 million, up 1.3% from 2013 net sales of $1,177.4 million. Gross profit for 2014 was $357.9 million, or 30.0% of sales, compared to $351.7 million, or 29.9% of sales, in the full year 2013.

Interpretation: Marginal improvement in sales and gross margin. There’s no growth here.

o Net income for the year 2014 was $81.9 million, or $2.67 per diluted share. This compares with net income of $83.2 million, or $2.60 per diluted share, for the year 2013.

Interpretation: No earnings growth.

Here’s the bit from the 2015 outlook:
oBased on our current backlog and order expectations, net sales for 2015 are expected to be in a range of $1.05 billion to $1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share are expected to be in a range of $1.60 to $2.10 per share with earnings weighted more to the second half of the year.

Interpretation: No sales growth continues, and please accept nice earnings decline.

I was puzzled to see today’s near 20% pop at one point. I sold at around 17% pop, and I 'm happy to have my cash back on this one.

Anyways, of course, I could be wrong, I am probably wrong, but I 'm sure of one thing. There are many other equally good if not better opportunities in the Rule Breakers scorecard. I 'm looking just at the Best Buy Nows and they look much better than this one.

Anirban

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I was puzzled to see today’s near 20% pop at one point. I sold at around 17% pop, and I 'm happy to have my cash back on this one.

How much did you get back? I am down 66% only now.

Vish

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So from the report:

- Record sales and operating income for 2014 on solid execution
- Strong balance sheet and liquidity to weather market uncertainty and capitalize on opportunities
- Robust 2014 operating cash flow of $119 million
- Cost reduction actions implemented in response to current energy environment

Classic lipstick on a pig

1 Like
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i wonder if the pop had to do with GTLS being picked in one of the fool services

-e

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Vish,

It was about a 50% loss for me. This was one of those picks where I had bought simply based on the recommendation without doing much due diligence. It at least reinforced the importance of reading earnings releases to determine how one would feel holding a company in one’s own portfolio. When I did look at it in some detail, I had a hard time thinking of this as a growth story. It’s execution seems to suggest the opposite but I held because the valuation looked cheap. My thinking was:

  1. I will cut it if I need to raise cash
  2. I will cut it if it reports another bad quarter.

The earnings release confirmed (2); poor results and we have to look forward to poor results in 2015 as well. The pop was just coincidental. In fact, just yesterday in an email exchange with Chris I had noted that GTLS was on my list for cutting and times’s running out.

Anirban.

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Not sure Ethan. I only subscribe to one portfolio service and this wasn’t a recommendation there.

Anirban.

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it won in the supernova explorer shoot out for depressed oil stocks

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Sounds “cool” Ethan - is that a good thing or a bad thing?

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Here’s a take on the earnings from the free side of TMF:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/02/24/3-key-takea…

Anirban

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i don’t understand your message

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Ethan, apologies, I wasn’t really trying to make any point. I was sharing the earnings coverage from the free side of TMF just as another viewpoint, just in case anyone here is interested in Chart Industries.

As to my opinion, which is worth not much I must say, I sold GTLS today as I think it’s going to suffer in 2015 (with improvements expected in the second half of 2015 per management). I figured this little pop will help me eek out a little bit more out of this position.

I 'm consider reinvesting it in companies I understand better and ones that are showing nice positive growth trajectories. There are quite a few good options for me to consider adding to including XPO, CRTO, TRIP, FB, BOFI, and INBK immediately come to mind. There are stalwarts such as PCLN and SBUX to which I could add some more. I could also nibble some on SCTY and TSLA. Lots of good options.

I have been also thinking of starting a position in Discovery Communications … but haven’t had time to dig into it.

For the time being, I might just let the cash sit. My brokerage account only has about 1% cash until the next cash infusion.

Anirban

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Sorry anirban, I was actually replying to anthonyms but used poor internet etiquette and didn’t specify who I was directing that message to. After rereading my reply it sounds short but I meant it as I truly don’t understand what he means, not in any way of being offended and I didn’t mean to sound curt.

Anirban, I totally agree with your reasoning and I always appreciate you and others sharing their reasonings on the board. This is what makes the community so great and strong.

-e

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Here’s a take on the earnings from the free side of TMF:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/02/24/3-key-takea……

Hi, Anirban, Even that take from MF doesn’t sound very positive. You probably did well to get out.
Saul

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Hi Ethan - I was asking what a “supernova shoot out” is. I’m not on Supernova and I’m a brit so please excuse me if I’m not getting Supernova jargon or even just every day speak.
Ant

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A supernova is a star having its 15 posthumous minutes of Andy Warhol fame. :wink:

Denny Schlesinger

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For those who may not know around TMF Supernova is also the name of a premium service that focuses only on all Rule Breaker recs and David G’s recs from Stock Advisor to create various portfolios. SN is a portfolio service and charges premium rates. SN has various “missions” one of which is labeled Exploration, which every few weeks compares several SN companies with each other and then declares a winner.

D

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I was asking what a “supernova shoot out” is.

Hi Ant, each month the Supernova analysts do a deep dive into 4 of David Gardner’s recs from SA/RB and vote for the best opportunity for market-beating performance over the next three years. This month the 4 companies were all in the fields of oil and NG.

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Hi, Ant and everyone, Just to share a little explanation about SuperNova…

‘SuperNova’ is one of the portfolio services here at TMF. It has several different kinds of portfolios that they manage and/or stock picking challenges to follow including the portfolio services Odyssey, Phoenix 1 and 2, and the ‘stock picking’ challenges Explorer 1 and 2 (and a couple more).

The one that is referred to above is the Explorer 1 stock picking ‘challenge’, if you will, where nine TMF writers/analysts compare four stocks in two rounds and vote on the one they think will perform the best at the end of a three year time frame.

Every month there is a group of four different stocks under consideration, and they usually fall under a theme–like this month the theme was “A Jolt Of Energy”–so we were given four stocks that typically are under-loved or under-followed that have to do with the energy sector to compare and analyze and then we shared our explanations and vote.

I think the Explorer Mission is meant more as a learning exercise for the subscribers than an actual recommendation to buy for their portfolios; however, if one has extra capacity to invest and likes the analyses, of course the stock pick is one to consider buying. It is useful to point out that this is an actual real money portfolio for The Motley Fool, as the company buys $20,000 of each winning stock to hold for three years. So they have significant skin in the game.

So, there you have more than you probably wanted to know about SuperNova and Explorer. SuperNova isn’t for every investor, however if you are interested in knowing more about it, there is always the option of signing up when they have the next membership sign-up, then check out the service, the forums, and the advice , and then if you don’t like it or it’s not what you wanted, you can get a full refund with no questions asked within a certain time frame (I think it’s 30 days but you would have to confirm that when you sign up). Or if you like, email me privately and I’ll try to answer your questions.

So, I don’t mean to monopolize the thread or be too much of a saleslady for SuperNova, but I thought an explanation might be helpful.

Fool on!
J.
SuperNova Explorer

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