My daily run last night switched signal, it says:
Timing: Disconfirm recession, stay IN stocks
Timing: IN stocks (-1.2% vs. SMA) (# 3 consecutive weeks) not in recession
That changed from the day before. What changed? The FRED Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales just updated on 2022-08-17 7:39 AM CDT to include the month of July. It is now YOY positive.
The Industrial Production Total Index has been YOY positive for several months now.
Both indicators now indicate to disconfirm a recession.
Take it as you will.
FWIW, my weekly signals since YTD (note: for information only, only act on the signal at the end of month):
1/02/22 IN
1/09/22 IN
1/16/22 IN
1/23/22 IN
1/30/22 IN
2/06/22 IN
2/13/22 IN
2/20/22 IN
2/27/22 IN
3/06/22 IN
3/13/22 IN
3/20/22 IN
3/27/22 IN
4/03/22 IN
4/10/22 IN
4/17/22 OUT
4/24/22 OUT
5/01/22 OUT (S&P 500 4,130.61)
5/08/22 OUT
5/15/22 OUT
5/22/22 OUT
5/29/22 OUT
6/05/22 IN
6/12/22 IN
6/19/22 IN
6/26/22 IN
7/03/22 IN (S&P 500 3,781.00)
7/10/22 OUT
7/17/22 OUT
7/24/22 OUT
7/31/22 OUT
8/07/22 IN
8/14/22 IN
8/21/22 IN (S&P 500 4,273.13 as of 8/18/22)
# Timing rules: sell when 1 weeks more than 2% below 43 week SMA.
# unless FRED data shows not in recession.
Timing: IN stocks (-1.2% vs. SMA) (# 3 consecutive weeks) not in recession