Updating the most common S&P 500 timing indicators this eve’.
Get your check books ready.
10 Month SMA: The S&P 500 is above its 10 month SMA and would have to fall by more than 110 points by next Tuesday in order to not trigger an end-of-month buy signal. That’s three really red trading days in a row. Think we’ll see it?
The 40 week SMA: The S&P500 closed >3% above the 40 week SMA today. It needs to fall only about 5 points by close tomorrow in order to avoid triggering an end-of-week buy signal.
The 200 Day SMA: The S&P500 needs to close another ~17 points higher to go 3% above the 200 day SMA. It can easily do this tomorrow.
The 99 Day New High: The highest close of the last 99 trading days was 4110.41, on Mon, 12 Sep 22. Today’s close is only about 50 points below that. Close enough to establish a new high in the next week or two barring a big rollover. (the one I’ve been waiting for!)
Now, I’m probably the least sophisticated chart watcher here. How do the wiser among you see things?
I mentioned 2 weeks ago that NH-NL turned bullish in the post below. Since then, QQQ is up almost 7% and SPY is up 6%.
That being said, I consider market timing to be a total waste of energy. Retired people who have 3 to 5 years of living expenses in cash are better off having a fixed percentage allocation to stocks and bonds, rebalance that annually, and enjoy life.
In addition, there was a classically bullish Zweig “breadth thrust” 2 weeks ago, an indicator of a huge accumulation of equities in a short period of time by institutions.
As I’ve posted, several intermediate term market breadth and trend indicators have flipped to bullish, including NH/NL.
And as we’ve historically discussed ad infinitum, it’s not really “market timing”; it’s playing defense against the big downturns like the bear that started in January of '22. Is the ice safe to start walking and skating on? or are you likely to fall through and get wet? With this group of indicators, it is either relatively “safe” to invest in equities, or not. They’re all about trend, and demand for equities. Consensus of several primary and coincident indicators matters more than any one.
Anecdote: I cut my losses almost in half from staying fully invested by following the signals - limited losses and preserved capital.
Just noticed another. I’ve never heard anybody else mention this but I noticed it about 15 years ago while looking at the aforementioned indicators. The fast moving (usually depicted as blue) MACD line is about to cross north of the Zero-Line. That one has a high degree of consistency.
You’re right. It’s not Market timing . It’s risk management
***** NOTE: ******
Have probably confused some people. The fast moving (Blue) MACD line crossing above the Zero line being reliable as a major trend change indicator is referring to the WEEKLY MACD. NOT the daily. We apologize for any inconvenience.