I’m reading “Regime Change” (great book, btw), and the section I’m on right now is about the lead up to the war with Iran. There were people in the administration trying to counsel Trump against the war and pointing out how much of what he wanted to accomplish was very unlikely to succeed. But Trump had a good ‘feeling’ about it, after listening to Netanyahu’s pitch.
Trump was riding high from the Venezuela intervention and no doubt over confident. Also, he is not a deep thinker and likes to go with his gut. So, here we are.
Whatever you want to call it, it has been a spectacular blunder.
When you boil it down, most military blunders come down to wishful thinking. This misadventure has been an absolutely epic example of this.
The US spent two decades and a several trillion dollars learning how extremely difficult it is to install a friendly government in a foreign country–even if you have boots on the ground.
Somehow, someone used a neuralyzer on the current US leadership and they decided all we had to do was kill the top leaders, and then a new, compliant Iranian government would spontaneously form. I don’t understand why they thought that would happen. But they trusted their wishful thinking over the painful lessons of the past.
And when Plan A didn’t work, there was no Plan B. That’s how firmly our leaders believed in their fantasies. We didn’t have ground troops ready to deploy just in case, we didn’t have enough carriers ready to go, the Iranians blew up our bases, and we shot all our munitions.
Back in March, we had several threads discussion why the US was cooked. @albaby1 in particular explained very lucidly why all of the US military options only lead to worse outcomes.
We’re so stuck that last week the POTUS threatened to bomb Oman–a US ally. Imagine that. The best idea US planners can come up to defeat Iran is to attack our allies. The mind reels.
So, we’ll continue to waste tens of billions a month until there is a regime change in the US. Then we will pack up and go home. Sadder, but no wiser.
I’m still wondering how this is happening. Where is the money coming from? Did Congress release funds I am unaware of (possible, since I was on a ship for the past month).
Agreed, it was a huge blunder. And everything he does just makes it worse (e.g. more bombing, threatening allies, etc). IMO, the best (or least bad) thing we can do is just walk away. And then rebuild our stockpiles of munitions since we are almost out of several categories of weapons.
Albaby seems to think the economic impact will be short-lived. I’m not so sure. When you fire guns in the air, you don’t know where the bullets are going to come down. That’s what we’ve done to the region. Some things we know, like Iran now OWNS the Strait. The Iranian regime is, if anything, stronger than this time last year. Lots of things we don’t know, but will find out.
The rumor mill is form other sources such as Navy payroll, which got depleted, and the next rumor is that payroll is being met by getting money from other sources. In short, we’ve nearly bankrupted our military in addition to using up a ton of missiles and defenses. Watch for a big, big budgetary ask for the military based on “protecting the homeland”.
No, I think that the price that Iran can meaningfully charge for passage through the Strait is somewhat limited to about a buck or two per barrel. The economic impact of this fustercluck overall will be significant and long-lived.
Yes technically you are correct. I was incorrect when I said that the current administration will double the defense budget in one year. Actually it is a 65% increase, which is the largest single year increase in peacetime, and the largest dollar amount in american history in peacetime.
I submit by the end of 2027 there will be additional requests adding another $180bil. to the 2027 military budget.
Another lost in the sands engagement by the Republican Party, achieving nothing as usual.