Have we become Monaco?

US President William McKinley, who held office from 1897 to 1901, promoted high tariffs which concentrated wealth in the hands of industrialists while workers were expected to earn low wages and commodity prices were kept relatively low. The earnings difference between those who were at the top of the food chain, as well as those of the new “Middle Class” of small business owners and professionals (doctors, lawyers, etc.)and the “Working Class” that even middle-class homes were expected to employ at least one “domestic” servant. That said the value of a US dollar was (domestically) significant (I have one of my grandfather’s payroll books from his electrical contracting firm in 1912 and his electricians eared $5 a week, but he was earning $15 a week at the time.
The1913 Revenue Act began the process of replacing the high tariffs of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries with an income tax, thus shifting the burden of funding the treasury from ordinary Americans through tariffs to wealthier Americans through what became a “progressive” income tax.

I live in New York City, which is blessed with a triple income tax (Federal, State, City), which makes it the most highly taxed spot in the US. Back in the late 1980’s and 1990’s, when I was financially “banging them out of the park” my effective total income tax rate (after massaging in the allowable legal deductions) was something like 42%-44%. I just finished doing my income tax filing and, with nominal earnings the same order of magnitude (though I’m sure inflation has reduced its purchasing power) my effective total income tax rate was about 28%.

In addition, with some exceptions (i.e. most food other than candy, etc., clothing under $110, medicine) there is a 9% sales tax on purchases of all goods and services. This has been our local approach to the way most other countries tax purchases which is by incorporating a VAT (value added tax) where a portion of the purchase price is an included tax (depending on country, generally between 10%-17%). This is a form of taxation which would normally be a target by “progressives” who would (accurately) point out that the wealthy buy a much smaller portion of their income than the “average” wage-earner.
(Tongue in cheek, sarcastically:)
We have two financial problems in this country – our national deficit and that pesky, hugely annoying (in my case 28%) income tax. This was a “gift” from a series of federal administrations, significantly helped by Congressional action during the previous Trump administration as a “temporary” cut in tax rate.

We live in an environment which has been heavily “social engineered” by a dependence for “news” on social media where people seem willing to “religiously” believe any line of garbage which is fed to them. In a land where most either didn’t take economics in school, forgot what they “learned” or learned it, but through a form of “double-think” choose to ignore it. Tarriff saree NOT a tax paid by the source of the good, but rather are no different than those VAT taxes – with the exception that they are almost a random portion of the price (the price of those Levi jeans would be different if they were made in, say, Bangladesh or in Indonesia), but would only bring their production back to a US factory if they could be made in highly automated domestic factory for less.

So, the government claims that they will collect “trillions” of dollars based on the tariffs. Let’s say they are correct. That means that the population has largely been dupped into believing that the VAT which was just announced is a just punishment against “those countries which have, for years, taken advantage of us”, rather than simply a sales tax until one of two conditions are met:
A factory is built in the US which is able to produce the commodity at the same price or less
By pledging fealty (and paying enough) to the current political regime to “carve out” that particular slice of the tax

So, what will the government do with this sudden windfall of tax money? Well, the priority for the movers and shakers is using the money (along with the recent “saving” accrued by the carving up of Executive department agencies) to continue those wonderful tax breaks for the wealthy. In a “perfect world” the balance should be used to pay down the national debt, but my guess is it will be used to fund new methods for the “job creator” class to skim off the balance.

In the meantime, my guess is there will be a major effort to reduce the value of the US dollar. While there are many reasons why this might be advantageous, my concern is that their method will cause the USD being used as the sole trade platform to be weakened to the point that US debt will no longer be mandatory (to the same extent) to be held by other countries – causing financial chaos in international (and US) markets. (Recent gold price moves indicate that I may not be the only one to recognize this risk).

The ride is about to become “interesting”.
Jeff

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Some years ago, I ran an experiment; I did not take my normal distribution from my conventional IRA. My income was entirely SS, divis and cap gains. Total income for the year was a bit more than what I made at the day job, before retiring. The difference was that W2 wages in 2011 resulted in a few thousand of income tax due. The tax on a higher amount of passive income, was zero. Couldn’t believe it. Worked everything out, by hand, a second time. Yup. Zero tax.

Yes, we are headed for a “golden age”, for those with passive, income.

Meanwhile, I am watching today’s $66 drop in Parker Hannifin with interest. Thought about it at $400. Then it flew to $700. Now, it has given up nearly half of that rise. Not grabbing a falling knife, but it’s getting interesting.

My oils are being slaughtered. One air raid on Kharg Island, or invasion of Venezuela (because, “terrorists”), or embargo of Canadian crude that has no other exit to markets, and my oils will be happy.

Steve

Indeed, by a factor of 2.5 so your income is quite different than it was in 1990.

DB2

I’ve started thinking about a high-end home builder, Toll Brothers. Lumber is exempt from the current tariffs, interest rates are dropping, high-end buyers are less economically sensitive and there is still the on-going housing shortage.

DB2

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blink, are you sure about that? The US and Canada have been in a tariff war over lumber for years/decades. Thing is, with the US a weights and measures backwater, how many sawmills in other countries produce lumber to US specifications?

Steve

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Right, but nothing new. From earlier today:

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-03-2025/card/what-products-and-which-countries-are-exempted-from-trump-s-tariffs--qN2fmWrIFejrHBSVD8g5
The White House said a number of goods and economies will be exempted from the reciprocal tariff policies. These include…
- Copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber, all of which may be subject to future tariffs, the White House warned.

DB2

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@OrmontUS - While you post on an unpleasant topic, nice to see yah on the boards. The brokerage with most of my self-managed port is taking a drubbing today. Still, I’m scouring the market names

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Oil, too, I see. What surprise.

I looked over the full list, three times. I don’t see either Canada or Mexico on the"reciprocal" list. Those two countries are on the special punitive list, with 25% tariffs.

Steve

Canadian oil is tariffed at 10%, Mexican at 25%. TIG has stopped Chevron lifting oil from Venezuela. Is there anyplace else that the US still imports crude from, in significant quantity?

Steve

My cash account, which is mostly utilities and consumer non-durables is doing pretty well. Stryker is taking a hit. The IRA is downright nasty. That is where the oils are.

Steve

Mexico and Canada Stand to Gain U.S. Market Share
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-02-2025/card/mexico-and-canada-stand-to-gain-u-s-market-share-sNmz74susugqF6ZIA7ba
The new reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump are relatively good news for Mexico and Canada and could result in the further expansion of the two countries into U.S. markets, said Luis de la Calle, an economic consultant in Mexico City.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade-agreement partners are absent from the list of countries facing additional U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday.

“It’s positive that Mexico and Canada have preference over the rest of the world,” he said, noting that both countries are excluded for now from the hefty tariff hikes imposed on other countries.

DB2

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There is if you are in California. Two-thirds of its oil is from foreign imports. The leading suppliers are Iraq, Brazil, Guyana and Ecuador.

DB2

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While it was stated that the tariffs were “reciprocal” and implied that our tariffs were ½ those applied by each of our trading partners, in reality, the administration used quite a simple calculation: the country’s trade deficit divided by its exports to the United States times 1/2. That left important trading partners like Lesotho (the poorest nation on earth) with a rate of 50% (as was equally well-know Saint Pierre & Miquelon), Madagascar at 47% (stock up on vanilla now) and thee Falkland Islands at 42%. Interestingly, despite the fiscal bloodshed among friends and foes alike, Russia does not appear on the list of those countries with tariff increases (See the full list of reciprocal tariffs by country from Trump's "Liberation Day" chart - CBS News).

Jeff

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China has been saber rattling the last couple of days (shaking up TSM). If I was a conspiracy nut, I might think that there was a grand deal in-the-making between the US (Greenland), Russia (Ukraine), China (Taiwan) and Israel (all sorts of bits and pieces).

But that would be insane. Wouldn’t it?

Jeff

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Over the years, I have purchased pairs of jeans that were made in Lesotho. Export of clothing, and purchase of next to nothing Shiny, is probably behind the steep tariff.

Last December, Penney’s had a BOGO sale on jeans and shirts, so I picked up two of each. One pair of jeans was made in Mexico (25%), the other pair were made in Pakistan (29%) and both shirts were made in Bangladesh (37%)

Steve

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I am currently waiting for a new Samsung phone (probably manufactured in China) from Google Fi (at half the price Amazon charges) and a silicon protective back from Temo (China) at a fraction of the cost on E-Bay.

I’m guessing these offers are currently on life-support, soon to be terminal.

Jeff

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@steve203 - For oil supplier, Motiva refinery is strictly supplied by Aramco (Saudis) crude, and is the primary/only “offtaker”

@OrmontUS - The Samsung phone manufacturer and assembly location might surprise you – South Korea, Vietnam and India. Do you feel liberated?

Interest rates may or may not drop, indeed with the stoking of inflation it seems likely that the Fed will not have any further rate drops, and might go the other way.

And lumber is tariffed, and that tariff could be expanded with (like all the others) the stroke of a pen:

* **Current Tariffs:**

The U.S. currently applies a combined anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duty of 14.54% on Canadian softwood lumber imports.

  • Anti-dumping and Anti-subsidy Duties:

These duties were initiated after the expiration of the 2006 Canada-US softwood lumber settlement agreement in 2016.

  • Potential for Further Increases:

The Commerce Department has indicated that it may further increase these tariffs in the future, possibly doubling the 14.5% rate, which could lead to a total tariff rate of over 50%.

  • Impact on the Lumber Industry:

These tariffs have a significant impact on the Canadian lumber industry, which is a major supplier of softwood lumber to the U.S.

  • NAHB’s Position:

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has been actively fighting against these tariffs, as they negatively impact housing affordability.

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