Have you seen the movie Wall-E?

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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intercst

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Conversely, a third of US jobs would be difficult to replace with AI because they have uniquely human attributes, such as nursing, the analysis found. Some 70 per cent of the tasks performed by carers and other healthcare workers require the kind of physical presence, empathy, care and dexterity that machines cannot replicate.

Not to worry, once robots are perfected these folks can be canned!
Shareholder Value!
And stratospheric stock options and bonuses for CEOs. A perfect world for the masters of the universe!

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I know, right? Just look at how the development of the internet and incredibly advanced software has decimated employment in the accounting sector over the last 35 years, for example:

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image1324Ă—529 44 KB

All Employees, Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services (CES6054120001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

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It increased to meet population growth & job growth.

Also the speed at which AI performs can lead to headcount decrease.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-productivity-gains-from-using-ai/

This infographic compares the time taken to complete work tasks with and without the use of generative AI, highlighting productivity gains.
This infographic compares the time taken to complete work tasks with and without the use of generative AI, highlighting productivity gains.1200Ă—1560 517 KB

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Sure. But accounting software is incredibly advanced today, compared to what it was in 1990. And yet it hasn’t decimated accounting jobs, in the literal sense or the figurative sense. There are more folks employed in that field (even relative to population) than there were 35 years ago.

Sometimes technology destroys a field (bye bye travel agencies), but it’s also very common for those advances to have a radical impact without really reducing overall employment in the sector.

Speed of performance doesn’t necessarily mean you have less people working in an area (the lump of labor fallacy). If an individual gets vastly more productive doing a thing, one rational economic response is that a lot more of that thing gets demanded. For example, each of those accounting people that exists today is vastly more productive with their accounting software than the folks in 1990. The reason we have even more accounting people today than back in 1990 is because we are producing a lot more “accounting stuff” than we used to.

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I’m still trying to find one of those people who predicted that computers were going to eliminate paper, because we’d all swish our memos and spreadsheets around with electrons instead of graphite marks on pulp-stock.

Lucky for me I paid no attention. Put my entire fortune into carbon paper. Still have some around, I think.

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Ask and it shall be delivered unto thee:

Historical Prediction: The Paperless Office

  1. Paul Saffo (1992)

    • Paul Saffo, a futurist at the Institute for the Future, predicted that paper would become “irrelevant in business environments.” ORCA+1

    • He compared paper to horses vs. cars: “horses are still around … but they are ridden by hobbyists.” ORCA

  2. John Markoff and Other Futurists (~1994)

    • In a Wired piece from 1994, technology commentators (including John Markoff) argued that flat-panel displays and other digital technologies would eventually “surpass paper.” WIRED

    • They predicted that as display technologies improved, the “paperless office” could become a reality. WIRED

  3. Wang Laboratories (1980s)

    • Some early computer companies (e.g., Wang Labs) promoted systems that could scan documents and store them digitally, claiming this would reduce or eliminate the need for physical paper. WIRED+1

Pete

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I don’t know what the tech billionaires have planned for AI, but I highly doubt it will be good for society. I guess you could say I’m feeling the Bern!

If the tech billionaires really thought AI would provide us with a “rainbows and unicorns” type utopia, why are so many building super secure self-sustaining bunkers?

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Because such bunkers, especially located in pristine near wilderness (Patagonia, New Zealand, some islands….) are the super status tokens of the moment, and the zillionaires have to do something with all that money….

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