Hello Jim,
As I just said to said2, (pardon the pun), it’s wonderful to correspond after so many years of enjoying your thoughts and writing.
Not really. They were aimed at a very small private audience
Thanks for considering my suggestion. I respect your decision. I totally accept that private correspondence with friends, vs public correspondence for internet crowds, are quite different in nature.
Besides, I’m embarrassed at the many bad predictions : )
I don’t think you should feel embarrassed about some past predictions not being great. It might feel far worse if they HAD all turned out spectacularly well but you hadn’t bet the house on all of them…
I think too, if anyone’s past predictions don’t seem naive & silly to their future self, then it’s a clear sign that a person hasn’t grown in wisdom over the years. The price of long-lasting wisdom can be paid either in dollars, pounds, or social embarrassment.
The only way to really put one’s thoughts to the test is to put something at stake - whether it’s money or reputation among friends. And without ever putting ourselves to the test, how can we improve as investors?
‘Bad predictions’ are where both the volume and detail of life’s learning occurs, especially when they are revisited and reflected upon later, to analyze both the mistake, and the form of thinking & assumptions & models that lead to the mistake.
Things like newsletters (or similar public ‘position essays’) are best of all, because it is not merely a chance comment at that point that turned out well or badly - it’s a structured, contemplated block of thought and conclusion.
Like the difference between playing a round of sport on a fun/casual basis, or a competitive basis, among friends.
Certainly, in Buffett’s essays, the parts I have learned the most from are those where he describes his past folly, and WHY it was clearly folly.
I think it’s wonderful and educational to chuckle at our own historical ‘oops’. Of course, it’s easy for me to say that, as someone who only began posting ideas here just hours ago.
LM